Fairview 14-03-14

Yes no rain today
Pen is 25 going good to soft

The Happy Horseplayer Wrote:

---

> A characteristic of Fairview racing is how close
> up behind the winner the majority of the field
> finish. Clearly evident on poly – True Lonhro
> 11th of 16 btn 3.95, Pindan Blue 10th of 15 btn
> 2.95, Shreya’s Angel 11th of 14 btn 3.05.
> Similar on turf – Big Daddy 11th of 16 btn 6.0,
> General Jubilations 13th of 17 btn 5.7, and whilst
> this happens occasionally at other tracks such
> results regularly apply in PE.
>
> As a consequence form analysis and evaluations
> indicate more consistency than is apparent when
> looking at results relative to the market.
> A good example was Maximo winning on 29th Jan.,
> paid R25.90 a win, R5.10 a place, recording a
> speed rating (SR) of 94.
> Previously recorded a SR of 94 when 5th of 13 btn
> 4.75, prior to that a SR of 91 when 10th of 11 btn
> 10.15. Since the win ran 2nd of 11 beaten 1.25
> with a SR of 96.
>
> A similar example involves Sound Surround who ran
> her best race to date earlier this week when
> running 6th of 14 btn 1.85 recording a SR 92.
> Previously 89 (when 10th) – 89 (won) – 84 –
> 85 – 85.
>
>
> Another characteristic of Fairview is the success
> of the ‘girls’ in the training ranks, and now
> there comes another contender for the ‘one’ to
> follow in Renate du Plessis.
> As a quartet player you have to admire her stats
> for the number of top 4 finishers she has produced
> so far, significantly superior to anyone else –
> long may it continue.
>
> Sure there are ‘upsets’ and ‘failures’ yet
> all-in-all I certainly enjoy the challenge and
> experience.


Nice post THH...(tu)(tu)

Race 2 - 13h10
2 SEATTLE JOE [Full Claim] 11/10




Race 7 - 16h15
1 SEA CAT [Full Claim] 11/10


Race 8 - 16h50
3 COTTON CANDY [Full Claim] 11/20

Sea cat x seattle joe x black pegasus
Any idea grass or poly tomoro

Only 1 bet on da double...PACYANO and KINGS SUMMIT!!!

Race 6 no 1: Black Pegasus 7/10 is a joke beat gifford who can't get out his own way no 3: Elegantes 5/1 ran behind Zacharias, last time distance too far I'm having a good bet tomorrow
Race 3 no 9 Forest Nymph 11/2 ran a short head behind Kings Summit 28/10 on a line through Ado Annie, I'm with the 9 tomorrow
Good luck to all, play well

Yankee for the day
Kings Summit
Act of Faith
Sea Cat
Cotton Candy

forest nymph onto cotton candy

Race 1: Pipette - Ze Evah
Race 2: Seatle Joe - Amarillo Starlight
Race 3:Bayswater Road - Forest Nymph- Alamo - Kings Summit
Race 4: River Tyne- Lucky Lear- Ado Annie
Race 5: Fiscardo - Duke of Destiny - Act of Faith
Race 6: Black Pegasus - Elegantes- Atrums
Race 7: Sea Cat- Shingwedzi
Race 8: Cotton Candy
Race 9: African Lily - Princess Creo- Variety Star - Pacific Line - Mia Forza

Race 1 Merkel
Race 2 Seattle Joe
Race 3 Kings Summit
ATC 90/1

Race 6 Wogsy.

Current race results (from Oct’13) show the following draw patterns –

FVT 1000m – nothing dominating
FVT 1200m – slight advantage for those drawn 2-8, certainly not exclusive
FVT 1400m – ditto
FVT 1600m – only slight preference for draws 1-10
Certainly nothing to get excited about, or to base selections on draw alone.

FVP 1000m – draws 1-8 favoured (Sustain Space only 1st/2nd from draw 10 )
FVP 1200m – draws 1-5 looking most favoured yet there have been 4 winners from draw 10 and 8 places (2nd,3rd,4th) from draw 9, higher draws poor.
FVP 1400m – similar to the 1200m yet not many races run todate.
FVP 1600m – draws 1-8 looking most favoured.
Early trends favouring the lower drawn, as expected…few manage good results from those higher draws (Nautical Gem a recent exception), usually worth following if they do.
Prefer ‘form’ backed up by a good draw as selection criteria, and cannot incl. runners purely based on draw alone at this stage.

A better perspective is achieved, at least for the poly track, when comparing results with those of the Vaal Sand with the known draw bias.
The draw over the 12 and 14 VS are far more significant than FVP - (Pareto principle – 80/20 rule always applies), see draw results race 9 yesterday.

Jockey Richard Fourie - Good riding day is predicted!!! Follow all his rides.