Paying for tips

What works for you is all good. I have to say some blokes on here are really knowledgeable and I have often spotted them select winners a day before the races, but mostly posted 30 minutes before the race. Almost every day since I started looking at the forum a poster has posted a winner out of the blue late in the day. Englander one of them with his recent trifecta that was spot on. Some bloke also flew in late with a beautiful summary of Rambo's chances. What is strange though, is that these same blokes often post absolutely ridiculous selections that I am certain will not win. I often wonder how much superstition is involved compared to actual fact. I have read many posters posting selections based on a flutter or the way a horse looked in the ring...absolute nonsense. The television commentators speaks of the best looking horse in the ring every single day every single race, and yet I cannot remember the last time a best looking horse in the ring crossed the line first. Tell me its speed and distance in the last and I will compare it to his peers, and will tell you with great amounts of certainty whether is has a chance of winning.

Anyway fellas, been hungry for a chat with fellow punters so apologies for the long winded posts. Best of luck today.

punter is what makes it possible for the professionals to make a living from horse racing. My entire "working" income comes from horse racing, albeit being a retired bloke. I have worked endless hours at perfecting it,

I can't wait for the Prof to start putting up selections,

Hi Dave, I reckon Supreme Lord will run a big race today...

Do the tipsters recommend to their clients to take their exotics with a bookie or the tote ?

I initially used only my eyes and jotted down a list of occurrences that kept popping up. Like a horse that goes up in distance is at a disadvantage in terms of my scale or a points based system, especially if up in weight as well. But as time went by I realized that I was neglecting plenty information that could cancel a horse as a contender, So I gathered as many old computaforms as I could and manually captured all the information in Excel, which I am quite proficient with. I was not interested in selecting horses but rather to study the behaviour of statistics and the behaviour of that on races. I still make many mistakes, but profit has swung in my favour as value has become key.

To give you an example, Englander and I chatted about Princess Creo, which I was certain would not win, but I just threw out the first two donkeys as my selections, having not looked properly at each horse. When you look at the winner of that race you will notice that is was the best 1000 meter horse, by a country mile, albeit stepping up to 1200. You can then deduce that my selections will fall out, as they are evenly matched, yet the 1000m contender of that lot is still nowhere near the horse that eventually won. The simple key to winning more often than not is trying to find the true speed and performance of a horse, in its last form race, compared to it's peers, taking distance calculations in to account. The draw then comes in to slight play. Screw the going, all horses are running in the same going so it is a null. I cannot say that going has ever affected the outcome of selections. I cannot say the way a horse looked in the parade ring has ever indicated winning streak. Sand is a bugger as the times need to be thoroughly studied when a horse with good sand form goes to turf...they often are much faster than the sand times suggest. These are just some indicators, but probably the best advice I can give anybody. All you will get from me is cold hard facts. based on statistics and true speed, which to me, is the holy grail, the philosophers stone, if ever it can be consistently attained... and we all know the whereabouts of this sought after gem don't we Madji?...

Excel and SQL will only help you cut the clutter. It is so much easier to select from 4 horses than it is 16. Slower horses will not win and you don't even have to worry about them. When you are left with 4 horses you can easily capture their details in a table and separate truth from fiction.

Prof Wrote:

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> Hi Dave, I reckon Supreme Lord will run a big race
> today...


My type of race,ew bet with 9 runners..

Prof, I has a database in my head... but my server needs a firmware upgrade {reaches for bottle JWB...takes a haftey slug} I agree with the shortlisting. What people often miss is the value of knowing what NOT to back.

Look boys I am no great tipster, and often make mistakes. But mistakes are what they are. It means that I neglected to spot something.
My database is also in my head but with the addition of bacterially and aerobically derived alcohol mixed with Coke or just on the rocks, the result is often a page file duplication in one of my tables, which leads to poor discipline, which leads to mouthing off on a racing forum, which leads to looking like a fool and losing money. So I apply a methodology which lays down best practices and a solid guideline to avoiding mistakes and it helps, but my greatest weakness remains myself and my utter love of procrastination and the fermented stuff, and to a lesser degree the wonder of my Achilles tendon, the shapely female and her various fragrances.

Even though Storm Dancer ran a 2400 last, it was darn quick overall...so preliminarily Supreme Lord.

Geez Prof.... you human after all....{drops Penthouse magazine on floor, raises shot glass in toast}
Now go have a nibble on Ventura in the last. . . .and that is not a tip... is advice.

Sounds like a split- personality...

To give you an idea Davey, It is now just after 10 in the morning and I have already had intercourse (non-racing related) and a bottle of Cabernet Sauvignon...all while selecting Supreme Lord...

And never take a tip from a man under the influence, learnt that sitting alone in my house...