A superb 10-race card from Sha Tin - live on Sky Sports Racing - this Sunday morning on what is known as FWD Champions Day. Three Group 1s will be run and here, Tim Carroll previews the card, nominating his best bets, plus a Placepot perm.
Set the alarm early this Sunday because we have a terrific meeting coming up which gets underway at 5.45am. Champions Day will see 10 hotly contested races from Sha Tin including three Group1s, races 5, 7 and 8, The Chairman’s Sprint (7.50am), The FWD Champions Mile (8.00am) and The FWD QEII Cup (8.40am), with full coverage live on Sky Sports Racing.
Although due to the current situation, the Internationals are unable to make it to Sha Tin for Champions Day this year, with the likes of boom sprinter Aethero, Hong Kong's best middle-distance horse Exultant, and the old champ Beauty Generation are all in action, it really is a meeting not to be missed.
My Next Best on the card is LAKESHORE EAGLE who runs in Race 4, The Class 3 River Dance Handicap (7.15am), over 1 mile.
The lightly raced 5yo from the Chris So yard has always shown a decent level of ability having won four of his 10 starts including last time out over course and distance.
On that occasion he charged home from mid-field and ran through the line strongly when only having his second start over the mile, a trip he’d been crying out for. Cheerful Leader (13) was back in third spot that day and meets the selection on better terms, but Lakeshore Eagle was much the stronger on the line, which is always a good sign.
The selection has a similar draw to last time and from gate 5 I’d suggest Karis Teetan will look to ride him in a similar manner and although higher in the handicap, I think the combination can once again prevail in a race that should set up nicely for them.
My best bet (NAP) on the card is AETHERO, who runs in the first of the Group 1s, The Chairman’s Sprint Prize (7.50am), over 6 furlongs.
The selection was disappointing when, not for the first time, he made a mess of the start and over raced when in behind other horses on his return from a layoff earlier in the month.
Basically we need Aethero to jump and be on the lead from the perfect gate in 5, and given that two of the speed horses, Voyage Warrior and Big Time Baby have drawn in 10 and 9 respectively, even if the selection is a tad slow from the stalls, which he quite often is, provided he doesn’t miss the break, he should be able to muster speed to grab a forward spot.
If you backed him last time, understandably you’d be reluctant to go in again, but he did a very similar thing at the start of the season when beaten by lessor types. However, in his following start he smashed up a strong 5f handicap field that included Voyage Warrior and then ran one of the most scintillating races we’ve ever seen over the 6 furlongs at Sha Tin when stopping the clock at 1:07:58 in The Jockey Club Sprint (Hot King Prawn 2l behind).
Since his last run he’s won a barrier trial, but more importantly he jumped well enough from the stalls, and I’m banking on Purton to be able to do the same on race day. Aethero has only ever been passed once in a race that he has led, and there were genuine excuses for that. If he leads here, I think we could see something a bit special.
My each-way (EW) play on the card is MONICA, who runs in the finale, Race 10, The Class 2 Bullish Luck Handicap (10.50am), over 1 mile.
Monica is a 6yo from the John Moore yard who goes into this grade for the first time, and that means he will go from the foot of the weights, and in a race with plenty of depth I thought it sensible to concentrate on something toward the bottom of the handicap.
The selection rarely runs poorly, which is highlighted by the fact he hasn’t been out of the top four spots in his last ten spins, which includes three victories.
The selection has drawn stall 1 here and although the speed maps have him in the second division, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sat a bit closer. He has a reputation as being a hold up horse that rattles home late, and that’s what he often did when they were campaigning him over 7 furlongs. But they recently stepped him up to a mile, with instant success; and he tends to be able to lay up midfield or slightly better, and I think from the low draw and with a lack of speed on paper, they will look to do likewise again, and from the foot of the handicap the selection should be right in the mix.
REMAINDER OF THE CARD
Race 1 on the card is The Class 4 Able One Handicap (5.45am), over 7 furlongs
CHARGE ON was hugely impressive when winning for the first time on just his fourth start last time out. That was his first try over 7 furlongs plus he sported blinkers for the first time and the combination worked the oracle.
When I say he was hugely impressive he actually only won by the barest of margins, but he circled the entire field from stone last off what was only a modest tempo, and it's worth noting that both the second and third were very much on the speed all the way.
He goes up 6lb in the handicap and once again he’s drawn wide, thus there will be some nervous moments for backers as he’s likely to be ridden the same way as last time. But he displayed a big turn of foot last time, one you normally associate with smart horses, and David Hall’s 3yo is open to further improvement.
Race 2 on the card is The Class 3 Fairy King Prawn Handicap (615am), over 6 furlongs
KaYing Legend was hugely impressive when winning his first local start last time out and should be respected despite an 11lb hike in the handicap. War Of Courage is a promising type who has won two of his five starts but goes around a bend and steps up to 6 furlongs for the first time.
RELENTLESS ME goes from toward the foot of the handicap plus connections have elected to engage 7lb claimer Alfred Chan. Douglas Whyte's 6yo won back to back races over 7 furlongs earlier in the season and although subsequently beaten at Happy Valley twice, he’s always been a better horse at Sha Tin.
He likes to press forward but with speed from several of these including the aforementioned, he may end up grabbing a tail behind one or two others, but I wouldn’t be concerned if he did lead as he’s a horse who tends to find plenty under pressure from the front.
No doubt a couple of these have a bit more potential and as the ratings would suggest, have a bit more ability, but this is a handicap, and from the bottom of the weights with a 7lb claim, Relentless Me looks right in this.
