The Vaal Thursday

New Guy wrote: Here are my selections - more for fun as I am no expert, so PLEASE don't take it too seriously!

R1- Miss Lecture to place ( 17/20)

R2- Fiesta De Espana win ( 15/10)

R4- Soviet Crackdown place (8/10)

Treble pays 7.28/1. Good luck to all of you - have a great day!

NG see the post above yours! lol re Fiesta

Some thoughts on the first few races. Latter races to follow. Hope my write up of what looks a fairly competitive card is of some help.

R2 With all due respect I don't think I've seen as weak a maiden contest in a while, the fact that fiesta was such a short favorite proves such. The first timer silver Donna does not have to be a star to win this encounter. Some value possibly at 4/1. Possible improver for me is Paradis from Erasmus yard. By Kahal and tries the blinkers. No form to recommend but only has 4th career start so at 4/1 a top 3 maybe not a bad shout.
SIlver Donna x Abelia x Paradis

R3 Hard to oppose Movie man as the price suggests. Absolutely no value there so I'd give this race a skip. For Pick 6 purposes I may include the likes of grantchester ( by Kahal and khumalo booked) and social lad with the booking of Lerena. In an ideal world I make the favorite a banker but I would like to be certain of getting through the first leg after being one of the mansour casualties on Tue.
Movie man x social lad x grantchester

R4 The way Ballerini won lto I don't think she will have problems going the extra furlong, well drawn has speed so should be able to use the draw. For me I think the value lies with Dawn day at some 25/1. Has had excuses for her last four runs and has since had a short break. I think she's really the spanner in the works with the inform Murray up has some nice e/w prospects. Of the Romeo Francis trio I prefer rainbow warbler, think she can improve to possibly run a place.
Dawn day x Ballerini x Rainbow warbler.

Latter races to follow

Bet of the day NERO in the 8th 4/1

Wilhelmina X Wellesley small e/w dbl.

Think they have taken a big chance dropping Arkansas 3 points big runner imo

R5 I've got healthy respect for rough justice and salute the sun however I think there's value to be had with the likes of my first selection Maji Moto and velvet Verona . In exotics I think this may even be a field race as one can make a case for any horse in the field. Interesting jockey bookings on the spies runners with VV possibly the stable elect. Crystals revenge is better over further but seems to hold serve on the weights but overall this seems a tricky contest. MM I think is coming back to his best and off such a low weight with an in form appie il take an e/w chance.
Maji Moto x Velvet Verona x Salute the sun/Rough Justice.

R6 one of the most competitive races on the card imo. I've been following limbo for ages waiting for him to get a draw over this trip. Has been terribly unlucky with draws and has still not disgraced from those wide barriers. Gets Gavin up and I make Limbo a huge runner and my one big bet of the day. Got on yesterday at 7/1 and 11/10 4 places and wouldn't surprise me if starts favorite. Of the other runners I agree with Bob that Arkansas is a massive runner with that low weight, decent draw and make him the biggest danger. All of 1,3,4 and 11 to be in the vicinity as well.
Limbo x Arkansas x Tora Tora

R7 As the betting suggests this is another wide open affair where one can make a case for pretty much all the runners. Like most my first selection will be spell bound with Stryker up. Jumpstart I feel will be in the vicinity but maybe the handicapper is starting to catch up with her. Escudo seems to have had her fair share of problems but generally when Tarry brings them back from a rest over a trip they normally are fit and well (I've seen tap tap makhatini for example win a few times after a lengthy absence.) therefore I feel Stryker and S'manga could fight this one out escudo from the front with spellbound trying to make up the ground.
Spellbound/escudo

R8 Potentially a tough end to the day. If Sundari was drawn better I'd have another bet but has work cut out from the draw and a hefty 5 pound increase in the MR so will choose to look elsewhere. Strydoms ride on Dakiwe makes some appeal as well as the undefeated on the surface Nero. On a line through smart mart Dakiwe strikes me as more likely then sundari D gave SM 0,5kg and was beaten by 4l. SM gave S 4 kg and beat S by 4l. D is now theoretically 3.5kg's to the good with S and is better drawn. Others to include: Taiwan treasure and maybe Mirak if jumping on terms for the places.
Dakiwe x Taiwan Treasure x Nero/Sundari.

Have a prosperous day gents.

