Kenilworth Saturday

shreks fancies from another thread

Re: Met Day Fancies (not official thread for Saturday okay)


Some tough competitive racing as always on these "big" days. I am going to be out tomorrow morning so though i would share my fancies early.

The exotics are either going to Pay a bomb if we can beat the favorites but if the likes of Barbosa, Bold Var and Captainofmysoul I will battle to recover my investment. I am hoping for a few bombs to drop.

Race 3; Barbosa has the come on look about him and is drawn on the right side of the track it is him to win or load up. I like Cypress Point as my upset horse if he can not lose too much ground at the start, ran a good race last time out considering he never had any luck.

Race 4: Juvenile races I avoid like the plague, I have gone for the field in my Pick 6 bar the Burger coupling and going with all of 2,9,12,14 in my PA and still not convinced I will make it through.

Race 5: Very competitive handicap, have again taken the field in my Pick 6 if the favorite wins I will at least double up with the scracthing assuming a Snaith runner is not favorite. My EW bet in here is for the Heavenly Flight partnered by the impressive Guyon, with a light weight and good post maiden form at 25/1 must go into all plays. Queen's Club is another outsider to consider. Toughest race of the day for me.

Race 6: Capetown Noir all the rage but at 4/10 is not for me. He is my PA banker but I have taken cover with the Bass coupling to hopefully knock everyone out who bankers CTN. Ze Kaiser for me the best of the Bass runners but the are all competitive.

Race 7: I am strongly in the Viva Maria corner. De Kock and Delpech's best chance of picking up a winner (prefer to Ilsanpietro). She is a very strong front runner as shown in the Woolavington and stayed on well in the Paddock Stakes. If she steals a march at the top of the straight she will be difficult to peg back. The main two dangers I make are Jet Aglow and Hammie's Hooker. I am only going for these 3 in my PA and Pick 6 and brassing All Is Secret and Blueridge Mountain as I am not happy with the draw and fluctuating from the mile to sprint and back to a mile. I am having a decent EW punt on Viva Maria at 6/1.

Race 8: The J&B Met, the big one. After watching her win the Paddock Stakes I fancy Beach Beauty very strongly. I believe she has improved over the past 9 months or so and has a tremendous turn of foot. My concern is the pace, she like a decent pace to be set and if Marcus crawls on Bravura she could pull and cost herself. I am hoping this doesn't happen and she sails past them into the closing stages. I make her main danger the July winner Pomodoro, he has shown how versatile he is and I think he has matured into a better horse since the July, he ran a cracker in the Queen's Plate considering the travelling and that he wasn't fully wound up and will be a serious contender. My third choice in the race is Bravura, ran a brilliant second last year to Igugu with the same pilot aboard, he has been unlucky in his last few runs and if Marcus is allowed to dictate must be a big runner too. Obviously Jackson should be right there and is my 4th choice with the unknown King of Pain and my 5th selection. I am playing a quartet in the race by double floating Beach Beauty and Pomodoro with all of Jackson, Slumdogmillionaire, Master Plan, Martial Eagle, Bravura, Run For It and King of Pain for R504.

Race 9: Brings us back to earth with a bang another competitive MR82 handicap with it either being Captainofmysoul or plenty. I have taken 2 1st PA's the one bankering Captainofmysoul and the other taking 5 horses hoping for a result. I have gone with 6 in my Pick 6 but with the scratching will triple up if one of the Snaith coupling wins (assuming Captainofmysoul is tote favorite).

Race 10: Another competitive handicap. Grasp Your Destiny is ultra consistant and should have been the winner last time out (I am sure Englander will agree winking smiley) I fancy a bit of the 14/1 shot Stone Pine, he is in good form of late, Grant gets on well with him and can hopefully cause an upset. Again I have gone with 5 runners in my PA.

Race 11: I am beginning to sound repetitive, another competitive handicap eye popping smiley. I have looked for value again here and am going for Smart Colleen, she has run 3 good 2nd's in a row and with the weight turnaround with both of Jet Supreme and Jet Lady should be right with these two who are shorter in the betting. I have cut down on my PA and only going 4 here.

Race 12: Lovely race to end off the card with a nice Stayers race. I am going with Dubai Gina as I feel she has been crying out for this trip and the same time last year comfortably won a 2400 meter race. She is the best weighted horse in the race and should take some beating. My initial first choice was Ilsanpietro but after the travelling and quarantine I have gone off him, however at anywhere near his best he will be a big runner. Blake is also a consistant stayer and is certainally not without a chance and Punta Arenas looks to be coming on the right way and if taking to the trip will also be a contender. I couldn't decide which one of the 4 won't make the PA so I am going with all 4 hoping to triple up.