Race 3 on the card is The Class 4 Oriental Express Handicap (6.45am), over 6 furlongs
Joao Moreira has been booked for the John Size debutant Rhapsody who has looked a nice prospect in a few barrier trials and given the connections, any positive market moves could be significant. Good Luck Friend won on just his second start last time and definitely has a future, but he goes up 8lb here meaning he goes off top-weight.
VOYAGE STAR was a 45/1 winner last time out but won like an odds-on pop. On that occasion he went from the front and gave nothing else a chance, winning by nearly 3 lengths, seemingly with a bit left in the locker. He does go up 9lb in the handicap to a mark of 52, but he did win off a mark of 50 last season.
Like last time he’s drawn high in 13, but he shouldn’t have too many problems getting across and stall 13 has the joint third best winning strike rate (10%) over the 6 furlongs at Sha Tin this season.
Race 6 on the card is The Class 3 Vegeance Of Rain Handicap (8.25am), over 7 furlongs
WELLINGTON is the most likely winner on the day, the only reason we haven’t made him the NAP is I’d suggest he will come up at prohibitive odds, however we will use him as a banker in our Place Pot perm.
The selection is a superbly bred 3yo from the Richard Gibson yard who has won all three starts to date. He steps up to 7 furlongs for the first time but based on his fast finishing wins over 6 furlongs at his last two starts (plus his pedigree), he should be even more effective over this trip.
He goes up 10lb here, but for the first time he’s drawn a low gate and the likelihood of a more efficient race set-up will go some of the way to negating the hike in the handicap, although I doubt very much the extra impost would be enough to stop him at this level regardless.
Race 7 on the card is one of the features, The Group 1 FWD Champions Mile (9.00am)
This race throws up a conundrum in that BEAUTY GENERATION beat most of these last time out but Waikuku was off the bridle a long way from home that day and ran no sort of race having finished in front of Beauty Generation over this trip at their previous four meetings.
I think the sensible play is to stick with Beauty Generation as the race will probably set up very similar to what it did last time with Ka Ying Star leading and the selection eyeballing him on the outside.
Ka Ying Star ran with plenty of merit when runner up to Beauty Generation last time but meets him 5lb worse off, and barring a big turnaround from Waikuku, it's difficult to see any of the others beating a resurgent Beauty Generation.
Race 8 on the card is the third and final Group 1 of the day, The QEII (9.40am), over 10 furlongs
Along with Wellington, EXULTANT is the most likely winner on the card, but like Wellington he will be well into the red, thus I haven’t put him into the Nap or Next Best category.
The selection is a three-time Group 1 winner and is regarded as the best middle-distance horse in Hong Kong. Minus the International contenders this year, and with the Derby winner Golden Sixty being rested, despite being turned over last time, Exultant looks very much the one to be with in this.
Time Warp got the better of Exultant under a sectional timing master-class ride from Joao Moreira last time, and although there is no pace here and Time Warp is likely to get a soft lead again, Exultant is tactically versatile and I suspect Purton will make sure he’s a lot closer in the run, and the small field of seven will assist in that.
Playa Del Puente was responsible for a huge effort at a big price when runner-up in the Derby, and you would go a long way to see a better ride on a beaten horse. If they ‘walk the dog’ here, don’t be surprised if Blake Shinn tries something similar, no doubt the horse has the ability to sustain a long run, and might be a bit of value for forecast takers.
Race 9 on the card is The Class 2 Silent Witness Handicap (10.15am), over 6 furlongs
In a race where we have plenty of recent collateral form my selection is for the John Moore 3yo COMPUTER PATCH. Last time out he was runner-up to Shining Ace (6) with Transcendent (12) back in third spot. He got too far out of his ground that day, and the rider was hauled in for a ‘please explain’. To be fair to the rider, he was instructed to ride him with patience but admitted he may have overcooked the instructions.
This time, from stall 1 and with Joao Moreira taking over, I’d suggest we will see a far more positive ride, and that combined with an 8lb turn around with Shining Ace should be enough to turn the form.
The five-time French winner, Transcendent, meets the selection on the same terms but has a tricky draw in 14 to contend with. Sparkling Dragon (13), who is having his second spin at this level, is worth including in any exotics.
SUNDAY’S PLACE POT
This meeting’s Tote Place Pot will be races 5 through to 10. Usually we would stand out any NAP or Next Best selection, but I’m taking an insurance runner with the NAP this time.
I appreciate that would normally be a contradiction, so let me explain. At the time of writing Aethero is a 2/1 shot for the Sprint. If he jumps I think he’ll win, so I’m prepared to take the 2/1 that he will break cleanly, or at least cleanly enough to grab a front position. After all, he has won on all but two of his starts.
But if he doesn’t jump, chances are he will over race and puncture a long way from home. Plus we have a couple of warm favourites we can use as bankers who we haven’t thrown up as best bets, as they’ll both be well into the red.
All up, we will be playing 48 combinations (2x1x2x1x3x4), which will cost £4.80 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.
LEG 1 - 1 HOT KING PRAWN 11 AETHERO
LEG2 - 1 WELLINGTON
LEG 3 - 1 BEAUTY GENERATION 2 WAIKUKU
LEG 4 - 1 EXULTANT
LEG 5 - 4 COMPUTER PATCH 6 SHINNING ACE 13 SPARKLING DRAGON
LEG 6 – 6 BAND OF BROTHERS, 11 NOBLE STEED, 12, GENERALS DELIGHT, 13 MONICA
The UK Tote are offering a Placepot pool on all Hong Kong meetings; you can place your bet here.
TIM'S BEST BETS:
7.15am SHA TIN (Race 4)
LAKESHORE EAGLE (NB)
7.50am SHA TIN (Race 5)
AETHERO ; (NAP)
10.50am SHA TIN (Race 10)
MONICA (EW)
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