Cracker Jack

Magic, my problem is that if for whatever reason Cracker Jack's run was a fluke, how long will it take for his rating to drop?
Surely, we all will agree that it will be 7 or 8 runs.
If they raised him say 7 or 8 points and this is shown to be too low. How long will it take to increase his rating to his correct rating?
Surely 1 or 2 runs at the most.
As Frodo said, which is the lesser of the 2 evils?

>
> As for Mgede, I really did not think that a maiden
> win in KZN was strong enough form for her to give
> weight to older fillies/mares who, while not
> setting the world alight, have run some decent
> races in handicaps; I ignored the fact that the
> maiden win did come in season, so obviously the
> handicapper was right and I was wrong and that's
> how it goes - for the record I managed to survive
> all the other legs in the PA (lot of good that
> did me:( )


Frodo, remember in the old days when the joburg boys took down horses to KZN out of season and you could put and take as much as you wanted because the out of season stuff was so incredibly weak in KZN? I believe the wheel has turned ever so slightly. The fair in KZN not so weak anymore methinks and the joburg form has gone down the toilet, especially out of season.

Hope that things turn around as Jburg is still my favourite racing centre (after PE that is ) but things are looking decidedly bleak there now?

I think you have a point there, Tommy; and I have been made to pay lately for judging KZN form as 'weaker' than Joburg; it would seem that the difference between 'in season' form and 'out of season' form in Gauteng is greater than it used to be; I can certainly sympathise with the handicappers, as they need to make sure that a 78 in Gauteng is a 78 in KZN and is a 78 in the Cape (perhaps too much to ask that it should also be a 78 in PE and Kimberley?)

So how did your 'favourite racing centre' treat you today?

Frodo Wrote:

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> I think you have a point there, Tommy; and I have
> been made to pay lately for judging KZN form as
> 'weaker' than Joburg; it would seem that the
> difference between 'in season' form and 'out of
> season' form in Gauteng is greater than it used to
> be; I can certainly sympathise with the
> handicappers, as they need to make sure that a 78
> in Gauteng is a 78 in KZN and is a 78 in the Cape
> (perhaps too much to ask that it should also be a
> 78 in PE and Kimberley?)
>
> So how did your 'favourite racing centre' treat
> you today?


Frodo, apart from choosing winners on hollybucks, I haven't had a punt since the July and also before that for about 5 weeks......The missus and I are saving to buy a home in Las Vegas so thats taken priority above all else right now.
She still can't stop me from following the game though

Kabz Wrote:

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> Magic, my problem is that if for whatever reason
> Cracker Jack's run was a fluke, how long will it
> take for his rating to drop?
> Surely, we all will agree that it will be 7 or 8
> runs.
> If they raised him say 7 or 8 points and this is
> shown to be too low. How long will it take to
> increase his rating to his correct rating?
> Surely 1 or 2 runs at the most.
> As Frodo said, which is the lesser of the 2 evils?

If he gets slammed out of sight (without an obvious excuse) I reckon it will start to drop pretty quickly. As has already been noted, the handicappers are in a no-win situation with a horse like this. Like the rest of us, they can only wait and see whether it was a "fluke" (and there is no real reason to think that it was) or not.

Frodo Wrote:

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> Interesting discussion; I myself could not see
> Mgede run in the first 3 (and consequently went
> out of my PA) off her rating; just goes to show
> that the handicapper may also turn out to be
> correct (hopefully most of the time).
>

There's a few things to nore about this. Mgede probably is improving, if only because she has seemingly learned how to race properly. It has taken a while, but she now settles much better in her races and doesn't rocket off to the front like a scalded cat, and then either tire or chuck in the towel, like she used to. When she won that KZN maiden she ran on past horses, which is what happened again on Saturday.

Furthermore, that race on Saturday was very mediocre even by the (yes) low standards of Gauteng winter racing. This is especially so as the 1600m distance is probably 200m shy of what A Little Tibsy needs, and she appeared to be the "form" horse. It is also worth bearing in mind that maiden races are NOT always and automatically the weakest class of race.

The mere fact that none of the contestants has ever won a race does not per se have to mean it is a poorer race than a rock bottom handicap, where some multiple winners race off such low MRs that in theory they could never win a maiden plate if for some bizarre reason they were allowed to run in one. Although it is changing (very) slowly, and with the possible exception of 2yos, we in SA still seem to have the perception that a horse should be a winner before running against winners. There is actually no logical basis for this point of view, and in the UK we see maidens winning handicaps against winners (sometimes even 20 and more time winners) regularly. Indeed, many horses in the UK have the mandatory three runs in maidens to earn a mark (MR) and are promptly never or very rarely seen in maiden plates again.

After all, ask yourself this: aside from the obvious nonsesne like four legs, a head, and a tail, what do all the greatest horses in history from Secretariat to Sea The Stars to Horse Chestnut to Jet Master have in common? At some time or another they were eligible to run in a maiden race. None of them would ever have been able to compete in their respective country's equivalent of a MR 60-something handicap.

Well put, Magic.

and crackerjack shits in vindicating the handicapers opimion of his run in the derby

but he did get a 2.5 kg's allowance today; that being said, he really won impressively under a clever ride(tu)

He found plenty more when asked for an effort and won after racing without cover the whole way. If you take the apprentice allowance into account he ran pretty much to his MR, and there could be more to come as he is still a relatively young horse. There could be a decent staying race to be won with him at some point.

Nice to see the Woodie stable regaining there form(tu) ... some decent horses in the stable me think, all goes well for the feature race season

pirates Wrote:

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> and crackerjack shits in vindicating the
> handicapers opimion of his run in the derby


Cracker Jack is clearly on the up. ( top ride from appie). Looks a good sort IN THE MAKING.
You conveniently seem to forget that he got beat in the run following the Derby.

Lets see how the handicappers drop, what was the horses name........oh yes, the handicap certainty a couple of weeks ago, Dance With Mikey.