Vaal Sand Tuesday 11/6/13

shrek Wrote:

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> Englander Wrote:
>

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>

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> > DTF. I did the write-up last evening so you
> still
> > trail in a poor second at best!!
> >
> > Shrek, looks like we are almost of one mind
> > today... worrying
>
>
> Englander that is 2 days in a row, out right
> frightening. X(


It was a long dreammm

2cents Wrote:

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> Dragon Vein Is actually 2kgs well-in today, she
> achieved a 96 in her pen start and a 97 in her
> comeback run


Imo, it depends on which horse is used as the 'line horse' in DV's last run - if you believe Magic Smoke ran to 100, DV did run to 97 - but that would make Lady Julia a 73 vs her 'official' rating of 66; so for me I think DV ran to a rating of abt 93 (as published) which makes her 'right' in the weights. All in all I think that race is a true handicap and any of Masai Warrior, Dragon Vein, Henry Higgins, Spectroscope, Hunter Valley or even one of the Magner coupling could win it - I think a lot is going to depend on the pace of the race and the way the track is running - if they win from the front, Spectroscope will probably be sent to the front (might do so anyway with that weight) - really won in a canter last time and looks good value to me - would be interesting to hear Striker's take on the race.

R4 GAVIN VAN ZYL just 1 runner for the day -STRIKER Rides This one.It a very Costly Jet master R400k .could be a Winner.

R8 SECOND TYCOON a 1 million Captain Al that belong to Jooste and Gavin rides for is at 9/2.ACROSS THE ICE is the current favorite at 3/1 from Tarry Yard which belong to Jooste and Van Niekerk. It just could be Second tycoon to win this race.(tu)

Easy... morning

I don't 100% agree though I do believe it to be possible regarding certain posters. Maybe Dev would care to comment regarding Hwood's attitude and approach to this? I am sure there will be those who would still be sceptical if they deny it though.

With regard to the 14s to 3s... it seems a direct reference to yesterday. As I explained to you, still not wishing to go into the details for obvious reasons, someone else got there first and it had nothing to do with ABC... and it was a long time after my post (not that I am saying they would touch the price because of one of my idiotic selections) that Hwood moved the price.

I have often watched the market movements and it seems to me that sometimes a horse mentioned on ABC does move quite rapidly but more often that not, it does not. There are plenty out there who are big players and don't come on ABC but no doubt see the same things we do sometimes concerning a particular horse, it is more likely they cause the market moves imho. They may well read ABC and act because of a post wanting to get the best price but again, imho, that can be beneficial to others as it demonstrates market confidence rather than hitting it at the last minute when bets are already down and there is no chance to react to the market.

All that said, I confess there are plenty days I delay posting or don't post at all wanting to secure a price... and then get called a w@nker for being an ARM!!! () I never checked but hope that third horse did the business for you yesterday (tu)

3rd horse stopped like it was shot,

i was not referring specifically to yesterday, i am saying though that people follow and if 10 people each have R500 on a 10/1 shot mentioned on here that horse shortens. My comments to you yesterday were tongue in cheek, i knew the bird had flown long before you posted BUT i also knew that once you posted the rest of the flock would leave the cave........That horse shortened from 6/1 to 3/1 and i am sure that was because a lot of people go on.

and as you said sometimes you hold back till your price is secure.

Stiffs (td)

2cents Wrote:

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> Dragon Vein Is actually 2kgs well-in today, she
> achieved a 96 in her pen start and a 97 in her
> comeback run


Not at twice the price will I take a 3 yr old filly carrying 59.5kg's over 1800m's on the sand against these hard knocking older horses. And she is on a four timer :S .... I don't care what the ratings say.

Nice write up Englander, Shrek and Happy Horse and athers must say I find that I would make my selections first
then look at what the can have to say and then decide .... as you could be infuanced by some selections as you all have today R6
on BTO and I think stryker will win with BTO to be over Sadow mode ... 1x7x 2 (nice upset for Q/T and Tri/f)
How ever hope you all have a greate day (tu)

Moose is KORREKT... very nice summary Englander, good write ups from Shrek and THH ..... (tu).

Well done on all write ups.

My PA as i am in cracking form of picking 2nd placed horses at the moment considering i am playing win bets it is not fun. Good PA win yesterday and hoping to follow it up here as well.

All the tens
Dule Leche
Dennis the menace / Selezar
Henry Higgins / Dragon Vein
Sugar Ray / Beat the odds (I also called it, i want my recognition)
McAllister / Aces High
Accross the ice / Second Tycoon

Regarding what easy is talking about, i have thought exactly the same thing for a long time. Hollybucks and the sorts is without a doubt a portal for bookmakers to see where the publics fancies lie.

Now i have a question to throw in the mix and would appreciate if Dev or another bookmaker would try and give an honest answer. A show like FC is sponsored by Betting World and Dev posts best bets from Hollywood. Is there an agreement somewhere that says what horses can be tipped. If for instance Julie / Alister etc all of sudden went on a run and picking 10-1 shots that the public were climbing on to this would effect the profitability of bettingworld. Same goes for Hollywoods picks. magics best tips etc, although sometimes some good tips if those tips were running at a profit would Hollywoood still post them considering they would be running at a loss?

Just something i have always wondered.

Richie

of course they monitor it and act accordingly one of the BIGGEST tipping sites in the world is
1:completely free
2:paid out over £250k in prizes
3: full page advert in racing post every saturday (circa £8k)
4: sponsoring races


how do they do it?
1:traffic/advertising mmmm a little bit
2: information and market trends 98%

www.olbg.com


mental business, and the sheep post there on a daily basis. make their selections and win competitions.......