Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20

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1 week 5 days ago #783970 by Bob Brogan
Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20 was created by Bob Brogan
Two meetings left to doomsday

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1 week 5 days ago #783976 by Dave Scott
Dave Scott on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
Happy Valley also an option?

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1 week 5 days ago #783989 by PeterD
Two runners before the close:
Silver Fountain found the Cape Town fields too strong, and has been in PE for a few weeks. She has worked on the poly and while there are a couple of useful fillies in this race, she should have an ew chance.
Twin Falls has been in good form, but unfortunately drawn out very wide. She handles the poly, but I think is more comfortable on turf. Will need a lot of luck to score so no great expectations but hoping she can find a place.
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1 week 5 days ago #783995 by Magi

Dave Scott wrote: Happy Valley also an option?


Always Dave..... love it !!

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1 week 5 days ago #783996 by aluminium
aluminium on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
R1 HOLLYWOOD THUNDER
R2 BILLI ANN
R3 JACKPOT JEWEL
R4 MALDIVES
R5 LION KING
R6 CAPTAIN'S PRINCESS
R7 LOVE TALK
R8 FORGET O'GIRLS

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1 week 5 days ago #784000 by Sammy Silver
Sammy Silver on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
ULTRA BOOST to get it right today at 7-1!!

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1 week 5 days ago #784004 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
TRAINER COMMENTS and Nadine’s 1st four selections

RACE 1 :

1st four selections

8 / 1 / 3 / 4

• GAVIN SMITH - Numbers 1 and 5 - HOLLYWOOD THUNDER & ROYAL SPLURGE : Hollywood Thunder is nothing if not consistent! She has a chance again here. Royal Splurge is holding form and will be thereabouts.

• ALAN GREEFF - Number 8 - ALL THE STARS : She’s definitely got a shout but running green has cost her in both starts so far, so just hoping she doesn’t need this one from an educational point of view too.

SHARON KOTZEN - Number 2 - SILVER FOUNTAIN : New to the yard she tries both the 1300m and the Poly for the first time. She is drawn well and has shown pace at work, so we are hoping for a fair run.

DUNCAN MCKENZIE - Number 4 - QUEEN MAKEDA : She is honest and is coming to hand.

JACQUES STRYDOM - Number 7 - TEQUILA MARIA : Hoping for improvement.

RACE 2 :

1st four selections

1 / 2 / 5 / 4

• GAVIN SMITH - Numbers 1 and 4 - LADY OF CHOICE & GREEN EDITION : Lady of Choice was unlucky in her last and should go well again. Hoping for improvement from Green Edition.

• JUAN NEL - Number 2 - SALVADORA : She is fit and well and has claims here.

JACQUES STRYDOM - Number 5 and 6 - BILLI ANN & QUEEN NITOCRIS : Billi Ann is trying so hard, she ran such a gutsy race on Friday and will be there again. Hoping for improvement from Queen Nitocris.

STEPHEN LERENA - Number 7 - KAYLEX : She has been disappointing and will try further here, I am hoping for improvement.

RACE 3 :

1st four selections

3 / 1 / 2 / 6

• GAVIN SMITH - Numbers 1 and 7 - FALLING FOR YOU & GREY FERRARI : Falling for You enjoys track and trip and will be thereabouts. Grey Ferrari is improving with each run and will be thereabouts.

• SHARON KOTZEN - Numbers 3 and 4 - JACKPOT JEWEL & UP EARLY : Jackpot Jewel debuts on Poly, he is drawn well and ran a very good race in his last so we are hoping he can follow up. Up Early is new to the yard and also debuts on Poly. This will be a learning curve with him as his work is decent but he could need further. Hoping for a decent run.

STEPHEN LERENA - Number 5 - SILVER STONE : He improved well in his last and on advice from the jockey aboard that day, Richard Fourie, he is trying further and the blinkers are off. Hoping for further improvement.

