How important are the weights?

Excellent post by Hibs on handicapping. This is the ideal..looking at a horses performance.

What is not taken into account, and these are probably more important than a horses ability.
1). Jockey...
2). Trainer, and his strategy....
3). Trainer and his choice of jockey for a particular ride..
4). Bookies liability if a horse wins.


None of this can be proven as fact, but something to take into account, after a horses ability has been rated.

We seen time and again, how a horse that cannot lose, actually loses, sometimes by a short head.

We see how horses with the worst of draws, wins.

We see how the a badly handicapped horse, wins.

We see how a horse with zero ability, suddenly wins.

So, I guess my point is that with even the most sophisticated handicapping skills, what handicapping does not take into account is the human factor.

What handicapping doesn't take into account....some days the horse feels better than other days....or in my case....some days the horse doesn't feel like running....

You would be surprised how 1 pound will slow horse down given everything being equal, say Horse A dead heat with Horse B over 1600m hundred meters but A is carrying 60 kg and B is carrying 57kg and an apprentice jockey had a claim of 1.5kg. Do you think the weight wont matter the next time they run, do you think these horse are equal in terms of weight?

Horse A is clearly 4.5kg better than horse B, now imagine if these horses were to meet in a handicap race and B is carrying 59kg horse A will still beat Horse B by 6.5kg or to spice things up what if B had an apprentice who claimed 4kg still, A will still prevail by 2kg. Sometimes when an apprentice jock fails to win it is not that he could not ride the horse better but the horse was still inferior in terms weight....

My advice I would pay very closed attention from the last weight carried to today's weight carried in order to beat the races.. Im not saying I do but nothing ever surprises me when who beats who at the wire....

Horse racing is in my veins...

Pirhobeta Wrote:

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> What handicapping doesn't take into
> account....some days the horse feels better than
> other days....or in my case....some days the horse
> doesn't feel like running....

A good trainer would know how to prepare his horses..Once they have been accepted, dont you think so.

And some days the jockey is not feeling too well either, and just does not feel like riding, and some days there is just more money to be lost than won, ....or should it be won than lost, depending who is in the pound seat....so just blame it on the horse.

NEIGHHH!...
Please don't blame the poor lazy horses,they're just getting a prep run
Blame the Jockeys:D

We all like to applaud our skills when we have a good win but we never consider how lucky we really were because of all the other runners' misfortunes.

w.r.t. the horse's own weight, a number of places like Singapore weigh horses before a race. Then the punter can compare the horse's weight today against its weight when it last ran. Not against the weight of other horses, that's irrelevant. A horse can be looking fit and slim on the outside, but like all of us, it carries a lot of fat inside the body, e.g. round the kidneys. That's normal, a reserve and also to protect those organs. But when it it "racing fit" it is really stripped.

Countries that allow the use of Lasix are cashing in on making the horse itself lighter. Lasix makes the horse pee like anything, and loose a lot of weight via the water. Of course this also lowers blood pressure so it doesn't bleed as easily ... that's used as the justification for using it at all.

But in the USA nearly every horse gets treated as if it was a bleeder, even if it never bled in its life, for the simple reason that loosing 15-20 kg on race day makes a big difference to its chances. And when it's up against a field of horses that have all had Lasix, how can a horse carry 15-20 kg more than them and still beat them? It would have to be another Secretariat.

Bling was 1/2 kg over weight today on Shiver and Shine,dead heat

Its as important as a 1-2MR raise

heinrich Wrote:

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> Its as important as a 1-2MR raise

If it wasn't for the overweight would Shiver and Shine have won outright? (He dead-heated). That is the question.

Mac Wrote:

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> heinrich Wrote:
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>

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> > Its as important as a 1-2MR raise
>
> If it wasn't for the overweight would Shiver and
> Shine have won outright? (He dead-heated). That is
> the question.


Or, would she have won with another jock that could make the weight - we will never know :S

Anonymous User Wrote:

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> Lucky_Dude Wrote:
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> > Normally I prefer fillies carrying less weight
>
>
>
> but its the hravies that can take a pounding


WTF ???? Anonymous User ..... no registration information..... HIBS...How did this oke get IN HERE ?????