A competitive card for the most part and I will most likely be looking to play the game of chance with small e/w's on some bigger priced ones. Best of luck to Shrek, Elvis and others with runners (tu)
R1 Pin stab to start. Of those who have run on the course previously none make any appeal. Of the newbies, I prefer Shreya's Angel but I made a note last meeting that high draws over 1000 seemed to struggle to keep up in the early stages. Melli Mou is too short for me for a sand first timer coming back off a long break. That leaves Fab Cat and Constitution. It really is guess work so unlikely to get involved... selection: Fab Cat x Constitution x Shreya's Angel
R2 Another difficult maiden puzzle with a few first timers to the sand and not the most impressive bunch from those with previous experience of the course. Perhaps the pick of the latter are Chevalier and Hobbs Flight. Difficult to choose between the two, in the race won easily by Flag Parade, Hobbs finished 1.75 lengths ahead of Chevalier but it was the latter's sand debut and he is now better drawn. I think Hobbs may be better suited to the drop back in trip though. Beza was only just behind and may also like the drop in trip but no real reason to suggest he will reverse the form from a worse draw than he had that day. Our Folly may need another run after a poor showing last time out coming off a rest. Of the first timers I prefer Fighting Force to the poorly drawn Don't Be Silly and seemingly without much to beat he may be worth an e/w but again not a race to get heavily involved in imo. Selection... Fighting Force x Hobbs Flight x Chevalier
R3 Inn On The Square... hmmm.... chance again but has been poor last two and Zahara's Own has finished infront of her both times (though that reversed the earlier run behind Scarletto). ZO has a poor draw but that was also true in her last run when she may have finished closer but for a loose horse possibly causing her difficulties in running. Lady Julia may prefer the step up in distance and though another who is poorly drawn, she does have useful appie AA on board taking off a little weight. Possible upset horse could be the first timer to the sand New Religion. National Palace if taking to the sand and not needing the run could be a runaway winner... its another open race and it would be no great surprise to find the winner is one not mentioned. For the third consecutive race, small plays only. Selection... Zahara's Own x Lady Julia x IOTS
R4 Water Music tries the distance for the first time but I'm not convinced she will see it out, she does have the 1 box though and Fradd is back in the saddle (1 gold 1 silver from his two previous rides) but at 2/1 I won't take the risk. Beautiful Dawn has PS up but not got a great draw and has not placed in 6 distance attempts. The first timer Lucky Hand could be involved if taking to the surface, good draw and MVR rides. Of the bigger priced ones only Spiritofamphitrite and Princess Rasta made me have more than a cursory glance. SpiritofA unfortunately has a poor draw. Two 3rds from 3 sand runs (over 1000) and does occasionally run a half-decent race. Being by Captain Al there is still a chance that she has more to offer on the surface. Princess R has shown little since the maidens but has a light weight and a decent draw, is a newcomer to sand so always the potential to surprise. Selection... going for the greed option: Spiritofamphitrite x Princess Rasta x Lucky Hand
R5 Difficult to oppose those at the head of the market but there are other possibilities. Both Blue Concorde and Rockingandrolling are better than their recent form suggests and if coming back to their best would have a chance, if their prices drift they may be worth an idiots nibble. Arctic Sun was drawn poorly on his sand debut and may be an improver and Santorina is an interesting sand debut runner. All that said, I will be sticking with Keagan's Jet. Drawn nicely again, has PS back on, is 2/2 on c and d and 4/5 for top 2 course finishes. Hard to see Funny Glory overturning the form from another wide draw but is top 2 6/8 on course and has a gold and silver from 2 c and d attempts, likely to be silver again. Berrymiller is always a danger if she can get rolling early enough but I suspect she will have to settle for third. Selection... Keagan's Jet x Funny Glory x Berrymiller
R6 Memghar would be the obvious one from a better draw but he is drawn widest of all and his record from wide draws appears not to be a particularly good one. Of the others at the head of the market, Silk Master must have a good chance from the 1 box if sand-suited but Lord Foot Wood may have to wait for another day having drawn 10. Storm Surf has two wins (1450) from three course visits but may well need another run after such a lengthy absence. For Freluche may have had excuses on his sand debut but I am not convinced and with the 9 draw, even with PS up, I would like to see more before I back her. Holy Smokey has no great record at course or distance and a trainer who seems not to be firing currently, but he does get a rare decent draw in recent times, the blinkers are off and ran respectably over 1000 in his penultimate run. Could well be e/w value. A complete idiot... Danzig's Odds has caused a surprise before, as happened 5/6 runs back when returning to sprints. Since... ignore Turf run, ignore run against much better, ignore run when drawn 11/12 and overlook last run which was probably too short anyway and find a couple of coins from deep in your pockets and have a small go e/w at 50s, not going to hurt! Selection... Holy Smokey x Danzig's Odds x Silk Master
R7 Pylon. I may look again closer to the off to see if there is any value but I really have no interest in anything else at the current prices.
R8 Can't see Henry Higgins being troubled unless he finds trouble from the draw or a sand newcomer is very good. Kudos for silver and Rand Club third.
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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