GRANT PADDOCK - Number 2 - GHALYOON : He doesn’t give much away at work and debuting in PE also has his first start on Poly. Hoping for improvement.

RACE 4 :

1st four selections

3 / 7 / 2 / 6

• ALAN GREEFF - Numbers 1, 6 and 7 - SKYDANCER, GIACOMO & MIGHTY ROCK : All three have a shout in an open field. Skydancer has not been far off of late. Giacomo had excuses for his last and is capable of better. Mighty Rock is in steady form.

• GAVIN SMITH - Numbers 3 and 12 - KNIGHT OWL & TWICE A POET : Knight Owl pulled hard early in his last and is expected to improve. Twice a Poet is working well and I am also hopeful of improvement from him.

SHARON KOTZEN - Number 8 - MALDIVES : He ran a great last to leave the maidens but does take on stronger having his first run out the maidens. It is an open field and we do feel further will suit so he is not without chance.

JACQUES STRYDOM - Numbers 5 and 9 - KING CAPONE & HOPEFUL : King Capone ended up with too much to do in his last, better is expected and he can find the frame. Hopeful is well in herself and she has beaten the boys before. She will enjoy being back on the Poly.

STEPHEN LERENA - Number 10 - LATEST CRAZE : He has been finding himself a little outpaced in his recent races so tries a touch further here.

GRANT PADDOCK - Numbers 2 and 11 - JURSIT & NINJINSKY’S SON : Both horses are not well in at weights due to the conditions of the race. Jurist is in good form though and I am hoping for a repeat of his last performance. Ninjinsky’s Son is also fit and well and is expected to put in a better run than his last.

RACE 5 :

1st four selections

2 / 5 / 6 / 1

• TARA LAING - Number 2 - LION KING : He ran a good second in his last and must have a good chance.

• ALAN GREEFF - Number 5 - MARMARA SEA : He won his maiden well and does take on stronger, but in an open field he can be competitive.

GAVIN SMITH - Numbers 6 and 8 - ROYAL FORT & DUET : Royal Fort ran a very good race in his last and should be right there. Duet has been drawn wide in his last two and with a better draw here could place.

JACQUES STRYDOM - Numbers 1 and 9 - BENEFICIARY & HONEY SUITE : Beneficairy flew late in her last, she’s a runner. Honey Suite is never far back and has a place chance.

RACE 6 :

1st four selections

1 / 2 / 9 / 4

• ALAN GREEFF - Numbers 1, 2, 3, 5 and 9 - CAUSE AND EFFECT, CAPTAIN’S PRINCESS, RINGS AND THINGS, CAPTAIN’S CHOICE & STREAM OF KINDNESS : Cause and Effect ran a great race in decent company in her last, she is in with a winning chance. Likewise for Captain’s Choice whose debuted well against the boys in her last. Rings and Things is well drawn, hoping for improvement. Captain’s Choice tries further, perhaps a place chance. Streams of Kindness will love being back on Poly, she will enjoy being back over the 1300m and though in a strong field she could place.

• JACQUES STRYDOM - Numbers 4 and 9 - SAO PAULO & TRAVEL IN STYLE : Sao Paulo loves the Poly and is always a runner on it. Travel in Style was unlucky in her last, she is holding form well and has a chance here.

STEPHEN LERENA - Number 7 - FLAMING OPAL : She is a nice filly and will debut on Poly. Drawn well I am expecting a decent run.

TARA LAING - Number 8 - SEATTLE TANGO : She bumps quite a tough field but has a light weight and she has a chance here.

GAVIN SMITH - Number 10 - MATTINA : She is holding form but does bump a competitive field.

RACE 7 :

1st four selections

8 / 1 / 6 / 4

• GAVIN SMITH - Numbers 3 and 5 - CLOUD ATLAS & LOVE TALK : Cloud Atlas is working well she has a place chance. Love Talk is working well and must be included in everything.

