Vaal Thursday

Frodo Wrote:

---

> Well my choice in the competition (Beach Flight)
> won at the good odds of 5/1; imagine my
> disappointment at the tote payout of R3.30 :S

tells you that it was heavily fancied to win

wonbyamile Wrote:

---

> Frodo Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Well my choice in the competition (Beach
> Flight)
> > won at the good odds of 5/1; imagine my
> > disappointment at the tote payout of R3.30 :S
>
> tells you that it was heavily fancied to win

All it tells me is that the tote sucks - but we know that - seriously though quite incredible that the tote payout was less than half of the starting price - we often see a 10 or 20% difference, but more than 100%?

Once again I say it.........

Look at the horses form that starts shorter. It is the horses who have consistent form in the books. For instance:

Beach flight had a record in the books as follows for the last 7 runs:
3,3,5,1,1,1,1
Never mind where he ran, the overseas players don't know (care) that Flamingo is infinitely weaker than any other center (just about)
All they see is the actual form. It may be because of their lack of knowledge or because of the lack of detailed form guides.

Do yourselves a favor and have a look at most of the horses who start short, even though they are not favorite. Also look at the horses where you can get value.
They are normally horses down in class with patchy handicap or group form whose record looks a little something like this:
4,11,8,6,10,4,5

This record does not speak to someone who doesn't know the group races or doesn't care quite frankly. They are less likely to put large amounts of money on this horse, even though for the SA punter in the know it may offer some very good value.

......Thus.....good payout on the tote, even for a 5 or 6 to 1 shot?!?!?!?!

Do the exercise and let me know if I'm right or not?

Tommy i think you will probably find its the guys in the totes that are latching on to horses like Beach Flight..

Guys from Auz and UK have far better places to be placing their bets (betfair)

There has to be a reason why the payouts are so lob sided and I promise you the reason is the form guides.

Not a shadow of a doubt in my mind!!!!!

Tommy_Hotspur Wrote:

---

> There has to be a reason why the payouts are so
> lob sided and I promise you the reason is the form
> guides.
>
> Not a shadow of a doubt in my mind!!!!!

I think you hit the nail on the button also vice versa with uk and other foreign meetings were the pools are substantial, the same scenario is applicable. The Saftote website had a preview of the Vaal meeting and Jack Milner made Beach Flight his best bet so any punter with internet facalities could have resulted in the poor dividend.