Clairwood Park Tuesday 24th

ShezaPunter Wrote:

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> Apart from R1 and R2 this card looks too
> difficult? Or maybe its just me?

agree as well.
even PA should PA bombs

Ben-Hur Wrote:

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> Does anyone have an opinion on Professor X


nice odds also(tu)

ShezaPunter Wrote:

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> That's my bet as well bayern..
> I can't see the 2nd race fav getting
> beaten..infact I like it more than the 1st race
> fav


With you Shezapunter, First favorite not that strong

Bombs coming race 6 and race 7 in exotics

I expect to see some decent improvement from Sensei in the second race. Will wait for the drift before taking fixed places. Others I fancy strong today are Panama Man and Rocket Lady. Bankered those two in my place accumulator.

How about WILLIAM CONQUEST for a good thing in race 7 ? On my system showing a good bet. Any inputs?

Ben-Hur Wrote:

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> Careful with the second Bayern


Tend to agree. Not saying it cannot win, but nothing has come from the Obligation form-lines where-as there have been winners from both The fifth day & Perfect Circle. Also 1st time around the turn, but drawn well. Perfect Circle has a wide draw and 1st time @ this course. The Fifth Day with blinkers on today and drawn mid-field, down in trip.....will be between these 3.

Im on a different wave length to most.

Just heard Smanga not riding today so some of my ramblings below need to be amended.

Race 1 – Stay away. Too many 1st timers. If anything Victorias love at 9/10 a top 4 seems more value than the 12/10 on offer on the fav to win.

Race 2 – Kalidar has value at 2.25/1 a place. I like horses with good speed and Kalidar really has that. However, I also like the look of Sensei. Its run on the 21/07 has produced 5 winners from 10 subsequent starts. Sensei was drawn 10th around the bend there and was only 6lengths off a strong field.

Race 3 – The top 2 in the betting look the right ones here. If it wasn’t Marcus aboard though I wouldn’t give Summertime much of chance from the 15 draw round the bend. The one to watch in this race for me is Roc n Rose. Moved from the Laff stable to Howells and has been in training since April without a run. Will probably need this run but has been put over much further before this. Also is drawn out wide but with Marcus probably taking Summertime across early it should leave the outside of the pack wide open for this horse who will have no stamina problems. If he can find speed around the last turn expect it to be fighting for the finish.

Race 4 – As the betting suggests, this could go anyway. Roy Royale looks to be well positioned but coming out of the maidens this field is much stronger than it has faced and taking 8 runs to break its maiden doesn’t bode well for a follow up victory. Should be in the top 3 though. Excuse my French drops in class but carries 63kgs before the appy allowance. Will need to be extra special with that weight from the 10 draw to win this one. My pick for this race is Dun Carrer. Won early in its career over the sprint distances and then was tried over the marathon distances. Took a break 3 months ago and came back to its favoured distance at this course last month. The horse it beat won its subsequent run as well. Dun Carrer is drawn in poll round the bend, and carrying 2nd bottom weight I expect this to be right up there. Last time out drifted from 9s to 19-1 and snuck a victory. Seems to be drifting again so don’t get scared.

Race 5 – Another tight one to call. Midnight Run and Panama man comes down in class and are all evenly weighted. I am a bit surprised that Cormack rides Driers other horse in the race. Midnight run comes off a rest, so based on this I will side with Panama Man. Smanga also takes his only ride for the MDK stable and Veale who rides MDK other 2 is on the Miller horse. I would go wide in exotics here.

Race 6 – The 3 year old Angie seems to hold most of this field at the weights, the only problem I have is that KDM hasn’t managed to get close with her which tends to make me look away from any of these formlines. The 2 1 time winners at the top of the betting seem to be the ones to go for. I'm going with Superman on The Civilian as it has course and distance experience. I expect the quartet to pay in this race.

Race 7 - If William Conquest can overcome the 15 draw I don’t see anything getting close. If it misses any number of horses can win this.

Race 8 – Another race where the good horses are draw very wide. If William Conquest wins the 7th I expect the double form Tarry / Smanga. Belt up has the form and will be in the top 4, but whether Brandon Lerena is good enough to get this horse out the maidens remains to be seen. Belt Up is 3up after rest and the intent with keeping Lerena up is definitely there.

ShezaPunter Wrote:

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> That's my bet as well bayern..
> I can't see the 2nd race fav getting
> beaten..infact I like it more than the 1st race
> fav

With any natural improvement Obligation can win but on the strength of his first run at Clairwood where there has been 8 runners 7 of which have run unplaced and the fact that the family has done absolutely nothing 12/10 has to be way too short, wont put you off backing it Sheza but I would not take this price he will go much much bigger closer to the race..

maluti possibly better over the 1600m but still think he has a decent eachway chance today... father ted untried over the distance but think dc stable has a strong hand in the 7th, did young zackey get the choice of rides?

Ou Ryperd Wrote:

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> Ben-Hur Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Careful with the second Bayern
>
>
> Tend to agree. Not saying it cannot win, but
> nothing has come from the Obligation form-lines
> where-as there have been winners from both The
> fifth day & Perfect Circle. Also 1st time around
> the turn, but drawn well. Perfect Circle has a
> wide draw and 1st time @ this course. The Fifth
> Day with blinkers on today and drawn mid-field,
> down in trip.....will be between these 3.


I made The Fifth Day a very good bet
Whether for win I don't know but it shows up quite strong.
As you say Oom formline on favourite not strong so a win isn't impossible

Guys I really like resolution van zyl said to short but I think theres a strong head wind and theres surely going to b a gud pace my bet for the day

mr p Wrote:

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> Guys I really like resolution van zyl said to
> short but I think theres a strong head wind and
> theres surely going to b a gud pace my bet for
> the day

and with Summertime drawn badly must be worth a bet...(tu)