Live Feed Cape Sales

hibs post the article on the s.post website regarding the sale,,,it seems we have very differing opinions on the success or failure of the sale

Sportingpost.co.za


If the 2012 Cape Sale Book Two is regarded as the equivalent of last year’s regional Cape Sale and Equimark Sale combined, then things are very much looking up.

Book Two weighed in with 294 yearlings ‘sold’, at an average price of R83.000. This compares to 267 yearlings sold at the combined Cape & Equimark sale of 2011, at an average of R50.000.

The median prices are even more dramatic in comparison. From a median price of R35k for both sexes in 2011, the Book Two sale got up to R60k overall, with colts on R75k and fillies R55k.

Last year five yearlings broke the R200k barrier, this year Book Two has no less than twenty-two.

Last year 113 yearlings were led out of the ring unsold, this year there were 75.

The overwhelming conclusion must be that in comparison with 2011, the Book Two sale was success.

Highest price at the sale was R400k, achieved twice, for a Silvano colt and a Trippi filly – not unexpectedly, since both sires are riding crest of the wave. The Trippi filly will be trained by Joey Ramsden, and was consigned by Arc-en-Ciel. The youngster is the third foal of her American-bred dam, who had been acquired by Arc-en-Ciel in 2008, for R60k, in foal to Dynasty. Daytona Stud, no stranger to top prices at Cape sales, consigned the Silvano colt. He’s a full brother in blood to Equus Champion Bold Silvano (their dams are full sisters) and will race in the Jooste colours.

Magic Lips and Shrek i agree with your above comments,horses sold for R200,000 or more will never recoup their selling prices with our poor stakes.Maybe thats a major factor why lots of people are leaving this industry.

Agree 100% with Magic, Shrek and Zoro...breeders are going to start finding things very tough here..better start racing the horses themselves!

hibernia Wrote:

---

> Sportingpost.co.za
>
>
> If the 2012 Cape Sale Book Two is regarded as the
> equivalent of last year’s regional Cape Sale and
> Equimark Sale combined, then things are very much
> looking up.
>
> Book Two weighed in with 294 yearlings ‘sold’,
> at an average price of R83.000. This compares to
> 267 yearlings sold at the combined Cape & Equimark
> sale of 2011, at an average of R50.000.
>
> The median prices are even more dramatic in
> comparison. From a median price of R35k for both
> sexes in 2011, the Book Two sale got up to R60k
> overall, with colts on R75k and fillies R55k.
>
> Last year five yearlings broke the R200k barrier,
> this year Book Two has no less than twenty-two.
>
> Last year 113 yearlings were led out of the ring
> unsold, this year there were 75.
>
> The overwhelming conclusion must be that in
> comparison with 2011, the Book Two sale was
> success.
>
> Highest price at the sale was R400k, achieved
> twice, for a Silvano colt and a Trippi filly –
> not unexpectedly, since both sires are riding
> crest of the wave. The Trippi filly will be
> trained by Joey Ramsden, and was consigned by
> Arc-en-Ciel. The youngster is the third foal of
> her American-bred dam, who had been acquired by
> Arc-en-Ciel in 2008, for R60k, in foal to Dynasty.
> Daytona Stud, no stranger to top prices at Cape
> sales, consigned the Silvano colt. He’s a full
> brother in blood to Equus Champion Bold Silvano
> (their dams are full sisters) and will race in the
> Jooste colours.

Surely one cannot compare the book 2 sale to Equimark's last sale, CTC ploughed far more advertising and brand recognition into this sale than what Equimark did for all its sales combined. Equimark was on it's last breath with Linole Cohen already out of he picture yet CTC have chosen to compare themselves with Equimark and also no mention of TBA scrapping their Cape sale allowing CTC to have a free hand in the Cape THIS YEAR, which also gave CTC their bigger numbers.

