Vaal Sand Thursday

the first should be to Daves liking ?

Hidalgo Wrote:

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> Early doubles for me -
> Hobb's Flight x Eugenes (value)
> '' x Pylon (the obvious)


of the opinion Tobe Turf Terror could have the beating of HF ?

Normal sort of seemingly straight forward races mixed with quite a few very challenging events - thoughts:

R2: Pylon the obvious one, but the Azzie stable was slightly disappointing on Saturday; probably looking for spooks where there are none, but I'm backing P up in my larger PA with Spectroscope - who is in form and likes the sand, so may not be the worst place bet. Imo Jet Jamboree is not a 113, and anyway the stable has not been in great form recently; Magic Smoke imo could struggle to see out the 1800; Emperor Augustus on breeding should not be bothered by the sand, so could be P's biggest danger at these weights - IF he indeed does act on the sand

R3: Obviously both the top two takes to the sand for the first time, so not impossible that both run out of the money - Salute the Sun has run well without the blinkers this trip and could pick up the pieces from a great draw should both Win a Million and Translator not get their acts together on the sand; agree with Englander that Handsome Dancer may improve, but taking the draws into account, I think he will be held again by StS

R4: Noble Wind should walk this IF she can repeat her last run - but she comes from behind and on Saturday not many came from behind to win; if NW does not win, it becomes wide open imo; Pretty Lady probably second best and not much separating all of Hunt the Stars (may prefer shorter, but does run from the front), Shirla, Black Magic Woman, Day At The Races and French Approval on previous form (at current odds Black Magic Woman looks worth and each way stab); race further complicated by sand debutantes Asiatic Pearl and Sail On

R5: The 3 top ones in the betting does stand out a bit imo; but none look certain to feature - Authenticated has mixed fortunes over this trip (in one of his worst runs, he is comfortably held by Takaamul - who was well beaten in Kimberley), so maybe Wishful Heart is the right one out of the 3, although only winning his maiden last time, he jumps from a nice draw and Stiker rides, so more improvement certainly possible; of the rest not much separate Croke Park and Passion Pleaser, so both could surprise; also Chesire Cat now gets a run and although drawn wide, has found some betting support - again not easy.

R6: Savannah Montana really looks the right one, only drawback is the stable's disappointing performance last week on the turf; still one really has to scrape the barrel to find something to beat her; 2nd choice accarding to the betting Countess Bacardi does look better over 1000 imo, Set to Strike comes out of a good run (from a 1 draw) before a rest, but is drawn wide today, as is another possible place getter Shreya's Angel ; Englander's Danielle could be a lurker on one previous run behind Miravar, however hard to know what she will do today - so at 50/1 she did represent some value imo; another who at a stretch could maybe upset imo is Ink Heart, who may improve in her 2nd run after a rest from a good draw.

R7: Another very competitve handicap, where imo Flaming Forge (even running off his low sand MR) is really no value over this trip; Where's My Chop can probably be forgiven his last poor effort over this trip (but has always shown a preference for 1200 imo); both Erasmus runners come from wide draws, but have place credentials, and it would be fitting if Paintyourface could put his best foot forward; also Saratoga Magic tries the sand, but could easily take a liking to it - those are the main ones imo.

R8: Looks like the 2nd easiest race on the card where Pigeon Power looks difficult to oppose after a facile last win; 2nd choice clearly Beautiful Dawn, who has some fair recent form and should go well for Striker from a good draw; others with place chances imo include Spiritofamphitrite and my roughie Mrs Ching, who gets the blinkers back on and ran a fair pinultimate over the trip behind Shattered Image

All the best on a rather sad day

vis Wrote:

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> Any ideas on why judge the stride is the favourite
> in the first? Two bad runs, now gelded. Don't
> know.
>
> ... Also blinkers and tt.


Mosia rides well in these races , particularly when money down, also good stats for trainer / 8 runs /4 wins / 2 places.

knavesmire Wrote:

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> vis Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Any ideas on why judge the stride is the
> favourite
> > in the first? Two bad runs, now gelded. Don't
> > know.
> >
> > ... Also blinkers and tt.
>
>
> Mosia rides well in these races , particularly
> when money down, also good stats for trainer / 8
> runs /4 wins / 2 places.

Sure, but not convinced. Left it in my quartet' just in case.

My thoughts on an extremely weak looking card are

Race 1 Judge the stride win
Race 2 Pylon win
Race 3 Salute the sun and Shepherds song to place
Race 4 Sail on win
Race 5 Takaamul win
Race 6 Star Voyager place
Race 7 Saratoga Magic win and Sermon to place
Race 8 Cochineal and the Angelus to place

Take care

Morning Clan,

R1 - 1 Gypsy Al 9/2
R4 - 6 Shirla 6/1
R5 - 2 Jumbo 9/2
R7 - 2 Saratoga Magic 6/1

Thats my YANKY......