My Big 1st PA comes to R3,000:
Leg 1: 1,5,8,18,19
Leg 2: 2,9,12,14
Leg 3: 1,6,9,13,16
Leg 4: 1
Leg 5: 2,12,13
Leg 6: 2,15
Leg 7: 1,10,11,15,16

My Small 1st PA comes to R80:
Leg 1: 5,19
Leg 2: 2,9,12,14
Leg 3: 1,6,9,13,16
Leg 4: 1
Leg 5: 2
Leg 6: 2,15
Leg 7: 1

My 2nd PA comes to R2,400:
Leg 1: 1
Leg 2: 2,12,13
Leg 3: 2,15
Leg 4: 1,10,11,15,16
Leg 5: 5,7,12,13,15
Leg 6: 4,9,11,14
Leg 7: 1,3,7,11

Finally my Pick 6 comes to R6,912:
Leg 1: 1,2,3,4,7,18
Leg 2: 1,3,6,9,10,11,12,18
Leg 3: 1,4
Leg 4: 2,12,13
Leg 5: 1,2,7,15
Leg 6: 1,2,8,9,16,17

Should be a great day enjoy. thumbs down

Big fields, even nice dutch's are difficult to find, tread wearily.

Race 3, MR 100; #13, TEVEZ; classy, lightly raced, in-form Bass is the gaffer; Shirtliff/Jooste owned; currently 8/1, request 11/1

Race 4, Summer Juvenile; #1, SILK ROAD; unbeaten, speedy, hot Fayd'herbe rides; currently 7/1, shop for 17/2

Race 5, MR80; #10, WESTERN JET; a R450k Jooste owned Jet Master; impressive winner last time, lightly raced

Race 6, Cape Derby; #1, CAPE TOWN NOIR; any price

Race 7, Majorca; Dutch #3 HAPPY ARCHER & #4 FREQUENT FLYER; current effective price for the dutch 15/2

Race 8, the Met; #15 BEACH BEAUTY; impressive winner in the Paddock, classy, unbeaten last two, weight advantage on MR's, in-form Drier trains

Race 9, MR82; #2 ENCHANTING CATHY; a R1.9 million Jooste owned Var, half brother to National Currency; hot Fayd'herbe and Bass

Race 12, J&B Jet Stayers; Dutch #11 DUBAI GINA & #3 IL SANPIETRO; current effective price of the dutch 11/10


Prosperous punting
-

Morning Clanners

On a very difficult card, here are some multiples i've taken :-

Varikate X Code Of Honour (win double)
Code Of Honour (w) X Great Fox (p)
Code Of Honour X Ashton Park (win double)

Break a leg.

Race 3. Barbosa
Race 4. Bold Var
Race 5. Cossack General
Race 6. Awesome Power
Race 7. Viva Maria
Race 8. Pomodora/ Run for It
Race 9. Captain of my Soul

Patriotic rebel had been moved to the marshall stable

5/10, Cape Town Noir, is available right now on Interbet. A bargain...

Grays champ to place

Barbosa and jet supreme double! I am taking Tribal Dance eachway in the Met!

just took a fun bet all places on interbet.

varikate 9/10 3pl R1
casual var 7/20 4pl R2
barbosa 3/10 4pl R3
bold var 11/20 4pl R4
unencumbered 8/10 4pl R5
jackson 2/10 4pl R8
the which doctor 6/10 4pl. R9

R866/R50

Hi Guys

My treble for the day:

Bold Var
Pomodorro
Blake

Don't be too sure that Cape Town Noir will win ..... cover ur bets

I am a Cape Town Noir fan for the July - this may be a bit far at this stage (look for a spook)

Davashan Wrote:

---

> Hi Guys
>
> My treble for the day:
>
> Bold Var
> Pomodorro
> Blake
>
> Don't be too sure that Cape Town Noir will win
> ..... cover ur bets
>
> I am a Cape Town Noir fan for the July - this may
> be a bit far at this stage (look for a spook)


I am NOT a Cape Town Noir fan, and I always look for spooks... which I did diligently... BUT in my opinion they are racing for SECOND.

Race 1- very open race to start of the day ....1000m and they will be gunning for the ouside rail that will cause horses coming of a few lenghs normally can struggle to get a clear run....so i dont fancy horses drawn lower than 6 and horses coming from off the pace so i eliminated nr 3 4 5 6 7 10 11 12 and give only winning chances to 2 8 9 and 13 .......snaith stables fancy VARIKATE and POUNCE (supported heavely antipost) and FIRST FAVOUR (also been supported at long odds) cannot beat these fancies so its for me between the 2 snaith horses and TESTING THE WIND ......on their last encounter Pounce beaten TESTING THE WIND (2kg better off now) by 2 lenghs but through a formline horse western movie and formgrids LBH TESTING THE WIND beaten POUNCE same day same distance giving pounce some weight ......I make a strong value bet nr13 TESTING THE WIND 14/1 3.22

Race 2 - CASUAL VAR looks hard to beat if you scan the card quickly and the stable is very very confident of a huge run......but....take out all the horses drawn lower than 9 and comes from a couple of lenghs back.....that leaves us with a winner from one of these 1 5 8 13 14 16 17....SOVEREIGN SOUND is a very unlucky horse and if his luck changes and with the french jockey he can catch CASUAL VAR just before the finish.....CASUAL VAR,pacy frontrunner over 1000m is untested over the extra 200m and with the headwind it makes this a very tough 1200m,and with 60kg on his back he is no certainty in my books ....others that can make the frame is CODE OF HONOUR ,Cape Royal beat both CASUAL VAR and CODE OF HONOUR and on that formline CODE OF HONOUR have now a 6kg advantage for a 3 lengs beating that makes CODE OF HONOUR a very good chance of beating CASUAL VAR and the fact that CODE OF HONOUR is better drawn and lost against cape royal on cape royal's perfect distance.....i will go exactas and swingers between the 1 X 13 X 14 ...my quartet 1 13 14 x 1 13 14 3 x 1 5 8 13 14 16 17 3 x 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 R59-40 10%

