Two from me today.
Race 5 - This is probably a stupid bet as the figures suggest she hasn't got much of a chance but Rushing Elf back over this C&D on turf has always shaped like she'd be better than her rating and although she was a little disappointing behind a couple of these last time out, and now faces them on worse terms, she's capable on her day and if they went a good pace here, then she'll go close. A frustrating sort, shown in full effect on her penultimate outing, a big drifter in the market, she made startling headway from the back of the field and was only 1.25 lengths back at the finish, a result which looked pretty unlikely 400m. She doesn't win as often as she should, but she's more than capable on her day. They didn't go quick enough last time, which is never going to suit her running style.
Although she faces Augusta National on worse terms than if this was a handicap and has been behind her last twice, they're more likely to go a better pace here today, she loves this distance and course and is overpriced at double figure odds. She'll run her race and if they go quick enough, then she's going to go very close.
Race 6 - The current favourite in Laurie's Gold was a selection of mine on Saturday and he ran OK in a fair race but there's no way he should be such a short price here today, especially considering he hardly had an easy race and it was only a few days ago. I'd much prefer the first time blinkered Red Barrel who has shown some really good form lately and will likely improve again for the headgear. I have him at around 3/1 so is an obvious bet at current odds. Red Barrel has been running in good races recently and his last start (his worse for a while) wasn't even that bad. Drawn wide, he was only beaten around two lengths and the drift in the market suggested that connections weren't particularly confident. It was still a fair effort and on the bare ratings, a replication would have him quite close to winning this.
I've every reason though to expect better though today. The 1400m trip could bring improvement, as he always shows plenty of dash over the mile and alongside that, he's been ultra consistent at this trip in the past. He's only had three starts at the distance and has never been out of the frame (one win) and he's still massively unexposed at this distance. Blinkers are a positive, especially when dropping in trip and stop any problems of him being outpaced. I think he's a really nice bet today at his current odds.
Had a small win double with the two also (tu)
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
