Englander wrote: Bad bad news Tim, sorry to hear it man, do your best to keep spirits up and hope things "calm" soon.
GB, fair enough double imo, both (as they all are) are tough races, make Motoman the better chance of the two but either/both could win imo.
Guys, I scrawled this last night, some of the prices have obviously changed since, so I may put R2 down rather than R1 on a couple of them lol. Really competitive so would be no huge surprise if a zero return!
R1 Fort Kalimenta possibly improved on the turf lto but, when compared to some others who also competed in both races, the form of that race is not so different to that of his only effort on the Fairview poly 2 runs back. Although he stumbled at around the 1400 mark, I am not sure from the replay it made a lot of difference. Based on that, I would rather go with the form of the Spekbom race and stick with Time Share who showed a lot of improvement over the longer distance.
R2 On some lines could be a tight finish, at the weights I'll side with Motoman. R1 e/w on Dandyman Can, last 2 coming back from a rest were too short, 3 runs back over this c/d was under 1l behind Rocket Rider and is now 1kg better off but does go from a wider draw.
R3 Another where the form indicates it could be a close finish with plenty holding claims. Two potential with some e/w value imo are Ogygia who now gets the 4kg appie claim and has a better draw than when only 1l behind Oyster Nut lto and secondly Bergfrue who has only 1l to find with Joy Of Hope from his last poly run and goes from draw 11 to 1.
R4 Tight. Slightest of the most marginal preferences for Soleil Royal. Expecting Sanfoneiro, Imperial Velvet and Romeo Bravo to be thereabouts.
R5 Case can be made for plenty and a race with a lot of ifs. Crackpot respected but too short imo, three runs back was beaten just over 2l by Lucky Lear, the former is 1.5kgs better off and drawn much lower here but 2/1 against 8/1 doesn't feel right to me. I'll stick to an R1 e/w on Midnight Magenta. Drawn wide in last two (and reportedly lame lto) but prior to that was 3.1l back of Lucky Lear (winner Rose And Crown). Three factors make me think he is worth chancing despite that defeat... he retains a low draw whereas LL goes from 2 to 14, MM was returning from a 14 week break and MM is no less than 11kgs better off.
R6 Tight. My marginal preference was for Covariance from Tour Le Var with Happy Lion a nagger but plenty have a chance and few discounted. (But, noted this morning that...) Bremner has taken the blinkers off Eternal Jet and that makes a huge difference to that one's chances imo, some pretty decent form in KZN on the poly. Draw to overcome but fair e/w value for me. Music App R2 given that he was under 1l behind Covariance two runs back and is 5kgs better off here. Covariance though moves from box 10 to box 1. Eternal Jet x Covariance x TLV
R7 On their respective runs to Alyssia's Prize, I'm not sure why Queen's Jet should be 3x the price of Sapphire Gem and the stable is always so helpful and transparent... :whistle: My e/w preference though is for Shake And Bake, forgive the last run and has a huge swing in the weights with Dream to Reality, on lines through that one SnB would hold others at these weights but will have to overcome a wide draw. Blackberry Wine is new to the Sham yard and comes off a 14 week break. recent form looks uninspiring but possibly worth noting last few runs have been... drawn wrong side at Vaal, sand, very soft. Prior to that won, chancing R1. Stablemate Arabica also worth R1, rest might bring about a return to form from a good draw.
R8 Cruzcampo an obvious chance despite coming out the maidens but not much of a price imo and possibly some e/w value around again. 3 in order of preference... Sir Swarovski was the one at the biggest price that interested me most, lto was probably too far and run before that over c/d saw him grab 2nd and possibly herald a return to form, drawn 2, low weight. Black Platinum is better than his last run imo and also has a low draw and light weight, worth considering on prior form. Diamond Diva, usually not too far off and although drawn 16 he has been beaten by only 2l and 3.15l in his two c/d efforts and they were from draws 14 and 13.
Be(s)t of luck to all
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Good to see you posting again
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