R1 Buddy's Falcon peak run and from an ideal draw over an ideal distance must be the one to beat.Good sprint last and will not lack early toe
Maroun / Strydom
R2 Prince Of Orange looks a division higher then these and should win
Regarding Buddy's Falcon, surely a horse that has run 62 times and still a maiden doesn't have the heart to win. The Bookies must love this horse, especially when the money is coming in like today, shortened into 9/2 now. Tread carefully if you backing this horse, maybe swingers with love tryst and she's a flirt to cover.
100% correct but I'm looking at Spies's horse and they have gone for a claimer and perhaps its to counter any claims Buddy has
so that might be the correct form?
Hotash wrote: Regarding Buddy's Falcon, surely a horse that has run 62 times and still a maiden doesn't have the heart to win. The Bookies must love this horse, especially when the money is coming in like today, shortened into 9/2 now. Tread carefully if you backing this horse, maybe swingers with love tryst and she's a flirt to cover.
professional maiden
Just going for the striker factor should bring some improvement to this pony
We'll just have to wait and see how that speedy gonvarles formline goes, as you said the strydom factor may help the horse. I see the 2nd horse Saraaba came out and ran 2nd again in a workriders, so not much to go by. Maybe trifectas and quartets with 1,2,3,4,6,10,11 maybe the play.
R1 Just A Flirt has an obvious chance but the wide draw is an equally obvious concern and on lines thru Seattle Trade not much between her, Buddy's Falcon, Mystify Me and Love Tryst. My preference is for MM who was somewhat awkwardly away on debut but came through most of the field to get within 0.4l of Buddys's Falcon. The latter is known to go on from the 1000, plus has the massive boost of Striker being up, and there has to be a question as to whether MM will be able to do the same but given that was her debut, the awkward start and that the WR had a fair amount of experience on BF, I'll chance MM... Mystify Me x Buddy's Falcon x Love Tryst.
R2 Prince of Orange had a mouth injury when last here and won his only previous sand run, albeit a maiden. Hard to believe Marcus would come for just one ride without their being huge confidence. Like Frodo, all being equal, I prefer Ahlaam and I will have R1 on All The Bids. But, the weight of "circumstances" makes me think PoO is the one to be with (possible Azzie double with Roving Jet in the 5th as this one has come in for some strong support this morning).
R3 All being fair in love and war, Pride In Battle is a confident selection. Susquehanna for the exacta. 5 cents on Skyress.
R4 As mentioned earlier, Embrasiatic looks to have very strong claims but there are concerns. I agree with Frodo in that Arabian Arrow is likely to take to the sand and could be some e/w value from the 1 box. Of those with c experience, Cristal Arrow looks the value to me, on 3rd run after a rest and last two were against stronger, hefty weight though. Embrasiatic x AA x CA
R5 Another where it is hard to have a strong fancy. The support for Roving Jet noted though and his only previous run here may have been too far. Pera Hur gets Striker but a tough draw. Blue Blazer to be right there if overcoming the draw. R1 on Masden. The small e/w value though could be the sand debutant De La Vere who has a chance of taking to the sand and has a decent draw. DLV x BB x RJ
R6 Battle Of Alma for me. Wishful Heart to challenge strongly and watch out for Gems A Plenty who could be a major player with the stable back in some form. BoA x GAP x WH
R7 Plenty "ifs" in this one so many with a chance and very few discounted. Not going through them but my small e/w choice would be Star Empress, decent come back run and hopefully come on for it. R1 Lavender Girl.
R8 Commodore Al x Lord Windsor
Be(s)t of luck to all
Last edit: 10 years 4 days ago by Englander.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Bob Brogan, oscar
I think wishful heart in race 6 is also a big runnner, 4L behind doing it for dan should be enough to beat this field. Also runs for Striker, any comment from the Goosen stable?
I guess we should be grateful that race 2 is not part of J'pot or P6.
Another one of those races that confuse. Although it is a plate race,actual ratings indicate runners chances.
As Prince of Orange has had only 2 runs on sand ,he runs off his turf rating of 95 !
His highest sand run was 82,but that was a long time ago and he obviously could now be equal or better,on sand.........but who knows?...is he well or badly handicapped??
Normally I would ignore till proven but Marcus going to the Vaal for the 1 ride speaks volumes I think ???????(the problem is ,even if he cancelled ,the fact that he accepted the ride at all would be significant!)
Interesting race to say the least.
im only assuming here as we don't have press in Gauteng who can actually pick up a telephone and ask or actually go to randjies and ask mr azzie but I think Marcus has taken the ride on prince of orange to get a feel of him on the surface with the option of riding him should he meet expectations in the big million rand sand race at the end of September..once again im only assuming this
One thing I noticed last week. The first few winners up until the last two were straight from the front, could be coincidence then that last two came from off them. If that happens again today then I make woody's horse in the last the one to beat.
R2 agree it's very tricky. Between all the bids and lavender landscape a blistering pace is expected which may play into the likes of guy from Dubai or Killua castle for a late run.
R3 Agree with others sentiments that pride in battle should win and some value at 16/10. Only other I'm gonna include is sweet on you, doesn't have the worst form in my eyes and could be of some value in at least swingers or places.
R4 one of the toughest if not the toughest on the card. Worried about the fav for above mentioned reasons will include all of CA BD and CE with AA who is likely to take to the sand.
R5 Another tricky race, backed pera hur the last couple times but think 1200 suits better. All of 1,3,4,6&9 for me. Don't ask about the 6. Long time maiden but again form in some runs isn't completely uninspiring and at 50s.
R6 Bright number four the real value imo, agree big danger battle of Alma. 2,3,5,9 to complete the quartet.
R7 All of 1,2,3,9 obvious chances for me the value is with Ice goddess.
R8 As stated lord Windsor for me.
Not a card where I fancy anything strongly so just some small bets for me.
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