Turffontein Inside Track Tuesday 1/10/13

Scratchings please and thank you

Flag Turffontein
Going Good
False Rail (m) 7.0
Penetrometer 21.0
Wind Cross wind
Rainfall (mm) 24 hours - 0.0
7 days - 0.0
Other Info Weather: Clear
Jockeys
Not Riding Andrew Fortune

Scratched
Race Number - Name
2 13 - COUNTRY STRONG
14 - JIMMYS LIGHTNING
4 7 - MONACO PRINCESS
6 1 - SOLEIL ROYAL
7 - HENRY OF YORK (AUS)
8 7 - LANE GEENA

Jockey Changes
Race Number - Change
2 11 - Robbie Fradd
3 3 - To be advised
4 3 - Gavin Lerena

Other Info
Race Number Change
3 9 First Timer
4 12 First Timer

Flag Quick Mix

Thanks Mr H. Where does the best place bet lie today?

Interseting card despite the 5 maiden races imo; thoughts

R2: Obviously Tiger Sight all the rage - but not for me due to too many negatives, as mentioned earlier in the thread; also Abstract from a wide looks no value either and Antonini could need further - so maybe the first timer Shakaland is worth an each way bet here - also money for the other first timer Brave Casey :S

R3: The de Kock first timer Miss Rocky probably the right one looking at the betting; at the odds I much rather prefer the chances of Leah's Little Love - improved last effort and holds Cloud Cuckoo Land (wide draw does not help) on collateral times imo; Running Sensation has a place chance, but also needs to overcome a wide draw, so LLL each way for me

R4: The Light House is coming back in trip to a 1200 after trying further in her first two efforts - hard to know what to make of her over this distance; Barefoot Lady looks inconsistent, but would have an obvious chance if repeating her pinultimate run; many of the others including Sweet Harlem, Merlins Gem, Elusive de Lage, On Cloud Nine and Sugaree (very good debut run) could suprise on their best efforts and even the debutante Wild Dancer could prove good enough from a widish draw over a trip whick looks too sharp on breeding - not easy imo

R5: Novice Plate for fillies and mares so it should be not too difficult; however the race is complicated imo by Ntombe coming back to a 1000 after a convincing maiden win over 1200; Second Bite has not convinced me yet; Katch may improve for her new stable, but is drawn widest of all, so I'm looking at some of the longer shots like Shiver and Shake (not much between her and Tell My Star when they met over 1000 at the Vaal in May) and Favourite Daughter, who easily beat Tell My Star (on the sand though) and now gets weight from her

R6: Our Folly was my 2nd choice after Henry of York, so now does look very good value imo - comes out of some strong form lines and from a stable that is in very good form - Fradd does not hurt either; main dangers are Sammy Silver, (beat a fairly weak field imo last time and has to give OF 2.5 kg), Bodybuilder (could be looking for more ground imo) and the in-form Beat the Odds; for a couple of roughies for the quartets I'd consider Sir Swarovski (may improve back on the turf) and Bezant (nicely drawn and could upset if finding his best form)

R7: Miss Stingray is really knocking at the door for that 2nd win and has every chance today; finished in front Dover Beach last time when both were drawn wide and is a 1/2 kg better off with her (Aucharuz no longer claims) today - 5/1 still looks good value to me - however the race does not stop there - Orlando Magic looks held by both MS and DB, but jumps from a nice draw so has a definite place chance, two roughies I'd consider are Besame Mucho (bit short at 9/1 though) and Ice Goddess, who could be looking for this kind of distance

R8: Open looking handicap to close; Summertime has been knocking at the door in KZN and should be right there again from a fair draw; both Danish Zealot and Stunning Eyes have found betting support in their recent runs, but both imo need to show a bit more; Mogok's Express had a good debut run, but needs some luck from a wide draw, so the best value to me is Wensleydale, who comes out of a strong race last ime and has the plum draw - definite each way value imo

Enjoy (tu)

PeeKay Wrote:

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> Thanks Mr H. Where does the best place bet lie
> today?

high risk - Shayna - low risk Elusive De Lage

mr hawaii Wrote:

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> vis Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Friendly question: is the Joe Soma yard a
> punting
> > stable?
>
>
> absolutely


Interesting with Soma having 3 entered.
Whilst I am still on a learning curve with racing over there ( look for info from clan posters (tu)) I have found these workrider races to be a decent little earner potential.
Unless there is a potential hotpot , (which might even win with me up :), I have found that sticking with the better of the in-experienced riders pays dividends.
My thoughts on todays race (for what they are worth) are that SEMELA is the stand-out but most of his wins seem to be short prices ,mainly for MDK, T LUKHELE rides well and trainer recent form @Turf seems good. SIYABONGA like this lad but I'm not sure about Tolmays form here. MUNDLOVU (again like this lad - gave me (and I think some of the clanners a nice win last week)) but Trainer record don't seem good and most of winners ridden by SEMELA. This nicely brings me to my STUMOR which is ridden by MOSIA who IMO has far and away the best record here and Botes has a reasonable enough record here with his only runner being FIRST DAY:.
My interest for win purposes would be GYPSY AL with roughies ATLAS GROVE & of course FIRST DAY.

Apologies for the ramble which may come to nothing but ?????????

Good luck to all today

Morning Clan...

I better post something before i get called Haley's Comet;)

PA: 4,12 x 1,9 x 1,5,10 x 5,6 x 2,5 x 8,9 x 3,4.....R192.00

Best Bet:
R3-1
R4-1
R7-10
R8-3

Happy punting.

PeeKay Wrote:

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> Thanks Mr H. Where does the best place bet lie
> today?


Imo best place value by far is Miss Stingray at 1/1 (tu)

Frodo Wrote:

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> PeeKay Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Thanks Mr H. Where does the best place bet lie
> > today?
>
>
> Imo best place value by far is Miss Stingray at
> 1/1 (tu)


Thanks Mr H and Frodo, appreciate it

Master Polly
Tiger Slight
Dover Beach

Nice write-up Frodo, thanks. Gives a couple of confidence boosters too, had exactly the same as you with regard to Henry's absense in the 6th, am e/w on Our Folly at 20s. Also have Summertime and Wensleydale as my exacta in the last. Think Sugaree worth a nibble in the 4th too and disappointed I spotted the possibilities in Wallasey too late to get the 40s but did manage a little on at 20s.

Despite a most esteemed colleague here not particularly liking my first selection the price is just too big for me to ignore (and I was on before BH posted but happy I am not the only one who saw there was perhaps some potential for an upset there, even if he does end up finishing last by 50 lengths! lol)... idiots patent...

R3 4 Monsoon Wind
R4 9 Sugaree
R6 5 Our Folly

Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)

Think this card will throw some very strange results and expect the exotics to pay very well. Will try the following e/w double

Border Patrol into The Light House...16/1