"Can Vercingetorix emulate Bush Telegraph?
(27-May-2013)
David Thiselton
Vercingetorix will attempt on Saturday to become the first three-year-old colt since Bush Telegraph to go into the Vodacom Durban July unbeaten when he tackles the Grade 1 Daily News 2000. But it is a reflection on how times have changed that he can expect to carry a good deal more weight in the July than the latter did.
The fact that an increased number of our best older horses are leaving the country is the main reason for three-year-olds carrying more weight in the July. However, the current stringent export protocols have thrown a spanner into the works of the annual ‘three-year-old versus older horse’ July debate this year, as it has led to some of the best, including last year’s July winner Pomodoro, still being in the country.
Bush Telegraph went into the 1987 July unbeaten in eight starts. His wins included a Grade 2 and two Grade 1s as a two-year-old, as well as a Grade 3 and the Grade 1 South African 2000 (now the Daily News 2000) as a three-year-old.
Vercingetorix, on the other hand, has only had three runs and only one of them, the Grade 2 KRA Guineas, was a feature. As it stands he would carry 55kg in the July, while Bush Telegraph carried a featherweight 49kg.
Therefore, some might be quick to say that three-year-olds have it a lot tougher today, but the records suggest the opposite. Bush Telegraph was the first three-year-old to win the July since Yataghan in 1973, but these days three-year-olds dominate the race and have won eight of the last eleven runnings. The obvious difference is that the quality of the older runners has declined.
The seeds of this trend sprouted when the export protocols were changed in 1997, allowing London News to travel overseas and win the QE 11 Cup. Mike de Kock’s successful overseas campaigns since 2003 then put us on the international map and this opened the export floodgates. On the other hand the current ban on direct travel to the EU has meant that less of our older horses have managed to get out of the country in the past two seasons.
Bush Telegraph faced one of the best four-year-olds in South African history, the mighty Model Man, who went into the July as a four-time Grade 1 winner, including the J&B Met.
One of our horses that did make it overseas last year, Soft Falling Rain, would be right up with Model Man in class and the manner in which he won his last start in Dubai over a mile suggests he would have had a chance of staying the July trip.
Among the older horses that are out of the country are July and Met winner Igugu as well as The Apache, who was a touch unlucky when finishing a 2,15 length fourth to Igugu in the 2011 July. The Apache is merit rated 119, Soft Falling Rain is on 118 and Igugu is now 113, down from her South African high of 118. This means that if The Apache had been able to come back here and run in the July, Capetown Noir, who is the top merit rated three-year-old off 110, would carry 53,5kg.
If one were to ask a trainer whether he would rather give 6,5kg to The Apache or 8kg to Model Man, the former would almost certainly be the answer. However, the question whether he would rather give 8kg to Model Man or 3,5kg to last year’s July winner Pomodoro is harder to answer.
Capetown Noir sets the three-year-old benchmark and his form doesn’t have July winner stamped all over it. In the Grade 1 Investec Cape Derby, he only just held off the 83 merit-rated Dynamic and in the Grade 2 KRA Guineas another 83 merit-rated horse Corredor was only 2,25 lengths behind him in third.
However, Capetown Noir is visually better than his form suggests as he sliced through the Cape Derby field like a hot knife through butter, and consequently hit the front too soon, while he fought back like a champion after Vercingetorix had got first run on him in the KRA Guineas, only to lose on the head bob. He is not a certainty to run in the July and his trainer Dean Kannemeyer said it would all depend on the weights.
Trainer Garth Puller is flabbergasted that Corredor, who took nine races to win his maiden, is now merit rated 100, pointing out that he would have to give the winner of the Grade 1 SA Derby, Wylie Hall, 1kg and would receive only 1,5kg from the Grade 1 SA Classic and Listed Politician Stakes winner Love Struck.
Corredor also puts a dampener on Vercingetorix’s form but the latter does have more scope for improvement, described as “still a big baby”, and is also trained by De Kock. Two other Daily News fancies are Yorker and Rock Cocktail, and while the former has not run in a feature yet, he is merit-rated 102.
It can all get a bit confusing. However, Saturday’s Daily News is going to add a lot of fuel to the annual July debates and as always it will it rage on in Totes, on racecourses and in pubs until the magical moment when the Greyville roar heralds the off of the country’s most prestigous race on July 6."
David this article puts the whole weight debacle into perspective. Thanks!
A question that is hard to answer is at what point do we draw a line through a horse as the weights will be too much compared to those in the field had there be an Igugu/The Apache etc still in the race..... Makes a whole lot more horses in the betting look a lot more valuable if you can get to the right one.... I wonder?
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