Clouds beginning to gather - would not be a surprise to have an interrupted meeting - thoughts:
R1: Yellow Wood Tree should improve further, however based on his last run, no value imo - Put Foot Singe from pole position perhaps not bad value at evens for the first 3 :S
R2: Guessing game between the first timers :S
R3: Stirling Leaves looks sure to place imo - draw however a problem so Khumalo will have to try and get her handy without overextending her - in her favor is that this looks a moderated bunch on exposed form - Var's die Geld (probably the main danger) does not have the greatest draw either and Sisters of Mercy needs further improvement imo - so for me the backup in the PA to SL is Rubies and Pearls - think she will be in front with 200m to go and should hold on for a place; Slinky Jalinky and Kimura Cat quartet inclusions imo
R4: Honey Bun should prove hard to beat imo - should be looking for this trip and has a nice draw to boot; Ikamisu ran well in her debut, but the draw could see her second best again - not many of the others can be ignored for 3rd and 4th imo
R5: Tricky contest - Greasepaint had a convincing maiden win over this trip, but that was not a strong field and he has been given quite a high rating imo - still should place from a nice draw; Tuesday Child many people's fancy, but for me better over 1200 - still must have a chance with Striker retaining the ride; best outsider imo is Bold Flash who ran a fair race behind Katch last time - drawn and pole position and will go into my PA
R6: Conditions plate where the best rated runners are prices at 12's and 16'' respectively; for me this is another difficult race; Dolomiti has as good a chance as any, but does not appeal to me at current odds; Tzigane has been holding form well and should be right there again; best value imo Margot on Stage, well beaten by Tzigane in her last two efforts, but imo will improve on the softer ground; also Music Affair appeals to me at 14/1 - just need to repeat he pinultimate over this trip to be concerned with the finish imo
R7: Not getting any easier ; the handicapper had Arctic Sun running to about 10 points higher than the 94 he races off here;however that is the Potala Palace race where the ratings were 'confusing' imo - so would be interesting what happens today - if the handicapper is correct he will beat this field easily, but I have my doubts - still looks unlikely that he will miss a place; Matthew Ethan looks well in and should feature from a nice draw; others to consider are Stavinsky, who needs a longer straight imo - but could still run on to place, Turnstone - very nice win last time and comes from a hot stable, and for trifectas and quartets I'd also include Tender Twilight - at best over this trip and has run against stronger imo ; tries the blinkers and with Fradd in the irons can not be ignored imo
R8: Another handicap where the field looks well matched; Barbel Run may be on the upgrade and could be the right one from the hot Laird stable - by Joshua Dancer, so not guaranteed to get the 1450; all of Reign Victorius (should improve after rest), Quad Bay (nice maiden win in a good time), Soleil Royal and Beza is suited to this trip, so have obvious claims; while Swift Fox and The Saint can sneak into the places as well from wide draws
R9: Nice staying handicap to close; on form Golden Orb looks the right one after a good second behind Jet Fever last time; only slight doubt is if he will see out the extra 400, but if he does I think the 5/1 does not look bad value; nothing between Signature, Sky Rise and The Who on their last meeting, so all 3 need to be considered again, while Great White tries a marathon trip - if he stays could be the 'dark grey' in the field as he has Golden Orb held over 1800.
Enjoy (tu)
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