Paying For Tips

done loopy....thanks again mate(tu)

I am following Englander today.
Losing too much following senorsanta on twitter.

Merlin's Wrote:

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> I am following Englander today.
> Losing too much following senorsanta on twitter.

That's why I like automated ratings based on solid data rather than a run of good form" feeling followed by a bad patch due to a personality going through good/ tough times...give me the hard facts that data reflects any day ... Something consistent which I can quantify...(tu)

loopy

in theory that makes sense....

having said that in a toss of a coin if heads is repeated 333 times in a row
what are the odds (probability) of it being heads again?

easy Wrote:

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> loopy
>
> in theory that makes sense....
>
> having said that in a toss of a coin if heads is
> repeated 333 times in a row
> what are the odds (probability) of it being heads
> again?


50/50....as always.

correct

so then what database can one accurately use to find winners?

it cannot be pure math, it has to have elements of gut feel, local knowledge

70% horse / 30 % personnel.... sortof...

i can see that ratio and don't disagree....

but within horse % i break it down further

1: trainer form for me most important
2: horse form
3: jockey repeat and equipment change
4: jockey

easy Wrote:

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> i can see that ratio and don't disagree....
>
> but within horse % i break it down further
>
> 1: trainer form for me most important
> 2: horse form
> 3: jockey repeat and equipment change
> 4: jockey


Throw in the mix,trying or not.

I reckon kne of the worst innovations has been subjective Merit rratings. It is useless unless somewhere they publish the line horse for every race they handicap.

davetheflower Wrote:

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> easy Wrote:
>

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>

---

> > i can see that ratio and don't disagree....
> >
> > but within horse % i break it down further
> >
> > 1: trainer form for me most important
> > 2: horse form
> > 3: jockey repeat and equipment change
> > 4: jockey
>
>
> Throw in the mix,trying or not.

That unfortunately is where we as punters get screwed. No matter how good your form study is or how long you been in the game, knowign this factor is the make or break of any system.

You people make it sound like rocket science!