WednesdayGlorious Goodwood Day Two (Wednesday) Preview, Tips
To Wednesday, and the Duel on the Downs, amongst many other mouth-watering contests. we start with a marathon handicap.
1.55 UBS GOODWOOD STAKES (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-95)
This has been won by National Hunt or dual purpose trainers in five of the last eight years. Messrs Hendo and Johnston have claimed a brace apiece in the past decade. That duo are responsible for all of Lieutenant Miller, Courtesy Call, Broxbourne and Good Morning Star.
Lieutenant Miller stays this sort of trip well enough on the flat, as he showed when third in the Ascot Stakes, a race the same trainer’s Ghimaar was fourth in before winning this in 2010. He’s progressive, and has a verdict over Broxbourne recently too.
Courtesy Call didn’t quite get home in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 2m6f last time, and he might just need it to be like a road. The recent rain means that’s less likely, and on balance I’d be looking elsewhere.
Broxbourne won a good little Ascot handicap the other day, where he was very much suited by the run of the race. He’s been tremendously game and consistent though, and is hard to leave off placepot tickets at least.
Good Morning Star gets an entry here despite having shown little since her good fifth in the Lillie Langtry Stakes at this meeting last year. She did produce a fair effort when sixth in the Chester Cup, beaten just over three lengths, and that form wouldn’t leave her too much to find off a rating of 91. But she’s pretty in and out, and wouldn’t be a reliable proposition.
Those at the top of the weights have done well in this in recent years, and Gassin Gulf is an interesting contender. Formerly with Sir Mark Prescott, he was sold for 130,000 Guineas last October, and not done an awful lot since then to justify the price. He has finished second on both completed starts, either side of a Triumph Hurdle flop, and a stiff stamina test here might be perfect. The trainer has booked Mickael Barzalona, and he should give a good account.
Beyond runs for David Pipe’s stable (second in 2010), and this chap will likely track the pace and stay on. His trip over hurdles is three miles, so there won’t be any stamina doubts and, with his run style and proven stamina, he might be able to improve on last year’s fourth place.
Seaside Sizzler was second in this in 2011 and sixth last year, and is weighted to again run well. A third place in the Queen Alexandra Stakes will have put him spot on and he deserves to find an elusive second turf win.
There is one at the bottom that is super-interesting, but may be ‘gone’. Ermyn Lodge was good enough to finish second in the 2011 Cesarewitch, but has been stuffed out of sight ever since. Wily connections might have been managing this fellow’s handicap mark and, if they have, they’ll be delighted that the handicapper has dropped him down to a three year low of 79. He stays this trip, and has the game to contend IF he’s ‘off’ and not ‘gone’…
Selection: Lieutenant Miller
Each way alternative: Gassin Gulf
Best Bookie Offers: Both SkyBet and RaceBets are paying 1/4 odds on the first FIVE places. Paddy and Boyles are offering money back as cash if your horse finishes second. BetVictor will refund losing bets as a free bet if you’re second.
Placepot Picks
A – 1, 5, 6
B – 4, 8, 12
2.30 NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GORDON STAKES (Group 3)
Seven runners go to post for this traditional trial for the St Leger, and they’re headed by Charlie Appleby’s Irish Derby fourth, Cap O’Rushes. Appleby is the new boss at Moulton Paddocks, former home of Mahmood al Zarooni, and he’ll be keen to put his own stamp on things with a few decent winners in these early days. Indeed, he recorded his first winner on Sunday on only his second day sending out runners, so he’s off the mark already. Let’s have a quick look at the trends first though.
Gordon Stakes Trends
15 of the last 17 (dead heat back in 1998) winners were placed 1-2-3 last time out
10 of the 13 winners to have a rating in that time were scored at least 102, and as high as 118
14 of the last 17 winners ran between 16 and 60 days ago
Trends shortlist: Excess Knowledge
Gordon Stakes Preview
Cap O’Rushes is the highest rated in the field, and has been staying on in his races suggesting he wants further than this mile and a half trip. I think he might be a St Leger sort but I’m not convinced this race will set up to his strengths.