•ALAN GREEFF - Numbers 4, 6, 8 and 9 - BLACK GARDENIA, MISS ORANGE, ELUSIVE DIVA & LIND LOVES LACE : Black Gardenia was a good winner in her last. Likewise for Miss Orange. Elusive Diva disappointed in her last, but much better is expected. They all are runners. Linda loves Lace left the maidens in her last and takes on stronger.

TARA LAING - Number 7 - CLOUD BREAK : She did run second in her last but that was in a Novice Plate where she was very well weighted. She is back to handicap company here, does need her merit rating to drop and she could perhaps place.

SHARON KOTZEN - Number 2 - TWIN FALLS : She has run two very good recent races and though she does unfortunately have the draw to beat, she is certainly not without chance.

RACE 8 :

1st four selections

7 / 10 / 11 / 12

• TARA LAING - Number 1 - DEEP RIVER WOMAN : She loves the Poly, does take a step back in trip, but does have a chance.

• ALAN GREEFF - Numbers 10 and 12 - TAWNY JET & LADYSMITH : Tawny Jet will enjoy being back over the mile and will be competitive. Ladysmith tries further, she is always consistent and always in with a shout.

DUNCAN MCKENZIE - Number 14 - SALUBRIOUS : She has been disappointing of late, I am hoping for improvement and she does seem at her best on Poly.

GAVIN SMITH - Numbers 2, 6 and 13 - GINA’S GIRL, FORGET O’ GIRLS & NEVERTHELESS : Gina’s is Girl expected to improve. Forget O’ Girls won her maiden well, she takes on stronger here. Hoping for improvement from Nevertheless.

SHARON KOTZEN - Numbers 3 and 5 - CHERRY POP & EFFORT : Cherry Pop ran a cracker in the 1300m. She takes her chances here in the mile with no 1300m available for awhile and does have a bit of weight to carry from a very wide draw. She is fit and well though and a nice run is expected. Effort was disappointing last time out, it was over shorter though, she will be better suited to the mile and improvement is expected.

STEPHEN LERENA - Number 4 - SAMARRA : She is back to the course and distance she ran such a nice race over in her first start in PE. This is the right division for her and I am hoping she regains her form.

JACQUES STRYDOM - Number 8 - FLAME OF FIRE : She has been a bit disappointing of late but she is working so well and is capable of better.

GRANT PADDOCK - Number 9 - BRIDESMAID BLUES : She is up in class now out the maidens and is working well, but could prefer Turf.

