Vaal Sand Thursday 3/7/14
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Re: Re: Vaal Sand Thursday 3/7/14
10 years 11 months ago
Waffle time 
Found this a pretty tough card so was surprised to end up with a few favs,,,
R1 Mystical Star has disappointed too often and has yet to prove herself on the surface, way too short for me at 5/2ish. Run The Arrow looks held by Shirla on their run behind Elegant Parade and the price is too short for me to take a chance that the form might be overturned given Shirla is possibly an inconsistent performer. The latter has 6 silvers and a bronze in 13 c runs and must be respected but she just does not convince me and is not one I would be taking at the short odds though she is probably the most likely winner. Game Plan and Argobada appear out of it on sand form to date. The newcomer to the surface Lightning Lily has a positive indicator in the breeding suggesting she might improve on the surface but may need it after 24 weeks off and hasn't shown much on the turf. But, she could represent the best value so... LIGHTNING LILY x SHIRLA x RUN THE ARROW
R2 Only a small field of 5 but nevertheless a somewhat tricky affair where I don't totally discount any of them. Captain's Diva is perhaps the least likely based on collateral and taking on some potentially decent males, she won well on her only c visit though. Money has come for the de Kock newcomer but I don't always trust money where that stable is concerned. Nothing in the breeding suggests to me Mazroon is one that will definitely take to the surface but the stable is going well of late and it would seem unlikely they would put him on the sand if there was zero confidence. Tiger's Legacy has a few lengths to find with Malta Rocks and though he shouldn't be discounted, there is no obvious reason why he should over turn the form. He was 5,5l clear of the third and did the form no harm by winning nto in not the worst maiden field ever. Precursor makes his sand debut and has run some decent races on the turf, the breeding gives a positive and the trainer has been in excellent form. Has the 1 box and if taking to the sand then could be the one they have to beat... PERCURSOR x MALTA ROCKS x TIGER'S LEGACY
R3 The closer I look the less certain I am on this one lol. King's Consent looks the one to beat based on his slow away 2nd to Tiger's Legacy (runs in the 2nd). He has a potentially tricky draw in 8 and with the bend to contend with now, another tardy start could again be costly. He did come from a long way back though that day and the extra d could well allow him to utilise his seemingly strong finish to better affect. If the draw or start does cause a problem then, the interesting one, or perhaps better put, niggler for me is Ermine Street. Recent efforts have not been inspiring but were over further and not from the best of draws, Striker was on last time and had been down to retain the ride so it is possible he recommended the drop in d. His best sand run was his debut effort here when, from his best draw to date, he was outrun late to get silver over 1450. He has the potentially very advantageous 1 box here. He finished 1.5l in front of Amour De La Bonte that day but had the form subsequently reversed when also 3l adrift of Triple Distilled. The latter has to enter calculations but is possibly somewhat inconsistent and was disappointing lto here. Still, he also has a much better draw today and has 2 silvers from his 3 c/d runs. He was 3.25l behind the better drawn Master Banker though in that last run with MB running on well for 3rd despite a tardy start. The draw advantage is reversed today though and MB was disappointing on the flat earlier in the week. My Beloved was further behind that day but may have found trouble in running, of his own making, it is difficult to be sure from the replay. Worth noting though, either as a potential plus for him or a minus for others, in his penultimate run he was only 2.15l off Tiger's Legacy over 1000 despite losing ground at the start and perhaps not having the clearest of paths. An R1 idiot has been played but the draw has not been kind, 11. Sirocco Bay was 3.75l behind KC when returning from a 17 week break lto and was running on well towards the finish and can't be discounted from a good draw in 2 (he has finished in front of Amour DLB twice). Fort Success made a decent enough debut at Bingo but not sure that form will prove good enough here. If anything else wins, what a waste of time this was!!! KING's CONSENT x ERMINE STREET x SIROCCO BAY