Lets cut through the spin and compare CTC book 1 and 2 results on some selected indicator sires-

Book 1 Average Book 2 Average

Silvano R706K R192K

Dynasty R402K R142K

Captain Al R320K R 77K

Black Minnalouche R231K R 81K

Var R320K R 85K

Windrush R156K R 60K

Judpot R300K R 40K

Rebel King R200K R 98K

I know we are comparing apples with pears as book 1 was a sort of select sale (green pages) but surely for CTC to try and compare
book 2 to last year's Equimark is taking a liberty and are hiding behind skewered statistics.

Statistics and damned statistics.

You can use them to support whatever argument you like. So let's stick to concepts :

There were quite a number of withdrawals as well as not solds. Where do they go? Who pays? Where will they be sold?

I counted 50+ that sold for R20K. How do you breed a horse for that kind of money?

Why do breeders bother to breed using moderate stallions and failed mares? What are they thinking?

Fact - if you pay R150K plus for a service to a leading stallion your BREAKEVEN point is going to be about R250K. Using both Book1 or Book2 you can see the problem.

There is talk of the demise of the middle market yet the sales companies pander only to the top end.

Wearing my professional hat I can tell you that the reasons for the decline in interest and support is primarily economic : Stakes are too low ( as stated elsewhere ) and many middle market buyers are now in SUCH FINANCIAL DISTRESS that horse ownership is totally off their radar.

Smaller buyers regard the sales as rigged and corrupt. In line with widely held opinions as to the remainder of the sport.

So you actually buy a horse. It doesn't matter how much it costs but nobody has been able to explain to me recently how spending approximately R100,000 a year to keep a non-performing animal with an uncommunicative trainer equates to fun.

Garrick, I always enjoy your posts and especially when you accurately point out that the path we are on is labelled "toilet". I want to defend but I find I cannot.

I too have given up on sales stats as having no meaning, I don't read any of them.

Breeders are just optimists. It's easy in the clear light of day to ask just what were they thinking, but because things have a weird way of turning out breeders find that many of their commercial decisions are leaps of faith. Who knew after decades of locally bred stallions struggling that Capt Al and Jet Master would be followed by Victory Moon and Dynasty? Very often with young mares you have no idea that the page is about to explode with black type, or just collapse into nothing. It is very easy to ask what we're they thinking unless you have a snapshot of the terrain at that point when decisions were made.

IMO, and I have had very good exposure with owners as a group, and with breeders, and I agree with you it ALL boils down to economic distress. Anybody can fluke being a wealthy genius when times are good, and anything can fail when you customers run out of disposable cash. Anyone can catch fish when they are running, no one can when they are gone.

These sales companies are not pandering to anyone. At the time of putting the sale together they look at what is nominated and try to fill the lots with product that will sell for the most money. Each sale does that, if there is more lots than boxes then all the Jet Masters get on and you weed out the cripples that won't sell.

But Garrick, answer this:
Owning a horse is often a lousy experience. Long periods of silence is how you know you have a piece of shit. You adrenalin fix is how much expense has overtaken any hope of income. A good horse is identified easily by the fact that there are NO races for it, as there are whole meetings it is OVER qualified for while the program has added special catergories and whole weeks! of racing for Crap (low hcps) and Utter Kak (qualified maiden hcps).
So: how come every box in racing is full, there are queues waiting to get in everywhere from 2 yo's to Gr1 horses trying to go for the Winter Season. It's almost impossible to sell a horse because there is no buyer, BUT why does it matter if there's nowhere to go and the queue to get to a trainer is longer than PnP before Xmas?

The heart and anticipation of that next "win" overrules the brain in racing.

Jack - You make excellent points.

Horse ownership IS a mystery.

But I believe something significant has changed in recent years - My historical experience and perspective only stretches back to the early 1970's so I am not sure whether what South Africa is experiencing now has occurrred in the past :

It appears to me that the industry is now financially dominated by about half a dozen 'personalities'. I battle to find another description as their influence spreads over a multitude of arenas from ownership to breeding to directorship of the operating company.