Race 3 - tough race to call.....i like 3 horses but struggle to put my head on one specifically....BARBOSA - Byleveld's best ride of the day,great draw , low weight,backed like a good thing but also untested over the extra 200m but the way he runs on he will see out the trip ......THE WEST IS WIDE - marcus up , great draw , great last run but was penalised to the maximum for that win .....how will he handle the weight ? .......MY JELLY BEAN- @ 33/1 9/2 for a first 4 place he must be value if capturing earlier form in his career...if he reproduce best form he can win from not the worst draw .....how ready is he after a 3 month break? exacta and swingers 5 x 9 x 19

Race 4 - juvenile race that can produce anything.......include 1 2 5 7 9 11 14 in everything....

Race 5- again open ......will the striker bring out the best of PERGAMON ALTER from a very wide draw or will WIND POWER give us a run for our money or will ASHTON PARK get the hattrick.....include in exotics 6 7 9 12 13

Race 6- most open race ever in a derby ......CAPETOWN NOIR @7/20 ......dont even have it in my pa or jackpot or in the first 2 places......maybe crazy but all 5 his full brothers coulnd run past 1600m not even place past 1600m....he is a sprinter-miler and i will take it like a man if he wins but he will through me out of my jackpot and pick 6 then,i cant find anything to maybe think he can stay 2000m....the winner will be any of 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11

Race 7 - VIVA MARIA can make these field galloped and she can win ,the only other older mare that can beat her is HAPPY ARCHER ......the concern is that viva and blueridge mountain is trained by ramsden at the moment and money is pooring onto BLUERIDGE MOUNTAIN......if its true that BRM beats Viva at home then any of nr 2 3 12 13 14 15 16 will win .....

race 8- *JACKSON - cannot win this race and will not be in my exotics - on formlines he didnt improve as a 4 year old and on weights can be beaten by a lot of runners....will be dropped out and boxed in on the rail and will have to much to do ....can run 4th place for me at best . *POMODORO- will run a cracker of a race but on weights their is many dangers,he did improve as a 4 year old and will be in the first 4 places . *SLUMDOGMILLIONAIRE- can be anything and how much did he improve as a 3 year old...will be ridden handy and will be in the finish ,this was the race aimed at from a year ago when he got injured . *MASTER PLAN- good horse but cannot win pomodoro .....can run 3rd at best *MARTIAL EAGLE- had the race of his life in the queens plate but he is a miler,he cant run a tough 2000m ,no chance *BRAVURA- erratic with marcus up but cant see him better than 4th place at best *RUN FOR IT-will be dropped out and will have too much again to do....best can be 3rd place *HILL FIFTY FOUR-good handicapper but have no chance against this field *TRIBAL DANCE- my fancy for the last 7 months,great prep and at the weights he have the beating of pomodoro and jackson ,and he have now a better jockey in Kathi ,byleveld gave him more kak rides than good,if he can be kept out of trouble and just of the frontrunners he have a huge huge chance because he and pomodoro is the only 2 horses that can kick for 600m , i got hammered by many for saying he would have win the july last year ....i said from that day he will win the met but until recently their was no KOP in the race.....if he can beat KOP he can win but it will be tough *BLACK WING- no chance *FABIANI-last race of his career....no chance *ICE MACHINE-miler...no chance *BULSARA- must run the race of his life just to make 4th place *BEACH BEAUTY- huge chance and champion mare but can she beat KOP and POMO......??? can run 2nd at best *KING OF PAIN- my very strong fancy ,3year old that is very strong looking for the trip and will be very very very hard to beat given so much weight ....Hatt to make me proud .....quartet 16 x 2 3 10 15 x 2 3 4 8 10 15 x 1 2 3 4 7 8 10 14 15 R140 and another quartet 2 3 10 15 16 x 2 3 4 8 10 15 16 x 1 2 3 4 7 8 10 14 15 16 x 1 2 3 4 7 8 10 14 15 16 R168 10%

Race 9- 2 horse race if you go on what the trainers say CAPTAINOFMYSOUL and THE WHICH DOCTOR

Race 10- GRASP YOUR DESTINY will be very very hard to beat....include BROWN PENNY

Race 11 - cant see anything winning other than 1 9 11 13 .....

Race 12 - Ilsanpetro 8kg better of at the weights with Blake on 2400m for a 1lengh beating and 3,5 kg for a 3 lenghs beating over 3200m


MY PATENT AND ALL TO COME FOR THE DAY
KOP,GYD ,ILSANN 220/1.....Hope its july time for me again