R4 Probably a race to avoid! Nothing I like. Best Western and Cassia must have chances if taking to the surface but no positive indicators in the breeding. They both have relatively good draws though and the field looks decidedly moderate. Cassia is up against male rivals here though so preference of the two is for BW with the stable doing well recently but the price is too short for me to get involved even in this field. A couple of scratchings could have made it more competitive, as I gave both Blazing Al and Fortress Mine decent shouts but alas they are out. King's Wild for me is likely to over turn the form with Royal Stock over the extra 200, KW has the 2 box here to help his chances but I am not convinced the form of his last run is anything "special". Stable mate Green Dollar is the complete idiot selection in the race, poor recent form but takes a drop in trip here and that may help him feature in this field. The selection though is also fair value imo and will be Tiger Tales who ran well at Bingo lto from a wide draw and his form here is not the worst on show, the d though is something of a concern... TIGER TALES x KING'S WILD x GREEN DOLLAR
R5 The Spies stable had 4 declared for this race and Chambers has (presumably) chosen to partner Party Peg. That is potentially significant in itself but particularly as this one is making her sand debut on the back of some decent turf form. There is a potential positive indicator in the breeding and she has Ballerini well held on turf form with the latter closely matched to a few other rivals here on sand form. This of course could be entirely different depending on whether PP enjoys the sand but the indications would seem good based on the jockey arrangements and breeding that she is likely to do so. If she fails to fire then Latino Ice and Ballerini could be the ones to take advantage but, on lines through Runaway Time, I think Set in Stone and Red Please also have claims and are much better value. SIS finished just 0.25l in front of RP lto over 1200 when about 8l behind the easy winner but only 0.75l behind Coral Key, a Spies scratching here. That could be a further pointer for PP but, CK has some ok form at Bingo. Interestingly, in that race SIS pulled well away from RP before the latter rallied to come home the stronger of the two, whether there was an issue with RP at about the 700/800 I have no clue but on that evidence I would have a preference for SIS over this d but I'm not entirely convinced and RP is double the odds. Anyway, check the form and videos out for yourselves if you wish! There is a potential positive indicator in the breeding for Indulge representing the Woodruff yard and thus he must be considered... PARTY PEG x SET IN STONE x RED PLEASE
R6 NIGEL MANSELL x PEREGRINE x CHESALON x MASTER ENTERTAINER
R7 Not doing a scrawl but have possible negatives against the top 3 in the market and am not convinced by them if truth be told. Ajuba has consistent form and though behind Eternity lto he was coming off a 18 week break and pulled that day. The high draw is something of a concern but hopefully he will be able to overcome that. The main danger could be a recent favourite of mine, Imperial Empress. She takes on the boys here but usually runs on well and has the 1 box to assist this time... AJUBA x IMPERIAL EMPRESS x ETERNITY
R8 Plenty of opportunities and though I like the selection, it would be no great surprise if on the day he ran out of the first three. The main candidates for me... Filly Bushwacker ran on very nicely and came from a long way back on sand debut lto, she takes a big drop in class but is weighted accordingly. Up against the boys here but could have sufficient class to win and the appie retains the ride taking a little weight off. Tarry has another runner in the field on whom Khumalo was originally up, Regents Agency, though the initial jockey bookings may not be so significant here. RA is making his sand debut and there are some positive indicators in the breeding that he will take to the surface. Skyfall was a good maiden winner lto but comes off a 16 week break and, particularly with that in mind, I have a preference for the other one coming out of the maidens, There Is A Dream. He was drawn 12/12 over 1200 on sand debut in his penultimate outing but finished like a locomotive from a long way back, after being switched to the inside rail, to get up for silver. Drawn 2 lto over 1450 the "tactics" were different and he tracked the leader before asserting over the closing 200. Both have a chance but not the easiest of maiden races to equate in terms of strength. Perfect Trip from something of a better draw might not have to burn up as much energy as when trying to race handy last time out when drawn 14, still ran on nicely for 3rd behind Nero. the latter came from a long way back though and was running on strongly, PT could go closer today but I will side with Nero again on that run... NERO x THERE IS A DREAM x PERFECT TRIP
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
Found this a pretty tough card so was surprised to end up with a few favs,,,R1 Mystical Star has disappointed too often and has yet to prove herself on the surface, way too short for me at 5/2ish. Run The Arrow looks held by Shirla on their run behind Elegant Parade and the price is too short for me to take a chance that the form might be overturned given Shirla is possibly an inconsistent performer. The latter has 6 silvers and a bronze in 13 c runs and must be respected but she just does not convince me and is not one I would be taking at the short odds though she is probably the most likely winner. Game Plan and Argobada appear out of it on sand form to date. The newcomer to the surface Lightning Lily has a positive indicator in the breeding suggesting she might improve on the surface but may need it after 24 weeks off and hasn't shown much on the turf. But, she could represent the best value so... LIGHTNING LILY x SHIRLA x RUN THE ARROW
