Turffontein saturday - Fixed place value bets

I think there are a few value fixed place bets on saturday:-

Race 1 - First Winter
Race 3 - Pacific dynasty
Race 4 - Jackodore
Race 6 - American storm
Race 7 - Shogunnar
Race 11 - Cyclone Michelle

Is this going to be the "official" thread for Saturday, instead of having two or more threads running simultaneously?

ya lets make it this one - Hangman overs

just spent 6 hours studying this card, and in my opinion, it looks like the betting is all wrong to me, and MAJOR money to be made(tu)

Bushy Wrote:

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> just spent 6 hours studying this card, and in my
> opinion, it looks like the betting is all wrong to
> me, and MAJOR money to be made(tu)

I'm going to disagree with you regards the betting being all wrong, if anything, it's a good indication of how open/competative most races are. If the betting was any shorter, then i think the bookies would be taking the public for a ride. If you feel a horse is a bigger price than you make it, then that's the one to have a punt on, because if the betting public see the same thing as you did, it will start a lot shorter.

Bushy Wrote:

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> just spent 6 hours studying this card, and in my
> opinion, it looks like the betting is all wrong to
> me, and MAJOR money to be made(tu)


I agree, some 'false favortites' imo - and I have only looked at the card for 10 minutes to see that -

Link Man place
Vettel place

Inn On The Square (PL)
Link Man (PL)
Emerald Approach (PL)
Smanjemanje (PL)

I am very careful with 1st timers but heard a whisper about Zapateo in the 2nd Race.

Mary's Pride at 17/10 a place in the 3rd seems good value, although has not beaten much if their is a bit of rain tonight will be a big runner come tomorrow.

Strydom on Soweto Slew in the 4th a good booking carrying 55.5kg. Value at 12/1

Race 5 - NEGEV , Race over.

Race 7 - Will take the Smanjemanje + Brooks Club swinger.

I also like Mary's Pride each way, and your swinger in the 7th - but Negev not for me

IF it rains and the going changes to yielding then I have one lined up for inclusion in the exotics...

Frodo Wrote:

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> I also like Mary's Pride each way, and your
> swinger in the 7th - but Negev not for me

I am looking for reasons why Negev cant win, your reason will be appreciated.