PA - 2/4,8/6,8/2/4,9/2,4,5,11/1,2,6,11 - R128

Happy Punting

Ben-Hur Wrote:

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> Hidalgo Wrote:
>

---

>

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> > Early doubles for me -
> > Hobb's Flight x Eugenes (value)
> > '' x Pylon (the obvious)
>
>
> of the opinion Tobe Turf Terror could have the
> beating of HF ?


These races normally have a well short fav so maybe the presence of some decent workriders throws it open. My concern with Mabaya (T T T ) would be that his wins have mainly been MDK but T Lukhele / Mosia / Duma & Semela provide interest.

Probably be Judge and e/w on River Romance for me

Speed ratings for main contenders with previous Vaal Sand form –

R1 WKR MDN 1450m
74…Hobb’s Flight 9/2
71…Golden Dollar 5/1
69…King 16/1
65…Tobe Turf Terror 20/1
61…River Romance 20/1
57…Bushveld’s Pride 66/1
??…Gypsy Al 11/2
??…Zapateo 5/1
??…Judge the Stride 33/10
Well a real brainteaser to start the card.
Never thought Hobb’s Flight would be top of the ratings (and by the top of the boards) yet here we go…has the credentials to win here yet invariably throws in some lousy performances among some good ones…not that confident today!
The race won’t need a star to win it and therefore the last 3 listed runners need some consideration, however feel more inclined to go with those who have shown some sand form and will double float Golden Dollar and Tobe Turf Terror in the quartet.

R2 COND 1800m
117…Jet Jamboree 5/2
116…Pylon 9/10
105…Spectroscope 16/1
101…Emperor Augustus 5/1
The Jet Jamboree figure comes from way back in Apr’12, then a 103 in this June, so the real sand ability of this contender is not clear, whilst for Pylon it is.
Questions around many… Magic Smoke-distance and last two runs, Emperor Augustus-long time since VS run, Spectroscope-disappointed lto. All points to Pylon again.

R3 MDN 1000m
79…Handsome Dancer 20/1
72…Salute the Sun 12/1
70…Magic of Rome 33/1
69…Jimmy’s Lightning 12/1
61…Royal Stock 25/1
??…Translator 18/10
??…Ah-ha 20/1
??…Win a Million 14/10
Probable that the draw plays a significant part here thereby enhancing the chances of most of the above. Salute the Sun is looking the best place ‘value’ proposition on the day and possibly a PA banker.


R4 MDN-F 1800m
82…Pretty Lady 7/2
78…Noble Wind 22/10
67…Day at the Races 7/1
66…Hunt the Stars 14/1
65…Shirla 7/1
64…Black Magic Women 40/1
??…Sail On 8/1
Do not want to complicate this race too much…Pretty Lady looks a PA banker, should include Sail On in the P6 because of the stables record at VS.

R5 MR68 1200m
95…Authenticated 28/10
94…Takaamul 4/1
93…Passion Pleaser 8/1
90…Jumbo 5/1
84…Wishful Heart 4/1
82…Croke Park 16/1
Authenticated probably better over this 1200m and has shown good recent form yet not a lot of value…this applies to most of these runners. Passion Pleaser ran a ‘lifetime’ best lto yet tends to be erratic even though figures to be the best ‘value’ here. Kwaaiwater (25/1) has the best history and could be the ‘lurker’ yet all 3 VS wins have been over the 1000m and this is his first time over 1200m here. Would be expecting to see the 3-Y-O Wishful Heart showing further improvement and a definite P6 inclusion.

R6 MR64F 1200m
84…Savannah Montana 15/10
82…Set to Strike 5/1
81…Carousel 10/1
78…Countess Bacardi 3/1
74…Star Voyager 50/1
70…Danielle 20/1
70…Shreya’s Angel 4/1
Not looking beyond the top 3 in the ratings. Including Star Voyager and Danielle (yes) in the quartet as place possibles.

R7 MR72 1450m
95…Where’s My Chop 4/1
91…King Scott 9/2
88…Chedwin Park 11/2
86…Bareback 16/1
85…Start Your Engines 12/1
82…Catamagic 66/1
In spite of his worst ever VS run lto Where’s My Chop is the confident selection…Bareback being a concern (personal) yet again!

R8 MR 68F 1450m
94…Pigeon Power 2/1
85...Fanzene 12/1
82…Beautiful Dawn 4/1
81…Zena’s Own 20/1
80…Cerise Silk 12/1
75…Spiritofamphirite 9/1
Pigeon Power looks far superior here…some value with Zena’s Own and Fanzene for the places.

Off-topic here

Zim vs Pak Test match

Sportingbet - Zim 1.44 Draw 6.5 Pak 4.2
Bet365 - Zim 4.33 Draw 6.0 Pak 1.5

How on earth does that happen?

kingramses Wrote:

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> Off-topic here
>
> Zim vs Pak Test match
>
> Sportingbet - Zim 1.44 Draw 6.5 Pak 4.2
> Bet365 - Zim 4.33 Draw 6.0 Pak 1.5
>
> How on earth does that happen?


Sportingbet have switched ZIm and Pakistan around. Bet365 correct.

I get that they switched around, but it's been like that for an hour, how does no one pick it up?