Another competitve card where bankers look few and far between :S - thoughts on the PA races:
R3: I think the firmer going will suit Hello Polly - certainly has been beaten too many times to be considered for a winning bet, but Striker sticks with her and should at least place; not much between Dolores and Fall of Light on their debuts, Fall of Light should prefer the extra 160m and will be running on at HP - money for Tacit Tiger, but she needs to improve imo - first timers?
R4: Very open maiden plate, but imo Rand Club's first run was quite decent, but had a longish rest and now tries further, still I think on an open card, he could be a possible banker in the P6; not much on exposed form between Kalamata Baby, Commodore Al, Jet City and Cockney Tiger, while Nero found support on debut so needs to considered as well.
R5: I think Tobit won very nicely last time with the blinkers and could have the speed again to go gun to tape here; also coupled for P6 purposes with Palace Town who is running off his turf MR which could make him competitive as well. Vulcan comes back to 1000 again, and coupled with the fact that he could not win last time with a 4kg advantage, makes me think that Tobit will be too speedy for him; Oh Driscoll ran ok in his last two starts and tries cheek pieces, but he has not won for a long time - needs to do more imo. Callisto Moon the only other one with some decent recent form.
R6: The outcome should depend on how good End Result is, he drifted markedly in his debut, but still won well enough, and could be a lot better over the 1600. If he is not up to the task, it becomes wide open imo; Irish Gift is in form and should be good enough for the PA, but there is some form to suggest that he may have his work cut out against Anka Man and even Beat the Odds (although a wide draw probably makes it very difficult for him). Anka Man gets a tongue tie, but he has run poorly with that piece of equipment previously, so how he will go tonight is anyone's guess. Some others to consider include Millennium Wind, Dark Knight (improving adter a rest and MR has come down), Kalarooz Jet and Henry Higgins (very consistent recent form)
R7: How ready is Ilha Bela for this race - if close to her best, she should be hard to beat at these weights, but the fact that Delpech has chosen (or been ordered?) to ride at Scotsville today could be a pointer that she may need the run. She has Atlantic Oak as a a backup in the P6, and even though her last run does not look great, AO still ran to her MR of 90 on my ratings, so could definitely be competitive here. Not much between Shogunner, Glorius Jet and Masai Warrior on collateral form, so MW looks value at 14/1 - all 3 needs to be included imo as well as Straw Market, who looks back to best.
R8: Very open, all the runners (bar Qin Wei) have some sort of chance imo - interesting runner imo is Red Delicous, she has her 3rd run after a long rest, and was considered good enough to run in the SA Fillies Classic last season so could upset with a low weight - load up.
R9: Not much between Stylish Bay, Run Girl Wild, Pretty Lady, Lucky Gambler and Miesque Manor - all 5 need to be included on the P6 and maybe also Madam Arabia, who finished in front of Run Girl Wild last time (but I suspect that RGW had an off day :S)
Enjoy (tu)
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