Scottsville 23/5/15

Can someone explain the money for Seventh plain to me? Not as good as buckinghamshire who hasn't set the highveld alight to say the least and beat a pretty average field last time all things considered. You have two highly rated horses taking their place here, one Zaki has said is special and the De Kock runner who's made his stable mates run in another race which says a hell of a lot imo. The more I think about it, the more I think Muwaary must be the right one. De Kock would've put Entisaar or Shaama in this race if he though Muwaary couldn't win it for him. I think Redcarpet captain will comfortably see off Seventh Plain tomorrow, doesn't make my top 3.

The fact is there is usually a draw bias at Scottsville. If you can wait and see tomorrow then my strong advice would be to do so before having your main bet, unless you are worried the price will go. You either have to have good gate speed and get across early and hope you have not used up too much doing so or, you have to tuck in and hope you can find a way through what will be big fields. You are imho taking a big gamble if you like one drawn on the outside but those gambles obviously sometimes pay off, just depends how good you think the horse is and, if necessary, how much luck they get in running. I nearly always rather play low and if I don't think it is necessarily the best horse, go e/w.

If you choose to go high, Clint has a little advice for you...
you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk? lol

Englander wrote: The fact is there is usually a draw bias at Scottsville. If you can wait and see tomorrow then my strong advice would be to do so before having your main bet, unless you are worried the price will go. You either have to have good gate speed and get across early and hope you have not used up too much doing so or, you have to tuck in and hope you can find a way through what will be big fields. You are imho taking a big gamble if you like one drawn on the outside but those gambles obviously sometimes pay off, just depends how good you think the horse is and, if necessary, how much luck they get in running. I nearly always rather play low and if I don't think it is necessarily the best horse, go e/w.

If you choose to go high, Clint has a little advice for you...
you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk? lol

I've only taken jet belle as I said early because it's my one fancy with a good draw and will see how the 4th race runs before laying money but is the draw the only reason royal pleasure is being fancied on here? :silly:

Mac wrote: But I make BALTIC AMBER an absolute napping blinder in the last

Should win even if blindfolded

To be honest TML, and sorry but not in the mood to go looking again for all the reasons, at 12s RP is my e/w shout pre-racing, the draw no doubt played a big part in that decision. That said, imo not the best horse in the race and, besides that, as with all races on a day like this, plenty shocks often happen. Will be A small bill that is invested.

Sealegs wrote: Some Stats for the 4 sprint races over the last 5 years, regarding the Winners only. ie. 20 races.

1. 90% of these 20 races have been won by horses Drawn 1-9.(2-6 being the most frequent)
2. the 2YO boys race and the Tsogo sun (gilbeys) races have the highest priced winners, on average.
3. The Fillies Sprint has the shortest priced winners, on average.
4. Of these 20 races, JHB trainers have won only 4 .

Some great stats there Sealegs and after breaking it down a little I was amazed at what I discovered, for those that are interested and if history repeats itself then some absolute guarantees tomorrow and at prices too...

Please remember that the below is purely statistically based and should NOT be used as a betting guide, lol!

Last 5 years only...

RACE 5 HISTORY - Lowest draw winner (1) Princess Victoria (G Kotzen) Andrew Fortune *** Highest draw winner (14) Chocolicious (H Brown) Johnny Geroudis *** Comparing tomorrows card, the top factors according to draw, jockey, trainer combinations boil down to DRAW 4 X MARCUS X KOTZEN which points directly to ROYAL PLEASURE, however no same draw, jockey has more than one winner in each category with exception of V MARSHALL in 2013 on HAPPY VALENTINE and 2012 on ALL IS SECRET. Make of it what you want but those are the statistics.

RACE 6 HISTORY - Lowest Draw winner (2) Delago Deluxe (C Laird) Anton Marcus *** Highest draw winner (11) Link Man (D Drier) Alec Forbes *** Comparing tomorrows card, the top factors according to draw, jockey, trainer combinations boil down to DRAW 4 X MARCUS X DRIER which points directly to SEVENTH PLAIN, interestingly D Drier has won this race four times in the last five years and the last three consecutive years, even number draws favored the last four years 2,4,8 and 6 respectively so once again you make up your mind.

RACE 7 HISTORY - Lowest draw winner (1) Via Africa (D Howells) K Shea *** Highest draw winner (9) shared between Ebony Flyer and Captain's Gal (J Snaith and S Tarry) B Fayd'Herbe and P Strydom *** Strangely D Howells who won it in 2014 and 2015 with Via Africa doesn't have a runner neither do the jockeys aboard A Forbes and K Shea have a ride. After comparison, the only common factors are draw and trainer and that is draw 3 and Sean Tarry which leaves us with CARRY ON ALICE, phew... dunno hey :ohmy: Let's see!

RACE 8 HISTORY - Lowest draw winner (3) Delago Deluxe (C Laird) A Marcus *** Highest draw winner (6) J J The Jet Plane (M Houdalakis) P Strydom *** Another strange array of comparisons but after much breaking down and building up and excluding the potential reserve runners I came up with this... Draw 3 and 5, Jockeys P Strydom and A Mgudlwa, yep that's right last years winner on NORMANZ, good chap he is, So without further delay I present Mr. Eudey's FLYFIRSTCLASS and Mr. Tarry's WILLOW MAGIC, dead heat for double JACKPOT :woohoo:

Could have added a whole bunch more info but I'd be here all night. Don't leave the above out of your exotics

Wagered a small double ROYAL PLEASURE x SEVENTH PLAIN :whistle:

Winning_Post wrote: Wagered a small double ROYAL PLEASURE x SEVENTH PLAIN :whistle:

Using past stats and disregarding form, class, natural ability, talk and replays, you are the last person on here who I thought would do this :lol: If this comes through i will pm you a long apology letter on the value of past stats over all else but I think you've gone bonkers after cleaning up at Greyville :lol:

On a line through real princess..i make just lucky a huge runner..sabaha did beat her over 1200 at greyville but on just lucky's last run she should be a hard horse to beat in my opinion.

Carry On Alice is absolutely lethal over 1100-1200m.. Won 3 of the 5 starts, going down in the other two by less than half a length.. I can't look past her, get ready for the Bling pose..

Buckinghamshire was absolutely cruising but found nothing extra when asked, the ground found her out in both runs at Big T, she never quickened, surprising coz in both runs in the cape she hit the line hard and found plenty.. I still make that a strong form line, seventh plain will be right there..

Gilz17 wrote: Buckinghamshire was absolutely cruising but found nothing extra when asked, the ground found her out in both runs at Big T, she never quickened, surprising coz in both runs in the cape she hit the line hard and found plenty.. I still make that a strong form line, seventh plain will be right there..[/quote

Im 100% sure Buckinghamshire is He not a She