Durbanville, 24/09

If i needed to recoup my losses in the 8th my bets would centre around the mares,but i would exclude Abbey Creek

so says the form and i see now that Karls on one of them who never shows anything after a break

www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgTrainerHi...?tr=S%20W%20Humby,ZA

my p6 for today

1,10,7,9
x,
7,8,1,3
x
5,8,10
x
3,9 5,4
x
4,7
x
4,5,11,12,6 50% R960.00

Twentymanjones would proably have been better served by sticking an appie up

Small e/w yankee...

R5 Hellzapoppin
R6 Prince of Magic
R7 Nonki Poo
R8 Rush For Roses

Be(s)t of luck to all

can,t trust durbanville.

Rush for Roses seems fair value at 7-1. Slightly better off with the Silvane Spring after finding trouble last time.

Some thoughts from the 'guest presenter':

According to the information from SA Horceracing, a tail wind is expected, so front runners probably a bigger advantage than normal; also lots been said about the draws, but according to the stats in Computaform, draws are not that big a factor?

R1: Goldandsilver and True Asset the obvious ones - but I think Hilaria represents the value as I think she will go to the front and should hold on for a place at least

R2: Even So looks hard to oppose in a weak field

R3: Roventas obvious chance on recent from, money for the first timer Big Freeze so must be included; value for me is Rebel House who should make the pace and could be hard to peg back

R4: Again the betting look spot on as the top 3 could fight it out - for me some value in Rouge Berry

R5: Stratocruiser really looks the part - In Tribute could get closer and I fancy Dogmatism to complete the trifecta

R6: Captain Bagg according to the betting is expected to follow up on his maiden win, but he could be beatable in my book; Olympian has run well at this track and should go close, and my value in the race is You Beauty - has won start to finish here 3 runs back and a repeat of those tactics could see her place at least

R7: Two competitive looking filles and mares handicaps to close; interesting betting support here for Nonki Poo, who has run well at Durbanville and also is coming down in the ratings - still I think one need to go wide here in the exotics - Can Cope is one that is a definite inclusion for me

R8: First choice for me is Rush for Roses from Silvane Spring - but many others (including Disney Queen, Abbey Creek Chrisaldame, Lucky Tuesday and Tiawana Tigress) not out of it.

Enjoy

PITY no other meeting locally today a double header on a public holiday would have been great

plenty of Money for big freeze

Shifts in betting:
Big Freeze in Race 3
Moment in Time Race 8

Place double
Hilaria
Ace Antonius
7/2

Some thoughts on the day:

R1 - I like Goldandsilver, although not necessarily straight forward trying blinkers and Durbanville. She did look in good nick when making her return and should come on from the run. Also has a good draw.

R2 - Even So the obvious choice but I'll probably stay out.

R3 - Both Roventas and Rebel House look suited to the c & d. I think Rebel House in particular will prefer the distance and gets a great draw. I'll play places given 3 unraced horses from useful stables.

R4 - Command Chi in form but yet to fire this course. I prefer Bandana Girl but will stay out.

R5 - Dogmatism no star but had excuses last time and gets a decent draw. Stratocruiser keeps winning while Ace Antonius needs to settle to show his best.

R6 - Olympian ideally c & d suited. Can be a bit awkward at the start which doesn't help as frontrunner but the 2 drawn inside of him aren't speedsters so can find himself in front or second. Not overly confident.

R7 - Nonki Poo will prefer this extra off a falling MR and place hopefully.

R8 - looks tricky.