Variety Club 118

pirates Wrote:

---

> why dont you take his weight for age allowance off
> and then come up with his net rating and then
> compare him to the older brigade off their net
> ratings before you have a go at the handicapers


correct pirates..the WFA over 1600m in december is 12 pounds..so essentially variety club is a net 106..and thats the rating he will be weighted off in a handicap..not the 118...next month its 10 ponds(net 108 etc etc )-D

I made him a 116 or 117. But he has no business running in a handicap any time soon so why on earth should he "never be the same again?"

magiclips Wrote:

---

> I made him a 116 or 117. But he has no business
> running in a handicap any time soon so why on
> earth should he "never be the same again?"

ML, what did you make Silver Haven and Blaze Of Fire?

Justin V i believe around 110.

zoro Wrote:

---

> Justin V i believe around 110.


so he would be net 98 over a mile ....

Magic is 1,000,000 percent correct.

Pirates, you make a lot of sense.

Jack Dash Wrote:

---

> magiclips Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > I made him a 116 or 117. But he has no business
> > running in a handicap any time soon so why on
> > earth should he "never be the same again?"
>
> ML, what did you make Silver Haven and Blaze Of
> Fire?

I can't say for sure and I've thrown last weekend's books away and I don't have the info at my fingertips, but to give Variety Club a net rating of 98 looks way too low in my book. However, based on a quick scan at the run-ons for the Guineas I reckon Silver Haven may be around 103 and Blaze Of Fire (who ran useful Soweto Slew to a short head in his previous race) about 99 or 100.

The fact that Variety Club beats many of the same horses by wider margins every time they meet confirms his improvement, and the way he drubbed the Dingaans winner must via collateral form make him comfortably the best 3yo in SA at the moment. It's possible that the Dingaans form has been slightly over valued by the handicapper, but only by a pound or two at most.

As pointed out, the four horses with the best exposed form occupied the first four places in the Guineas and the field finished quite well spread out. I still have the sneaky suspicion that the race was run to suit Variety Club better than the likes of Silver Flyer or Gimmethegreenlight, but he won emphatically and to leave him at the same 110 rating that he was before the Guineas doesn't look at all right to me.

Roll on the Queen's Plate - then we shall see!

zoro Wrote:

---

> Justin V i believe around 110.


zoro how on earth can the horse be a 110? that makes no sense at all...he beat silver flyer by 3.25 lengths..he is a 110! how can they be rated equally

To make Variety Club 110 you have to think that either Silver Flyer ran well below his best or his post-Dingaans rating is much too high. I don't see much evidence for either scenario, personally.

In order to give Variety Club MR118, the hadicapper would have had to use Princess Victoria as the line horse (105), and then Silver Flyer gets 112, and Gimmethegreenlight 107. That looks fine, until you look at the effect on the horses that were well beaten. My opinion is that, although Variety Club gave a good field a solid thrashing, and is thus clearly currently the best 3yo, the slow pace of this race makes for suspect handicapping. I cannot believe that Gimmethegreenlight ran any where near his best dropped out from a bad draw, and out of his ground in a race which developed into something of a sprint, nor that Silver Flyer improved on his Dingaans form when also running on from too far back in a race where the pace did not suit him. Similarly, Princess Victoria appeared to run below her 1400m form, as in the Fillies Guineas. In my view, they ran VC 113; SF 107; PV 99; GTGL 101.
I hope that Variety Club does run in the Queens Plate, although he has unfortunately cracked a poor draw, since that race should settle the issue one way or the other.

Has Variety Club been "indefinitely suspended" intractable as reported on another site ?

soodum Wrote:

---

> Has Variety Club been "indefinitely suspended"
> intractable as reported on another site ?

His starting stall certificate has been withdrawn until he is proven tractable. I think that means he has to pass a starting stall "test" before it will be reinstated. It is a common enough occurrence, but there was a moment before the Guineas when I did wonder whether he would agree to load.

Stipes' reports for SA meetings are available on the NHA website.