Let's try a pen pic.
Pylon:The best sand horse we've had.As much as I love this horse(and he's been good for the wallet too) he's just not in the race for me.He simply won't have the pace to dictate in his usual manner over this trip.
Not a place.
Uncle Tommy:An expensive purchase,he too has come into his own since finding the surface he's bred to relish.His 5 pound penalty for running 2nd last time will be undoing imo,but he's still a massive runner from a good draw and is certainly one to include in the pa.
Good place chance.
Contador:He looks to have a tough task reversing form with Uncle Tommy and Here Comes Billy on his last run,and I have serious doubts he wants the extra anyway.The wide draw hardly helps either.
Not a place.
Across The Ice:He gets a big weight swing with some of the horses that beat him last time,but he clearly finds the 1450m too far and his wide draw makes it even tougher.
Not a place.
Mr Tobin:A top sand horse a year ago,his unsoundness has caught up with him this season.Despite his preference for the mile,he is capable of running well this trip,but in a race full of sand specialists his inability to travel early in his races(which appears to be getting worse and worse) means that he will have far too much to do up the stretch unless they go an absolutely suicidal pace up front.I would probably add him into quartets,but I really can't have him.
Just out the places.
Jet Jamboree: Scratched
In A Rush:He's likely to take to the surface,and must obviously show decent enough work at home in order for them to take their chances here.It's really hard to fit him in here though,and I just can't have any confidence that he could be good enough against this lot.
Not a place.
Here Comes Billy:This has to be the horse to beat.He's found top form at the right time,had no problem taking to the surface last time,and simply has to run well here.My only concern is that he's seems to have found his niche since dropped right back in trip.Does he really want the extra?
Big runner,but some trip reservations.
Magic Smoke: She obviously has a very good sand record,but 1450m is at her bottom end in terms of trip.She only won last time because Formation wants 1200m,and she's been extremely well campaigned in terms of the races she has contested on this surface.Invariably she has been slung in.Despite having the master up,she's not for me.
Not a place.
Tiger's Retreat:This is for me!Horses trying the sand for the 1st time in this race have a poor record,but if ever one was bred to love this surface this is it.By Tiger Ridge out of a Fort Wood mare,you couldn't ask better Vaal sand breeding,and this horse has alway had a rep.The trip is perfect,he is well drawn and imo he will run his race.Here Come Billy came to the surface for the 1st time last time and won a feature,and I could definitely see this one doing in it a race where plenty have negatives imo.I'm going out on a limb,but this is the right horse in my book.
WINNER
Tayba:Bred to love the sand,she has.She too has been extremely well placed to date,all 3 of her last runs being in races where she was 'best in'.She clearly is getting better on the surface too,as she has been more convincing with each run.However,the distance is a big concern for me.Although her dam has thrown an out and out stayer in Atyeb,he clearly takes after his father Rock Of Gibraltar,whereas Tayba is by Western Winter who is much more of a speed sire.Although I think she is likely to run well,the 1450m will find her out late imo.
5th.
War Horse:Although he does produce sand winners,Victory Moon(although he obviously won on the Dubai sand) is hardly a prolific sand sire at the Vaal.War Horse was amongst the best of his crop,but the males in that crop were a poor bunch.He is probably capable of running a decent race,but from his draw and the fact that he comes to the surface for the 1st time he's not for me this time.He is a big price if he does like the surface though.
Not a place.
Shattered Image: She's in form,but a rating of 100 seems too high for her.She only won a MR 86 last time,and I don't like the fact that her jock keeps the ride when he can't get his -4 claim,it just makes no sense.The track and trip is obviously alright,but she's not for me in this race.
Not a place.
Storm Surf:He had an extremely tough task at the weights last time,and he obviously gets a very big swing at the weights with those that beat him last time this time around.He has a great CD record,gets a big race jock and is likely to run well.The wide draw is the obvious major concern for one who usually races up handy,so he'll have to expend energy trying to overcome that.I think he'll run well,but that the draw will find him out late.
4th.
Nice Stride: Only 3 runs on the sand,but shown reasonable form in all 3.He has a weight turnaround with many of what I would consider to be the main protagonists,so has to have a semblance of a chance of filling the places,but 1450m does look a touch on the far side for him.
Not a place.
Summation:This race has a lot of 'holes' in it.Too many horses have various doubts in my book,so I'm going to pick some value and go for Tiger's Retreat to do on his 1st attempt on this surface.
Selection:10-8-2-14
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