R2 Only a small field of 5 but nevertheless a somewhat tricky affair where I don't totally discount any of them. Captain's Diva is perhaps the least likely based on collateral and taking on some potentially decent males, she won well on her only c visit though. Money has come for the de Kock newcomer but I don't always trust money where that stable is concerned. Nothing in the breeding suggests to me Mazroon is one that will definitely take to the surface but the stable is going well of late and it would seem unlikely they would put him on the sand if there was zero confidence. Tiger's Legacy has a few lengths to find with Malta Rocks and though he shouldn't be discounted, there is no obvious reason why he should over turn the form. He was 5,5l clear of the third and did the form no harm by winning nto in not the worst maiden field ever. Precursor makes his sand debut and has run some decent races on the turf, the breeding gives a positive and the trainer has been in excellent form. Has the 1 box and if taking to the sand then could be the one they have to beat... PERCURSOR x MALTA ROCKS x TIGER'S LEGACY
R3 The closer I look the less certain I am on this one lol. King's Consent looks the one to beat based on his slow away 2nd to Tiger's Legacy (runs in the 2nd). He has a potentially tricky draw in 8 and with the bend to contend with now, another tardy start could again be costly. He did come from a long way back though that day and the extra d could well allow him to utilise his seemingly strong finish to better affect. If the draw or start does cause a problem then, the interesting one, or perhaps better put, niggler for me is Ermine Street. Recent efforts have not been inspiring but were over further and not from the best of draws, Striker was on last time and had been down to retain the ride so it is possible he recommended the drop in d. His best sand run was his debut effort here when, from his best draw to date, he was outrun late to get silver over 1450. He has the potentially very advantageous 1 box here. He finished 1.5l in front of Amour De La Bonte that day but had the form subsequently reversed when also 3l adrift of Triple Distilled. The latter has to enter calculations but is possibly somewhat inconsistent and was disappointing lto here. Still, he also has a much better draw today and has 2 silvers from his 3 c/d runs. He was 3.25l behind the better drawn Master Banker though in that last run with MB running on well for 3rd despite a tardy start. The draw advantage is reversed today though and MB was disappointing on the flat earlier in the week. My Beloved was further behind that day but may have found trouble in running, of his own making, it is difficult to be sure from the replay. Worth noting though, either as a potential plus for him or a minus for others, in his penultimate run he was only 2.15l off Tiger's Legacy over 1000 despite losing ground at the start and perhaps not having the clearest of paths. An R1 idiot has been played but the draw has not been kind, 11. Sirocco Bay was 3.75l behind KC when returning from a 17 week break lto and was running on well towards the finish and can't be discounted from a good draw in 2 (he has finished in front of Amour DLB twice). Fort Success made a decent enough debut at Bingo but not sure that form will prove good enough here. If anything else wins, what a waste of time this was!!! KING's CONSENT x ERMINE STREET x SIROCCO BAY
R4 Probably a race to avoid! Nothing I like. Best Western and Cassia must have chances if taking to the surface but no positive indicators in the breeding. They both have relatively good draws though and the field looks decidedly moderate. Cassia is up against male rivals here though so preference of the two is for BW with the stable doing well recently but the price is too short for me to get involved even in this field. A couple of scratchings could have made it more competitive, as I gave both Blazing Al and Fortress Mine decent shouts but alas they are out. King's Wild for me is likely to over turn the form with Royal Stock over the extra 200, KW has the 2 box here to help his chances but I am not convinced the form of his last run is anything "special". Stable mate Green Dollar is the complete idiot selection in the race, poor recent form but takes a drop in trip here and that may help him feature in this field. The selection though is also fair value imo and will be Tiger Tales who ran well at Bingo lto from a wide draw and his form here is not the worst on show, the d though is something of a concern... TIGER TALES x KING'S WILD x GREEN DOLLAR