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1 week 5 days ago #784005 by Loopy Logic
Loopy Logic on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
R1: Start with a GREENIE in the form of ALL THE STARTS (1.05) but not at a nice price given best PSTATS of 37.93% to W on GRA but is backed up with 15/20 indicators as best so must be the best prospect here. EDITOR does like a bit of Hollywood Thunder (2.20) which have tried this distance before with some decent betting support in June 2019 and with his last 5 runs being 2nd surely has been consistent and is the best GREEN BAT in the field on his 2020224 run of 6.88 with also the best BAMS on all 4 categories a 31.03%chance to win on BAM42. Mystic Tulip (35.00) is maybe not a bad top 4 value proposition given the 3rd best GREEN (Distance category) BAT in the field and Maujean takes the ride only 1.20 lengths to find on best 1300 FVP BAT of All the Stars also only on his 5th run to date. Silver Fountain (5.00) has a stable change and 2nd TCurve and running further recently in KEN with ok SR form can be competitive
R2: We may be looking at a Smith double by now in the form of Hollywood Thunder/lady of Choice (0.80) last run was decent over 1600 FVP running 3rd and Byleveld again onboard for Smith (same as Hollywood Thunder) and likes to go to the front and try stay there. But PSTATS shows no value again for a 0.8 to have best PSTATS of 44.44% to WIn on BAM42 as the best probability in R2 he does have low GRA points so not close to a GREENIE. It could leave the door open for only runner from the Nel stable Salvadora (1.75) with Mxothwa again retaining the ride after a nice CD 2nd on 20200302 just 23 days ago and he does have 11 / 20 categories covered and shows more (I)ntent than Lady of choice with a compounded PSTATS probability of much more than Lady of Choice here given 11/20 categories covered vs 3 so Salvadora will be EDITOR 1st choice here even if Smith wins the 1st purely on a proven CD form that has also been good enough to beat Billy Ann the 3rd places horse on 20200117 by lots on BATS but something must have gone wrong on Billy Anne that day 113.06 BAT although no support that day to 50/1 so Cheyne will have a bit too much to do to win this imo. Winner should come from the 1st 2 mentioned, if not then anything goes...
R3: JACKPOT JEWEL (2.20) is probably one of the better PSTATS choices of the day given a 53.85% chance to WIN from 26 previous occurrences on 13 GRA points and backed up by 46.15% on SR%, 38.46% on ORA and 304.62% on BAT84 as well as leading 11/20 indicators. Also has bolt consistency BUT is not proven on the FVP track yet. His debut FRV run he was supported 3.30 into 1.15 and missend running 2nd so has another go here 28 days later. Ghalyoon (3.45) is top BAM168 with a 50% to WIN and backed up by a 38.46% to WIN on TCurve and 34.62% on BAMC/STAT form and 30.77% on BAM84 so these 2 could perhaps be enough to get us through the 1st leg of the P6 today on probability being high on both but they are not screaming ahead in the BAT form with some runners trying the distance again as well. Falling for you (2.20) has had decent support CD with 3 places and is turning FLAME HOT from his last 20191118 run after the rest and for a FLAME HOT trainer so must be given respect to return even better and is already competitive on his last 12.97 BAT run . Silver Stone improved from his 1st FVP run over 1000 with 11.89 BAT to a 9.48 BAT going further over 1300 FVP when backed in from 8 into 6.50 so on that logic he could prefer the even further 1600 FVP a bit more so could surprise. on that same basis Grey Ferraris and Mark the Doorman did NOT like going further on the BAT going backwards so EDITOR leaving them out of a win chance. Up Early in debuting for Kotzen a very decent trainer in FVP bit his last 1600 run was far worse than his 1200 on BAT so perhaps stable mate Jackpot Jewel is preferred here.