Rainbow Warbler

Englander wrote:

New Guy wrote: Here are my selections - more for fun as I am no expert, so PLEASE don't take it too seriously!

R1- Miss Lecture to place ( 17/20)

R2- Fiesta De Espana win ( 15/10)

R4- Soviet Crackdown place (8/10)

Treble pays 7.28/1. Good luck to all of you - have a great day!

NG see the post above yours! lol re Fiesta

Thanks E! Back to the card then? LOL!

Going to be very brief cos it is a shocking card and anything could happen!

R1 Fav could win but for me worth opposing at the prices, my preference is for Miss Lecture with Tony The Rebel thereabouts.

R2 At least one of the market leaders will probably tick all the boxes where I currently have plenty ?s so I'll take my chances and brass them all, my trifecta (and it is a serious one lol)... Stay Far Away x Paradis x Clever Call

R3 Movie Man... much improved on the turf with the blinkers applied but does that necessarily mean the same will apply returning to the sand? Possibly, maybe even probably but, I really would consider myself an idiot having a go at the price... his only full sibling, She's A Looker is imo a better horse on the turf and in 6 sand runs the best she has managed is 5th twice, albeit in much better races and quite a few of the sand runs came when perhaps she was not in the best overall form. Anyway, will probably win by 20l but has, through my glasses, a huge "danger" sign hanging around his neck too! So, I'll take my chances tentatively with Roman Carnival who has a couple of fair sand performers amongst his half-siblings, exacta with Apsley.

R4 I agree with Col that Dawn Day has possibilities and is worth an e/w nibble in the hope she won't be reported as "not striding out" for the 5th consecutive outing. I am siding with Tullynally though who imo has a decent chance of taking to the surface and has put in some reasonable efforts during her career in KZN. Rainbow Warbler's 4th lto cost me a really decent accumulator and I will only forgive her for that if she makes up the trifecta here! lol

R5 I think punters should void this race with Anger out again. Has run dreadfully of late but you can't help have that nagging doubt over which day it will suddenly return to form with a nasty bang. Perhaps the price is not big enough yet? Not much confidence but... Sarve x Salute The Sun x Rough Justice

R6 I again agree with Col and make Limbo my strongest fancy of the day. Has a good c/d record which becomes 2 wins from 2 runs when drawn 4 or lower. The 1 box with Lerena up and he must be in with a very strong shout here. Not a foregone conclusion but I quite like him today. Arkansas was disappointing lto on this c but a repeat of his debut sand effort would give him a very decent chance, Son Of Approval was well behind him that day but this one also can't be discounted on the strength of his decent run lto when returning from a break. Both LG's horses have claims and if SJG's All I Want comes on for his debut win then he could be a real danger to all. Others have squeaks but that's enough!

R7 Had enough and this one's a pin job anyway lol... Belinsky x Spellbound x Jumpstart

R8 Sundari x Nero x Shepherd's Warning

I probably at least partially failed in the trying to be brief effort... I did try though, honest lol

Be(s)t of luck to all

R5- Captain Haddock place - 36/25

R6- Shepherd's Song place - 49/50

R7- 6x8 Nice swinger perhaps?

R8- Black Poseidon likes the course & distance. He's got 1 win and a place from 2 runs on this course and the same over this distance. At 20/1 I feel he's a nice e/w bet. Sundari and Wellesley and Longstride for the quartet.

Guys are right here. Limbo @6/1 e/w the best bet here by a mile imo. Won't miss 95/100 on a top 4.

For what it is worth, I think Wilhelmina in the 7th is the best bet. Liked the sand first time on the surface so could easily follow up. Further more I know it was a long time ago when she was still a maiden (16 October 2014) but she ran 2nd - 4.25L behind TAMANNEE and we all know how good TAMANNEE is so that must count for something. If she reproduce that run it is race over, she raced on the turf on the 30th April and finished 4.50L behind the winner which was the Stable mate and Stable jockey on the winner. Now she is back on the sand with stable jock on top? I took 15/2. Spellbound is fav and is a 1 time winner carrying 57.50Kg Wilhelmina is a 2 time winner carrying 54? Escudo 2nd fav - 2 time winner carrying 62Kg? Jumpstart 3rd fav - 2 time winner with the same number of starts as Wilhelmina - carrying 61Kg. Hopefully some of it make sense. Now that said, it will probably run stone last.