R5 The Spies stable had 4 declared for this race and Chambers has (presumably) chosen to partner Party Peg. That is potentially significant in itself but particularly as this one is making her sand debut on the back of some decent turf form. There is a potential positive indicator in the breeding and she has Ballerini well held on turf form with the latter closely matched to a few other rivals here on sand form. This of course could be entirely different depending on whether PP enjoys the sand but the indications would seem good based on the jockey arrangements and breeding that she is likely to do so. If she fails to fire then Latino Ice and Ballerini could be the ones to take advantage but, on lines through Runaway Time, I think Set in Stone and Red Please also have claims and are much better value. SIS finished just 0.25l in front of RP lto over 1200 when about 8l behind the easy winner but only 0.75l behind Coral Key, a Spies scratching here. That could be a further pointer for PP but, CK has some ok form at Bingo. Interestingly, in that race SIS pulled well away from RP before the latter rallied to come home the stronger of the two, whether there was an issue with RP at about the 700/800 I have no clue but on that evidence I would have a preference for SIS over this d but I'm not entirely convinced and RP is double the odds. Anyway, check the form and videos out for yourselves if you wish! There is a potential positive indicator in the breeding for Indulge representing the Woodruff yard and thus he must be considered... PARTY PEG x SET IN STONE x RED PLEASE
R6 NIGEL MANSELL x PEREGRINE x CHESALON x MASTER ENTERTAINER
R7 Not doing a scrawl but have possible negatives against the top 3 in the market and am not convinced by them if truth be told. Ajuba has consistent form and though behind Eternity lto he was coming off a 18 week break and pulled that day. The high draw is something of a concern but hopefully he will be able to overcome that. The main danger could be a recent favourite of mine, Imperial Empress. She takes on the boys here but usually runs on well and has the 1 box to assist this time... AJUBA x IMPERIAL EMPRESS x ETERNITY
R8 Plenty of opportunities and though I like the selection, it would be no great surprise if on the day he ran out of the first three. The main candidates for me... Filly Bushwacker ran on very nicely and came from a long way back on sand debut lto, she takes a big drop in class but is weighted accordingly. Up against the boys here but could have sufficient class to win and the appie retains the ride taking a little weight off. Tarry has another runner in the field on whom Khumalo was originally up, Regents Agency, though the initial jockey bookings may not be so significant here. RA is making his sand debut and there are some positive indicators in the breeding that he will take to the surface. Skyfall was a good maiden winner lto but comes off a 16 week break and, particularly with that in mind, I have a preference for the other one coming out of the maidens, There Is A Dream. He was drawn 12/12 over 1200 on sand debut in his penultimate outing but finished like a locomotive from a long way back, after being switched to the inside rail, to get up for silver. Drawn 2 lto over 1450 the "tactics" were different and he tracked the leader before asserting over the closing 200. Both have a chance but not the easiest of maiden races to equate in terms of strength. Perfect Trip from something of a better draw might not have to burn up as much energy as when trying to race handy last time out when drawn 14, still ran on nicely for 3rd behind Nero. the latter came from a long way back though and was running on strongly, PT could go closer today but I will side with Nero again on that run... NERO x THERE IS A DREAM x PERFECT TRIP
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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Re: Re: Vaal Sand Thursday 3/7/14
10 years 11 months ago
Striker not riding bud. (How did I miss you saying that?? lol)
And I agree but I don't have the benefit of seeing how the track is running when doing my scrawls, I often mention the ones that do as you say so clanners know that was the case if they are not running on from the back today (or any other day for that matter). Tis always a concern and the more people trumpet for a consistent surface there and pre-report the likely condition, the better for all
-D
And I agree but I don't have the benefit of seeing how the track is running when doing my scrawls, I often mention the ones that do as you say so clanners know that was the case if they are not running on from the back today (or any other day for that matter). Tis always a concern and the more people trumpet for a consistent surface there and pre-report the likely condition, the better for all
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Re: Re: Vaal Sand Thursday 3/7/14
10 years 11 months ago
Another question for MR fundi's. Why would Perfect Trip in Race 8 go up 5 points for running 14,75 lengths behind Nigel Mansell in a MR race? He is now worse off with Nero who beat it. :
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