R1 For me not as obvious a race as it may first appear. Charanga may have a 3rd and a decent WR up but that 3rd on debut was in a particularly poor race won by an Erasmus 100/1 "improver". Not sure the form will hold up to much but worth noting that the jockey is 25% wins, 50% places for the stable in 20 runs. Balado has been running respectably and has an obvious chance, I am just not convinced he is improving in leaps and bounds. Not so far in front of Antonius Pius in his last two outings and with the distance between them less lto over this d despite Balado having the better draw of the two. It won't take a special debutant to win it but I'd rather go the (semi) idiot route and go completely the other way and take a chance with the two who have had more runs than any others! The Sanquharian will be making his 25th attempt to come out the maidens, but he is far from the world's worst maiden horse, indeed he has only been beaten once since his debut run by double figure lengths, not a bad record though of course not one connections will cherish! He has finished in silver or bronze in a third of his starts and is 0-2-4 in 18 c runs, 0-1-2 in 8 over c/d. He should not be too far off imo and if the price is right, worth a small e/w. He may end up as bridesmaid again though and it could be a sickening pill, beaten by the stablemate making his 48th attempt to come out of the maidens! Recourse may have been well behind Balado and AP lto at Turf but I think that may have been a poor run for this horse and I am prepared to take the chance and overlook it. Recourse has 2 silvers in 5 c/d runs, the second of which, under this WR, came in his penultimate run when, on debut, Balado was 5.75l adrift of him. Given that I have questioned the speed of Balado's progress that does seem quite a margin to have to make up. WR is 1-1-1 in 5 runs for the stable. In the hope that the price is worth the gamble, I'll stick with Recourse. In continuing the value approach, I'll go for a retirement fund boost with RECOURSE x THE SANQUHARIAN x ANTONIUS PIUS
R2 China Beach form is really nothing to shout about, is it? Price way too short for me and not that keen on any of those with experience in truth so suspect this will go to a debutant. Which one would be total guesswork.
R3 Hoping Shephard One not in need of the run as I think she can beat the fav. Ntombe for the trifecta.
R4 The lightly raced ones here don't eem to have the strongest of form but it could still be enough to have the race between them as those with the greater experience all seem to have even worse form! Likely the winner will come from Gettna, Raging Princess, Bad Dream, Tigress Poem or Loquacious. The latter gets Lerena up but was well beaten in a WR event on debut and she was many lengths behind Gettna. On some perhaps tenuous lines, Gettna appears to hold Bad Dream on recent runs. BD's form looks to have tailed off in her last couple of outings but she is potentially best drawn of these and a return to the straight course may suit her better. Striker retains the ride and on a line through Bang Sue it could be argued that she in turns holds Raging Princess. Unlike her rival though, the latter seems to have made some progress and for me is likely to me to finish infront of BD unless the latter fires back into life and she could prove good enough here. Tigress Poem brings some reasonable form from KZN which might prove good enough with trainer and jock in form. Difficult and might be one to watch the market but I'll chance... RAGING PRINCESS x GETTNA x TIGRESS POET
R5 Wide open handicap where a case can be made for pretty much the entire field. Bah under Striker makes plenty of appeal with the stable flying high currently and the horse having won both lto on the sand and here three runs back over 1400. Oriental Blue also high on my list of possibles. The drop in d is the main concern but the stable has been going well lately and it was a decent post maiden effort lto. If he can handle the drop in trip then he probably has most scope for improvement in the field. Indian Giant, overlooking the run lto, also merits a mention in the strongly considered list, best at the Vaal with a 4-2-1 record in 12 runs and though he has yet to place in 6 d runs, he has won over 1700 and it is no concern for me, worth a nibble at hopefully big odds. I could easily mention half a dozen more but to do a "wrap" lol, in the end I decided to go with the bottom weights with marginal preference for SJG's Chestnut Charger, under Marwing, who has been competitive consistently, though there is little to choose between him and Urgent Fury and Prince of Darkness.
R6 Would like to know if Striker definitely chose Malachite but despite that and the big weight, I'm going to stick with LG's VDH and brass Malachite (except for a Striker accumulator). Greasepaint and Jimmi Choo could be the closest challengers.
R7 Looks a two horse race to me with the only word of caution being the draw, if there is a big bias towards those drawn high then a shock might be in store. That aside, Last Battle looks sure to be competitive but I have a feeling he is better over the 1200 so I expect First Dance who has done little wrong in his brief career to date, has a good course record and the stable and jockey are in very decent form, to come out the better of the two. Golden Globe was disappointing first time out of the maidens having won on debut. He has been rested 14 weeks since and if fit could prove the right one for the trifecta. If GG needs it then Delighted, who was 2.75l off FD lto, could be the right one for the trifecta and will be my outsider if the early races indicate there is a big draw bias for the high berths.
R8 Although I think Danielle the most probable winner, she is no good thing imo and she is a very poor price so I will confine her to the Striker accumalator and look for value elsewhere. The one that could cause something of a surprise is Bold Flash, back on turf and up in d could see her running a big race. Matilda's Love could be competitive at decent odds, her c form is very respectable and the stable form has much improved since her last outing if memory serves me right. A return to form for Royal Cookie would not surprise me and Classy Looker will probably be thereabouts.
R9 Form from her maiden win looks to be quite strong so I'll side with Princess Tantan, Go Dutch likely to be right there. For me Devorah could be the one to cause a shock while Times Remembered is a nagger. Inventive Girl and Walking on Air also have claims and should not be far away.
Be(s)t of luck to all
Last edit: 10 years 9 months ago by Englander.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Bob Brogan, KitKat, Karma
Olive Leaf was taken down to Durban for the winter but after finishing distressed in a sprint she was rested and if over her problem will be a major contender.Houdalakis has two with similar ability and my choice of the two is Silver Class.
Expect improvement from the " older " three year olds.
Interesting contest
Karma wrote: Rose of castille, race 2... This horse will not get beaten... Take whatever price is on offer now.
Can you give us more input on this one Karma? I see its a R50k Right Approach filly, but nothing to really go on
Trainer jockey combo (are known for graft), they are a punting stable, and as long as they get their price, it's all systems go. I know they got their price, and they strong on the double with first dance in the 7th. More cannot be said, I just wanted to let the clanners know. As we know there is no certainties in this game, but info does sometimes help...
Karma,trainer comments on First Call and Peters says his best hope is First Dance ?
Karma wrote: Rose of castille, race 2... This horse will not get beaten... Take whatever price is on offer now.
Can you give us more input on this one Karma? I see its a R50k Right Approach filly, but nothing to really go on
Trainer jockey combo (are known for graft), they are a punting stable, and as long as they get their price, it's all systems go. I know they got their price, and they strong on the double with first dance in the 7th. More cannot be said, I just wanted to let the clanners know. As we know there is no certainties in this game, but info does sometimes help...
Karma,trainer comments on First Call and Peters says his best hope is First Dance ?
Yip, thus they strong on the double. Look, like I said there is no such thing as certainties, I am just passing on what I know..
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The following user(s) said Thank You: Richie77, colors
