Fairview Friday

Frodo Wrote:

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> magiclips Wrote:
>

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>

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> > A 1/3 shot has a mathematical 25% chance of
> > losing. A 1/5 shot has a mathematical 16%
> chance
> > of losing. That's how odds work - my brain is
> too
> > sleepy to work out what the percentages are for
> a
> > 9/20 chance - but it shows a complete lack of
> > understanding about how odds work to say that a
> > very short priced horse should never lose.
> >
> > True odds represent the probabibiluty of a
> certain
> > event occurring. First of all, because of the
> > unknown variables there can never be absolute
> odds
> > in racing unlike say in a standard deck of
> cards,
> > where to use a simple example the chances of
> any
> > given card being a spade are exactly 3/1
> (assuming
> > the Jokers have been removed). That said, a
> horse
> > which is priced up at 9/20 has nine chances in
> 29
> > of losing according to basic arithmetic - and
> that
> > is using the simple laws olf probabibility,
> > without factoring any possible skulduggery into
> > the equation. Whether or not 9/20 is too short
> a
> > price or a fair price is up to you to decide,
> > because as I said there is room for opinion
> here
> > unlike in my very basic card deck example.
>
>
> Would be interesting to know what the percentage
> is of 1/3 shots losing - my gut tells me they get
> beat far less than 25% (1 in 4 times) - so if my
> 'gut feel' is correct, in theory you should come
> out ahead if you only bet on those 'certainties'.


Not a chance Frodo ..... and that is only my opinion. For every loss you take you must get 3.166 winners to get your money back.... very tough task that. A smarter way to play would be to take the 1/3 a fixed place on 16/10 (approx.) favourites.....

rolands song Wrote:

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> Tic Tack Toe's run in the Algoa cup should make
> him ahuge runner today.

I agree completely, but biggest danger imo must be Makzoos.

If you spin a coin and heads comes up 4 times in a row ... what is the odds it will come up on the next spin?? And the answer is................................. 50/50 ...same as every other spin.... it is surprising how many people do not grasp that simple little fact. So when the first 3 favourites get beat .... they reckon the 4th MUST win cos the first 3 got beat. Drives me crazy when I hear comments like that.

Can't wait for the Sham's to post!

Hidalgo Wrote:

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> rolands song Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Tic Tack Toe's run in the Algoa cup should make
> > him ahuge runner today.
>
> I agree completely, but biggest danger imo must be
> Makzoos.

Makzoos and Tik Tac Toe much better at Arlington, and don't read too much into that Algoa form. 3 lengths covered the first 10 past the post, and todays race is 400m's shorter.

@Magi

Winning form states that Makzoos won 4 out of his 7 lifetime wins over the 1600m, don't think the trip should be a problem....I hope not.

definately

@Hidalgo... yup, Makzoos BETTER over this trip.... what I was referring to was assess the runners form on merit... and not based purely on the Algoa Cup form. I personally think that if Social Master races a bit handier than last time out.... this is race over. And if it is 4/1 or longer..I am in boots and all.

@ Magi
Thanks for the tip, I''ll take the swingers then! (tu)

CAMDEN BOROUGH..... should see out this trip & be a massive runner

We have Gilmore Girl today the 20/1 must reflect her chances. Gavin says that she is exceptionally well and hoping for a good run from her. He told us that he had a bit of a virus around the yard in her last start and noe of his horses perfomed over this period. I believe the 1800 is too short and on the 1800 form has lenghts to find on many horses. I will back he for a small each way and hopefully she can fill the back end of quartets. Sammy Jo must be the best from the yard but hopefully we get Smithed here.

Have a great days racing. (tu)

Anyone fancy the chances of Isigonis in the first? Backed last time out, tends to run out of steam over the last bit, shorter distance today and Fourie up?