spreading the gospel

easy Wrote:

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> magiclips Wrote:
>

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>

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> > More than ten years of merit ratings and we
> still
> > had to listen to that.() Number of wins -
> > forever SA's barometer of a horse's ability. I
> > don't know what they would make of those horses
> > that run in English sellers that have won twice
> as
> > many races as Sea The Stars.
>
>
> lol, could not have illustrated merit ratings
> better myself. I too cannot believe that a
> "general" merit rating is given to horses
> inrespective of what they beat.....maidens in
> particular make me laugh.


what do you mean a general merit rating is given to horses irrespective of what they beat?

Captain thriller wins a maiden j @ kenilworth 1st time out on the 4/07/2010 gets rated 87
Rabadash wins a maiden j @ turfontein on his 6th start and gets rated 88

how can they both be rated so close together at that moment? this happens often

easy Wrote:

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> or another SA misconception
>
> " won by 10 lengths must be a superstar"
>
> is it possible that it beat a field rated 56 by 10
> lengths and is at best a 70 rated horse?

Yes!

Mind you, some of the restrictions to the way MRs are applied in SA are loony. We've had Royal Zulu Warrior, now next Monday at Flamingo we have Milvago. Won a maiden by 11 lengths when rated 68 last time out and now makes her handicap debut - rated 56! If the silly cow jumps (doesn't always happens) she might come home lonely again. And fool somebody into thinking that she's too good for Kimberley and Jooste was crazy to send her there etc. etc.

Won by 11 rated 68, now 56? She'll probably win even if she doesn't jump.

easy Wrote:

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> Captain thriller wins a maiden j @ kenilworth 1st
> time out on the 4/07/2010 gets rated 87
> Rabadash wins a maiden j @ turfontein on his 6th
> start and gets rated 88
>
> how can they both be rated so close together at
> that moment? this happens often

Whats your barometer in getting them rated further apart?

@ President

For me i would analyse the situation as follows:

Captain Thriller won on debut by 3.25 lengths and he beat 14 rivals. I would expect the handicapper to have been on course to watch the race and its merits. Beating 13 odd rivals one of which had already had 5 starts (and should/could have been the benchmark) (vintage royal) I would have rated Captain Thriller as "above average" and straight in at 94

The we have rabadash wins at the 6th attempt , once again there are plenty barometers before this win to be aboe to rate him true, once again i would have wanted to be there as the handicapper to see the race for myself. But Rabadash i would have set in at 76.

My prediction for these 2 horses is as follows

Rabadash will never soar above 90 and will end up a "decent " handicapper hovering round the 80s
Captain Thriller will end up rated lower 100's