Vaal Thursday

Selections below are value bet horses in each race where i feel the price is wrong:

R1: Cool Tempest 30/1= In such a weak field, anything can win it, but rather go for horses that are tried and tested on the sand. Very decent work-rider on board, cracking 1 draw where over 1200m, if you not in the top 6 draws you shouldnt even be hopeful of running into the money (atleast how the past couple months have been). Ignore last run to TapTap, was a distance far too long. Go back to the Shadow Mode run, a repeat should be good enough for this field. That run to Invierno was not a true reflection, because the horse won by 13L that day and nothing was running on along with CT been drawn 12 that day would not have helped either.

R2: Club Captain 11/2= Like others have mentioned here, on that run to Solarium there is 1.1L beating of Kinematic Countess with CC being a further 1.5kgs better off, if the appie goes to the front, with 50kgs on the back, will be hard to peg back being 10kgs lighter than the top rating. Even as a top 2 place bet looks very enticing.

R3: Critical Mind 8/1= A lot of us got burnt on this horse last time out. Gavin was confident of a very good run, the form was solid, Gavin found all sorts of problems in the race, and was reported with a respiratory noise. Nice draw again, Gavin retains the ride, and represents nice value around that price.

R4: For Your Eyes Only 30/1= On that run to Pirate's Bounty, if one uses a line through Laid Back, there is 5L to LB, where as horses such as Favourite Daughter ran 3L behind but priced up at 5/1. 3 winners have come out of that formline thus far, and Juglall retains the ride so should be able to bridge the gap a little closer.

R5: Hang Fire 6/1= On the run to Polar Moon there is nothing in it to Romeo's Reward, but RR priced up at 33/10. Solid place bet around 12/10 looks alot nicer than backing Solarium on the nose for example.

R7: Deigo 8/1= Last time out the 1200m was far too short but was doing best work late in that event, and was supported in the betting. Now the 1450m comes again where last time out running 3.75L to New York was a very good run imo, especially the fact it had to overcome a 12 draw, now drawn 2, i'd say thats an extra 2.5L already, so effectively finishing ontop of NY, and what price would NY be in this race? Nice place bet atleast.

R8: Vivid 14/1= Draw a line through its last run drawn 14/15, this could have very easily unsettled the horse with kickback. The 3 previous runs on the sand to Cherry On The Cake, Aljawhara, Waley's Camp, represent that the horse has ability and from a moderate draw now, of David can get some speed out the gate with some cover, i dont see why Vivid cannot be involved in the finish at 14/1.

Hope this helps

Thanks Frodo.... nice summation. No place in the last for my Patent horse Tomorrow's Miss :S ...

The Madji Wrote:

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> Thanks Frodo.... nice summation. No place in the
> last for my Patent horse Tomorrow's Miss :S ...


I think being by Cataloochee the distance could be a problem - but definite chance if she sees it out

Bushy, I forget to mention it, but I have Cool Tempest down as a small idiot bet in R1... managed a little at 20s but I can only see 16s, where you seeing 30s??

Shot Bushy...some good food for thought there (tu) .... I agree with vivid being decent value for an eachway... maximum swingers with Waltzing Duel and Tomorrow's Miss.

Englander Wrote:

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> Bushy, I forget to mention it, but I have Cool
> Tempest down as a small idiot bet in R1... managed
> a little at 20s but I can only see 16s, where you
> seeing 30s??

when i started my summary i saw 25s with 30s being offered on Interbet...now gone to 16s, and im still not on

Likeable longshots -
Cool Tempest, Flo Jo, African Blaze, Furious Dancer and Vivid

The Happy Horseplayer Wrote:

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> Likeable longshots -
> Cool Tempest, Flo Jo, African Blaze, Furious
> Dancer and Vivid


African Blaze :S (pages through the Computaform trying to find in which race it's runnning

Frodo Wrote:

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> The Happy Horseplayer Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Likeable longshots -
> > Cool Tempest, Flo Jo, African Blaze, Furious
> > Dancer and Vivid
>
>
> African Blaze :S (pages through the Computaform
> trying to find in which race it's runnning

4th race no 6

PA:
1,2
1,3,4,6
1,3,4,16
2,5
2
2,5,6
1,5

onlikeascon Wrote:

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> Frodo Wrote:
>

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>

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> > The Happy Horseplayer Wrote:
> >
>

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>
> >

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> > > Likeable longshots -
> > > Cool Tempest, Flo Jo, African Blaze, Furious
> > > Dancer and Vivid
> >
> >
> > African Blaze :S (pages through the Computaform
> > trying to find in which race it's runnning
>
> 4th race no 6


Yip, found it - ran just behind Favourite Daughter over the trip in October - must have chance on that (tu)

R2 2 LA VOLTA
R3 1 INN ON THE SQUARE
R4 4 FAVOURITE DAUGHTER , 16 WATER MUSIC , 3 STAR EMPRESS , 12 BERRYFIELDS
R5 2 FURIOUS DANCER
R6 2 UNCLE TOMMY
R7 3 DIEGO
R8 1 TAWAKUL