R5: Marmara Sea (2.80 )was going over a much shorter distance than previously in Gauteng when winning over 1000 on his FVP debut so we can only assume that the 200 extra today will suit and his 4.77 BAT42 was already the best in the field. He has a 43.75% to WIN % PSTAT on SR% and also holds 11/20 indicators so must be in with a chance here again but his SR was not "up to it" at 92.89 on FVP debut so hoping this is not a slow run race . Royal Fort and MArco van rensburg did well from a tough draw on last 1200 run with best AT, SR, MS (Median Speed / pace) and with also best BATC could be the challenger here with a 37.5% to WIN on SR and 31.25% to WIN on AT/MS. The Yvette Bremner stable showed a little bit better form last week and Ultra Boost with best ORA on 25% to WIn and ERA on 37.5% to WIN as well as (F)orm on 31.25% to win is not out of the running here He did get beat by Beneficiary last run 20200313 with Beneficiary also 2.75 better on BAT42 on that run but Beneficiary (10.00) seems better on his 1000 runs so on that could fade a bit last 200 . Microbe (5.50) does seems C/D suited winning 2/last3 1200 FVP runs and best SR% shared on 43.75% to win and a much better 13 lengths improvement on BAT41 in 11 days between last 2 runs means he cannot be left without a shout as well BUt the jockey booking Ndlovu does not show much I(ntent) given his previous try on Microbe was drifted from 8 to 16/1 bad run expected and got with only 10th a blemish given runs of 2,2,3,1,7,1 between those but cannot be left from exotics since owned and trained by Strydom . November Storms showed in his only C/D 1200 FVP run he displayed best EDMS - EXACT Distance Median Speed) and he only carries 1 kg more so must have a bit of a chance to succeed here as well . Queensbury Rules (33.00 )is only runner for Des J Mchlachlan and T Gould retains the ride with a remarkable 20 lengths improvements between his last 2 runs to win last run going away and T gould retains the ride but it seems the win was "out of turn" but not unexpected (backed from 40/1 into 33/1) so on that he may produce the "miracle" yet again so cannot be left from exotics . For Luck Sakes shown a form return improving 13 lengths last run with K Steyn riding and now gets Mxothwa booked and what seems a more suitable distance so must be given respect carrying low weight
R6: Travelling will soon be suspended but if you Travel in Style (9.00) there may be a bit of value here for you given a 66.67% PSTAT to WIN on ORA (Overall Ranking) in this FVP 1300 class C event. With also best AT and BATC both 22.2% to WIN his last run 9th is better that we think given a 4.03 BAT42 3rd best here behind 2 Greeff runners and carrying only 52 kg he seems to run better with lighter weight so value at 9/1 with a 6/9 PSTATS probability even if he runs last GOOD PSTAT support. Greef must be having the run of the race here with 5 runners from 10 so already Greeff has a 50% chance to win and there is 4 runners that seems suited for Greeff. Captains Princess (1.85) shows a 55.56% to win on SR% and 44.44% to WIN on GRA and also has best F,S,I,T,BAM42,BAM84 as well as best GREEN BAT42 a figure of 2.49 lengths after gauge improvement on debut FVP run over 1200 on 2020302 and Cheyne retains the ride. Rings and Things (9.00) has shown 3 wins in a row 201906 to 201908 over 120/1600/1400 and his 7.31 BAT over CD is not far off given a 2 draw today and a bad 10 draw last run overlooked/juglall riding. Captains Choice (12.00) has very decent BAT42 form and a very capable jockey to overcome the 9 draw and 2nd best by a small portion on BATC form so a roughy that cannot be overlooked given his consistent last 2 BAT figures over shorter and very decent EX CPT form . Seattle Tango (6.00) best ERA a 33% to WIN and best EDMS a 44.44% to WIN with solid 8.78 CD 1300 FVP BAT84 run is another to consider. Cause and effect (4.50) has best MS and best BAT42, BAt84, BAT168 and his last 1300 FVP run of 8.27 decent as well so another that could pop up for Greeff . Stream of Kindness (12.00) from a 1 draw showed a 1,2,1,2,1 earlier in his career and shows a preference for FVP as a CD winner here with best SR can pop up as well .