Elkaayed is one of three colts rated four pounds behind Cap O’Rushes on 106. He was outpaced a little over a mile and a quarter last time, and I’d be far from certain on breeding that this extra two poles is what he wants. Excess Knowledge on the other hand looks made for middle to staying distances, being by Monsun out of a Dansili mare.
This will be only his fifth start, and he was screaming for further last time. This could well be Johnny G’s Leger colt, and his record in that race is excellent (three winners in the last six years). He’s a 16/1 shot for the St Leger currently, and that is sure to halve if he wins here. I’ve had a little nibble as I think he’s the most likely winner of the Gordon. But I’m getting ahead of myself…
The third 106 musketeer is the other Godolphin runner, Secret Number, trained by Saeed bin Suroor. Let the blue brigade battle begin! Secret Number looks like a step up in trip will suit, but it could be that he’s just not quite good enough to win at Group level. Three comrehensive defeats would imply that squarely enough, in my view. Not for me.
The same comment is probably true of Havana Beat, though he was a little unlucky not to win last time over a furlong further. Again, I don’t think this trip will show him in his best light and, while he might win a staying Group race, it’s unlikely to be the St Leger.
Testudo is well regarded in the Meehan stable, and he’s a very progressive horse. He was fractions behind Havana Beat in the Bahrain Trophy last time, and there shouldn’t be too much between them again. If anything, Testudo might have slightly more scope to progress, and he ought not to mind a drop of rain either. If there were eight runners, he’d have been a reasonable each way play. But there aren’t. So he’s not!
Selection: Excess Knowledge
Best Bookie Offers: Money back as a free bet with BetVictor if your horse finishes second
Placepot Picks
A – 3
3.05 QIPCO SUSSEX STAKES (Group 1)
And so to the Duel On The Downs. Part Two. Except that, with Declaration Of War joining Toronado and Dawn Approach here, it might have more accurately been called the… erm… Menage a Trois on the Wedneday… or something.
Sussex Stakes Trends
All of the last sixteen winners placed first or second last time out (eleven winners, five second places)
Nine of those sixteen were 3yo’s; four were 4yo’s; and, two were aged five. Four year old’s have the weakest win and place percentage within this range.
Trends shortlist: Dawn Approach, Toronado, Declaration Of War
Sussex Stakes Form Preview
This is a very good race, as you’d expect. Dawn Approach shades favouritism, after recording two verdicts over Toronado. The first of those verdicts was clear cut, in the 2000 Guineas; the second was marginal, in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
Given Toronado’s home reputation, his Guineas run was too bad to be true, in the same way that Dawn Approach’s Derby run was. Forgive a horse a bad run, the old adage goes, and both of these have justified punters’ absolution by running hum-dingers to be separated by a short head that last day.
Of the pair, Toronado arguably has more progression, with just six runs to his name, versus nine for Dawn Approach. But Dawn Approach showed a serious winning attitude when refusing to be beaten at Ascot. This one can be over-thought: the fact is there won’t be much between them if they both bring their A games and, as such, if a bet must be struck, it must be struck on the bigger priced of the pair.
But that ignores the big blue elephant in the room. Declaration Of War is a very good miler. He won the Queen Anne Stakes over that trip the day before Dawn and Toro locked hooves at Royal Ascot. I wasn’t convinced he truly stayed a mile and a quarter in Group 1 company last time, and I thought he ‘hung tough’ in the circumstances to get placed.
Back at his optimal – at least, what I perceive to be his optimal – he has very little to find on the book. Yes, he’s giving his youngers eight pounds here. But if you subscribe to the weight-for-age scale, which has been shown to be generally accurate down the years, then that’s fair enough. That would give DoW three pounds to find. He’s only had nine career starts himself, so is hardly incapable of further development. And we know he won’t mind what the ground is, a comment which doesn’t apply equally to his key market rivals.
