VAAL THURSDAY 20/09/2012

Lots of 'if's and but's' today - many of the favorites absolutely no value imo.

R1: Passionate Kiss the obvious one - but I think Ruffle can't be ignored IF she takes to the sand - and she should, being by Fort Wood,
R2: Tricky start to the PA; No value in Safe House - really a toss up on whether he would take to the sand; Our Folly had a decent first try on the sand, but is drawn wide, Matchless Flag very moderate but has placed in 2 out of 3 tries over this trip. Opening Salvo tries the sand from the plum no 1 draw - lots of possibilities
R3: Presidio and Cuff Links the obvious two, IF they take to the sand, Maybe Baby has placed on 6 out of 8 tries on the sand, but is drawn wide and not much between him and Hobb's Flight on their runs behind Tobe's Jet - Wing and a Prayer and Zeerust both try the sand and could upset
R4: I think Bridgewater has improved with the blinkers and despite a wide draw, looks very good value to me over the 1800 - especially as his main dangers Sebastian Bolt (no value) and Master of Hounds are also drawn wide - for a roughie I like Badger's Quest - most Spectrums enjoy the sand and he has a good draw with Gavin up.
R5: Very competitive handicap - Silver Specialist has a big weight, but should be thereabouts, Rivulet won really cosily on her sand debut and can follow up - lots of others that can suprise here, including Delloto (last sand effort over 1200 can probably be ignored and his MR has come down from 90+ to 74 - and he gets a 4 kg appy allowance today); Perpetual Song tries the sand, so improvement possible; not much between Kudos, The Western and Ushkadel on their last meeting; Heyouneverknow found betting support, but has poor form on the sand
R6: Eugenes was slightly disappointing imo last time behind Mr Tobin, but did run somewhere in the region of his current rating, so back in a handicap, he should be right there - Ginepri very interesting runner, has been rested for more than 400 days, but could surprise if ready and if he takes to the sand; Ryan's a Lion is in top form and likes this trip, while Albert Dock also tries the sand for the first time - not easy
R7: Cannon comes with a big reputation, should go close IF he takes to the sand, but takes on (and has to give weight to) some hard-knocking sand campaigners like Al Felon, Berrymiller and The Fixer - Cotton Eye Joe was very disappointing last week imo, so for a roughie I like a bit of Chedwin Park, who has come down from a 78 in his last sand effort to a 61 today.
R8: Finally an easier race; looks a 2 horse race between Cherry on the Cake (also in on Saturday?) and Waltzing Duel.

Could prove a wise move to follow two methods today - take all the 'hot shots' in a perm multiple times (just in case they all rock up) and a percentage perm in case one or all of them get beat.

Enjoy (tu)

@Englander, Richies Rags and Idiots Patent do not have 1 horse the same hahahahah

We a bit closer on the sensible pick

Card looks nice.. CARRYOVER coming 4 the BIG day?

Race 1 # 4,8
Race 2 # 7,12
Race 3 # 1,13
Race 4 # 2,14
Race 5 # 4,11,14
Race 6 # 1,5,8
Race 7 #1
Race 8 # 1,2,6

SirPuntalot Wrote:

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> Rowdy how can you have canon please explain
> ??????
>
> Beat the blind school last time out .
> could be proven wrong but hey 9/10 not for me .


He did beat absolutely nothing when winning his maiden but ironically a repeat of his defeat in his first start will make him hard to beat here..

Just think how many 3y olds get beat carrying top weight in MR Handicaps

JTL Wrote:

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> Just think how many 3y olds get beat carrying top
> weight in MR Handicaps


JTL it does seem like an odd choice at first glance to run Cannon on the sand in a MR Handicap but one has to factor in the MDK side of things and the fact that he has chosen to send him to Jhb from durban to contest on the sand has to suggest that he is showing very good work on the surface..
another interesting point today is that the Steel Shoe master Tyrone Zackey has declared Badgers Quest to run in Ali's today not even Smanje Manje had them on in the July..:S

Richie77 Wrote:

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> @Englander, Richies Rags and Idiots Patent do not
> have 1 horse the same hahahahah
>
> We a bit closer on the sensible pick

Not strictly true Richie... I will also be nibbling at the 2 in the first and the 6th in the 4th both of which must come under the realms of idiot or rags and I see you have listed. In the 4th I'll be doing 1, 6 and 12 for the retirement fund!

Frodo... excellent and wise jottings bud (tu)

Here's my picks for the day

Race 1 : Passionate kiss
Race 2 : Opening salvo
Race3: Presido
Race4: Sebastion/Master of hounds
Race5: Fort lodge***
Race6: Lochlorien/Ryan'S A Lion/Eugenes
Race7:Cannon/Al felon
Race8:Waleys camp/Cherry on cake

i guys,

my double for today

Passionate kiss / silver 10 / 1 R 5 hoping for a big run from silver.

regular jock on top again.............. hope it's not a tad tooo far.

good racing.

PASSIONATE KISS win into rivulet to place

Hazlewood ew...sire loves the sand

wow , ouch