R7: TWIN FALLS (6.00) shows good PSTAT support 52.63% to WIN on SR and also has best AT, MS and BATC and best GREEN BAT42 form but his ?? is whether he can do the same on poly that he accomplished on his last 3 GRASS rusn since his poly form is not too great so EDITOR is not trusting PSTATS here 100% . Black Gardenia (6.00) last run over this CD produced a win from same jockey Ndlovu and unexpected for all except the jockey that has good form on him but he improved his BAT42 form so much over the 1300 FVP to a 2.96 2nd best in teh field on GREEN BAT42 form and has a shout. Miss Orange (4.50) with best TCurve a 26% to win as well as best FORM a 42.11 % to win and 9/20 leading indicators with a CD win in a 10.71 BAT figure must be a runner here as well Cheyne on Elusive Diva (4.50) could be his preferred ride and and his 6-1-3 last 6 rides (11.11/66.66% shows good consistent form for the combination . Linda Loves Lace last win was at 3/10 on his debut at FVP and almost seems a bit better over a little further judging on CT form so best on all BAMRALS is another contender in this field . Love Talk (10.00) shows consistency with 3,6,3,3,1,3,3 on his last 7 runs and a decent last 9.72 BAT from a bad 12 draw makes him a worthy roughy to include. Cloud nine is on 2nd run after rest and seems a bit better over 1200 than 1300.
R8: TOUGH FINISH. Samarra (12.00) has a "value" look to it given the best recent 1600 FVP for in the fieldon 2020201 as well as best ORA 36% to W best TCurve 43% to WIN and also best AT and F bit has a draw to overcome luckily a 1600 Ladysmith gets Pacifiers fitted and a43% to Win on (S) tat form and (I)ntent combined with a look of "crying for the 1600 and best ERA, MS with 35% to win and SR% with 35% to win must have a say . Forget'o Girls had a lovely FVP debut and a 2.51 BAT42 to boot far superior to the field and also shows good 1600 KEN form so is a runner but lost V Rensburg injured so not sure if we will get the consistency here. Deep river woman has consistent 1900 FVP form and a very good SR of 99.32 last run that suggests he has enough speed for teh drop in distance. Ginas Girl could be an improver with 2,2,3,1,11 form and then taking the rest his last run can be overlooked and last 2 runs over 1600 FVP was both 2nd's Tawny jet (6.00) has best EDMS a 28.57% chance to win and best BATC so another that could run well here. Cherry Pop (8.00) had a good win last run over 1300 FVP and the 1600 FVP looks decent enough to include but has a bad draw of 14. Flame of Fire (20.00) has decent enough BATS to be considered a decent roughy inclusion at 20/1 but again bat draw
EDITOR BIPOT: 8,1 x 2,1 x 3,2,1 x 2,8,10,7 x 5,6,4,3 x 9,2,3,5
EDITOR PA: 2,1 x 3,2,1 x 2,8,10,7 x 5,6,4 x 9,2,3,5 x 2,4,6,9 x 4,12,6,1
EDITOR P6: 3,2,1,5 x 2,8,10,7 (5,1,12) x 5,6,4,3,1,7,11 x 9,2,3,5,8,1,6 x 2,4,6,9,8,5 x 4,12,6,1,10,2
EDITOR JP1: 2,8,10,7 (5,1,12) x 5,6,4,3,1,7,11 x 9,2,3,5,8,1,6 x 2,4,6,9,8,5
EDITOR JP2: 5,6,4,3,1,7,11 x 9,2,3,5,8,1,6 x 2,4,6,9,8,5 x 4,12,6,1,10,2
EDITOR FVP FIBO: R1: Hollywood Thunder (2.2) x R2: Slavadora (1.75) x R3: JACKPOT JEWEL (2.20) x R4: Jurist (6.00) x R5:MARMARA SEA (2.80) x R6: Travel in Style (9.00) x R7: TWIN FALLS (6.00) x R8: Samarra (12.00)

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1 week 5 days ago #784006 by kristieN
P6 3/1-13/1-11/2/3/12

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1 week 5 days ago #784007 by Biggie626
Biggie626 on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
Race 4 (wins on all 3)

Maldives
Knight owl
Twice the poet

Race 5

Marmara sea (will win)

Race 6/7/8
T Gould and Alan greff (win/place treble)

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1 week 5 days ago #784010 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
The ride on All The Stars was the worse ride i`ve ever seen

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1 week 5 days ago #784011 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
Lion King in the next.... Just watched the movie

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1 week 5 days ago #784013 by kreezy
Vi va pi pa E/w

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1 week 5 days ago #784014 by Loopy Logic
Loopy Logic on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
anyone noticed the 3 runners R3 R5 R7 we typed in BOLD CAPS today... IPS still got the goods and we are 100 % FREE INDEFINATELY

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1 week 5 days ago #784015 by ElvisisKing
ElvisisKing on topic Fairview Poly Wednesday 25/3/20
R 8 jock Devoy to have a rare DOUBLE on the day ? any price.

Webber had a DOUBLE YESTERDAY :unsure: :unsure: :unsure:

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