oscar Wrote:
> Signature very well today guys
Break a leg, oscar (tu)
Usual mix of a few straight-forward looking races, mixed up with some complicated handicaps - and even the Pinnacle Stakes does not look clear-cut imo - also quite a few clouds about, so there is a possiblity of some showers, which could really throw the proverbial cat amongst the pigeons.
R1: Delemere really looks the part, especially as the 2nd choice in the market should as per the stable's way, not be 100% tuned up in his first start and one of the other possible dangers, Montelupo is drawn wide and also looks like needing more ground
R2: Not 100% convinced about Krystle Carrington as I have some doubts about the strength of the field in her debut run, and there could be a surprise improver lurking around - not a race I'm getting involved in
R3: Wild Ash overdue to win and had some excuses in her last start; hard to beat imo; obvious 2nd choice for me would be Flight Check and I would like to see Nondweni's Filly prove firstly that she can run on the turf and secondly that she goes the trip, before following her
R4: Very open looking fillies and mares handicap for apprentices, where a lot of the runners look really well in, courtesy of the appy allowances; however I think one needs to take into consideration that some of them should probably receive an even bigger allowance taking their 'inexperience' into account. Tentative first choice for me is Fun City, who ran in a Novice Plate last week (possibly in preparation for this) - she has one of the better apprentices in the saddle and has run well over this trip before; logical back ups would be Kailani (but her rating has really gone up sharply recently) and Rodeo Sioux (better over more ground, as confirmed by her trainer on USO this morning); next best probably Olympia Beijing - has the widest draw, but at least have a capable rider - and Magic Jet; Black and White also seemingly very well in, but I have my doubts about the appy and she has a wide draw to boot; any of Bermuda Bowl, Shreyas's Choice, High Lake and even Quantum Leap also capable of surprising if their riders make the right moves.
R5: Pinnacle plate, but wide open imo; Balse certainly put up a very good run last week, but while he must have a chance, is not a good thing imo; Signature will probably set the pace, and a lot will depend whether the apprentice can judge the pace correctly; Salutation is best in at the weights, but has not won over this trip and seemingly appears better over more ground and the stable jock is on Winter Desire, who also appears better over slightly further; not much between Balse, Kindle (set to improve imo) and Mirage Drive (when last did the stable have a winner? ) on their runs last week and although Snappy Lad is seemingly held by Signature on their last meeting, I would not be suprised if the order is reversed today; that only leaves Rakaan, who on jockey arrangements, could be the stable elect; all in all not easy.
R6: Another open handicap; Streetbouncer drawn wide, but is expected to go close as per the Team G podcast; only 1/2 a kg out at the weights if one takes his official MR as gospel; should go close here imo on his good juvenile form; Magic's Magic is in good form and should be right there again imo from a good draw; Memeza is another who is running consistently, but has had a poor run on the inside track once before and it could be that he prefers it down the straight; Arctic Sun is another in good form, but seems held by MM now and also may prefer a touch further imo; Hallowed won the last time he came to this track, but has gone up in the weights, so I prefer others; Ahoy Captain has been running over further, but has 3 wins over the distance, so would not be total shock if he wins - again not easy
R7: Keeping in the mould of competive handicaps, here we have another one; at the weights Ohiki Bay is the right one, but I'm worried about the apprentice; very little between Fortitude, Blaze of Respect and Divine Grace, so the value imo would be Fortitude; Virginia Sound needs more ground imo and also the stable jock is on Fortitude; Golden Dawn could be competitive, but could need the run slightly as per PeterD; Aim of the Game's last win was over this trip, but she has gone up quite a lot in MR, so has something to find imo and Cyclone Michelle although running thereabouts, has not won in quite a while
R8: This does look easier; not much between Royal Wings and Perfect Winter, so RW clearly the value; Passionate Kiss seems better on the standside track; money for both Alexander runners, so could both be worth including if you are looking for that 'big' P6.
R9: A lot would depend on how well both Updike (clealy fancied if one looks at the betting support) and Adventure can overcome their wide draws. They could both be assisted if Ali does indeed set a fast pace; the rest look moderate; for trifectas and quartets, I 'd be looking at Commodore Al and Expedition Leader, who could take advantage of a pole position draw to run into the money.
Enjoy (tu)
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