Now here's my concern ; It's a commonly held perception that this game tames tigers. To fully understand this statement you perhaps also need to add another old favourite : Money cannot buy you a good horse. This suggests that there is almost no scientific method available to ensure success. You have to have a massive chunk of good fortune or luck.

Historically almost all of the big players outside of royalty eventually stick themselves out. It usually follows a well trodden path; They fluke a couple of good horses and temporarily 'own' the game. The freeloaders ( multiple trainers, bloodstock agents, racing managers, bone throwers etc., ) then attach themselves to the gravy train. The next move is to dramatically increase the numbers of horses they own on the premise that you increase your chances of finding the 'next big one'. Usually this is accompanied by a few offshore sorties as well. Resulting in extortionately expensive imported horses being introduced into the equation.

Lastly there is the possibility of stallion purchases and a stud farm. What started off as a recreational pursuit quickly explodes into a fulltime business threatening to career out of control at any moment. Accompanied inevitably by swathes of underperforming horses. So although the industry holds out the prospect of a Horse Chestnut to all of us the reality is somewhat different : If we succeeded in breeding 20 Horse Chestnuts in one season we will still end up partially disappointed as only one will ever carry the mantle of Best Of Generation.

The above scenario fits a small number of people currently active as well as household names from the past whom the industry processed and spat out.

My question, therefore, is this :

These individuals are characterised by being wealthy. They do not usually tolerate making sustained losses for very long. Without having access to ANY information I can guarantee that all of them are currently sustaining losses.

Given that this power is now concentrated into such a small number what happens when one of them pulls the plug or has it pulled on them?

Garrick said, "Given that this power is now concentrated into such a small number what happens when one of them pulls the plug or has it pulled on them?"

Garrick, I guess your answer to my question is that it's a mystery. LOL. Yip.

My answer re: the supertanker owners:

Look, as far as I can remember there have always been tigers. Not always tamed though. I can into the scene after the Bullbrand magnate C Herwitz (?), so I got to see the tail end of the Northfields era.

I watched the pink colours of Podlas, who at one point was officially the owner of the largest string in the world, or so it was reported. It co-incided with the emergence of W Mawing and Million Rand races. Beck had already bailed out some breeders and had accumulated farms. Norman Tilley took racing to the stock exchange. He paid me once with some share certificates. Can't tell you where they are. National Turf Investments, I think. There must be more but the next I remember is Plattner moving in with big Australian purchases, and private training centre, a stud farm and a Met winner in short order. Fieldspring came in like a pro, then Irwin, and then the grand-daddy of them all, M Jooste.

I think Jooste is the most powerful and effective operator of them all, because he's grown from owner, director, importer, breeder, stallion station to auction house. I have to laugh when he gets criticized for doing what any of us would be doing if we could. I think Plattner is here to stay. Beck was very generous in the way he played, the industry owes him as we do the Oppenheimers for lifelong support. There are loads of others like the Jaffees.

I don't think it matters how or when they come or go, to the game as a whole. It's not just here in SA, Sheiks, Aga's and Tycoons always flit in and out. Someone will always get burned if they are too close, but they probably had their hands out for a while anyway. I wouldn't worry.

This sport is sound and well and will survive with or without us all! Yes there will always be room for improvement, but the Sport of Kings is just that! No place for softies - if you do not fit in then get out. Unfortunately the days of a small owner is numbered - horseracing did not invent this but the economics of our time did. The same as small battling businesses. I do not believe to sit on the fence and look for faults and throw stones. The thrill of a win is out of this world and for the next couple of days all is forgotten - if you have felt that thrill you will know. I have also had the thrill to win a couple of graded races and that makes one come back for more - call me stupid but one is always looking for that next BIG one!

Sale prices has nothing to do with stakes - something so many people like to link. If you think that the R500k horse can give you some excitement go buy it! After all money CAN buy you happiness - if you can affort that. This is the Sport of Kings!

Sept. 1929
"There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue." Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury