PA sounds good.Caught a PA once by just selecting top jocks in each leg.It was a big raceday and big fields like Saturday and was surprised,thought I caught the P6.
Two horses whom I feel, if they run to their ratings, will go close to winning :-
R5) Joan Ranger (MR 98), on the drift 3/1 out to 33/10, in light of the massive betting support for Negroamaro (MR 87), 7/1 into 28/10. Based on the support, no argument as to who should win, however based on their merit ratings Joan Ranger should be conceding quite a bit of weight to Negroamaro, yet the race conditions dictate they carry level weights. The question is whether Negroamaro has improved in excess of 5.00 lengths, and Joan Ranger has made no improvement since their last meeting? Joan Ranger for me.
R10) Silver Scooter likewise, if he runs close to his rating of 93, he will beat this field. I make Kingmambo's Legacy the danger.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
R1 Money for Emblem King with Lerena up, trainer landed a coup a short while back with Tommy Waterdevil, who was also entered for this one. I would side though with Marcus on Nawab, has won 5 of his last 6 rides for Soma.
1st - sit back, enjoy the race and wait for the real action
2nd - also nothing to get overly committed in, Matilda's daughter as well as Lilly Love look value but will need to beat São Paulo who looks progressive on first appearance and breeding
3rd - First decent race on the card and it will be interesting! Kwinta will be up there early and force the pace but if something goes with her (Perfumed Lady) it could be a one way ticket to an empty last 100m which would bring the classy Winter Star into things. I expect the track to be running lightning fast though and Kwinta gets the vote! Shepard One and Jo Malone to add value for exotics.
1st - Kwinta 2nd - Winter Star 3rd - Shepard One
4th - Merchants has a very similar scenario to the first as Arabian Beat will be the bullet out the gates with Brutal Force and Trip to Heaven the likely finishers. I do like a horse at a price though and Sheik's Brashee looks to be a love wire. A prep run at the big T under the belt for the Durban raider, cherry ripe and if he brings his best, 40/1 is a serious play.
1st - Arabian Beat 2nd - Sheik's Brashee 3rd - Brutal Force
5th - Negroamaro! Bumped at the start from a bad draw lto and needed the run. Better draw and fitter for this run, big improvement should be seen and I'm expecting a victory. Danger is obvious in Joan Ranger, but all of Ntoma, Juxtapose, Intergalactic and Sapsan could be involved for places.
1st - Negroamaro 2nd - Joan Ranger 3rd - Juxtapose
6th - Abashiri is all the rage and if he brings his form to the table then it's race over. BUT... This is the Dingaans and with fresh memories of last years 40/1 winner (Unparalleled) I'm taking him on. Main play, Rikitikitana ew @ 33s. Blinkers on, Smanga riding and this horse can finish! New Predator has scope as does Jubilee Line and we will see if Bull Valley stays.
1st - Rikitikitana 2nd - Abashiri 3rd - Jubilee Line
7th - The big one! Summer Cup.
French Navy - All class, good prep run and should be up there. Loves this track and will be doing his best late.
Power King - July winner that has ability, but don't think the track will suit.
Flying the Flag - hasn't set the world alight since arriving and looks on a stiff mark
Judicial - not in this caliber, would need buckets of rain
Master Sabina - 3rd in this 2 years ago and looks like the Woodruff stable is making noise about this hard knockers chances. He will be spot on for tomorrow as the stable has dominated this race in recent years and he will be in the top 3.
Halve the deficit - capable of placing but nothing more
Yer Maan - on best form he can run a place
Mac De Lago - given a better draw I would have fancied this horse to go close but with the draw to contend with he will have too much to do too late as his gate speed isn't the best around.
Easy Lover - Van Vuuren's expensive new toy. Came flying late on lto and is capable of placing. Better horses in this though.
Deo Juvente - easy winner in the victory moon but was given a peach by Callan Murray. Not out of it but has another bad draw to deal with and this time it doesn't look as easy.
ML Jet - in form and his last runs have been full of merit but he has not lived up to early hype and would do well to win here. Not impossible.
Ultimate Dollar - drawn in the car park and according to Strydom he would rather leave the horse in the box. Not for me from the draw.
Disco Al - closely matched with St Tropez and will absolutely love the outside track! Quotes of 25/1 are just crazy and should be snapped up.
Dynamic - since his burst of 3 on the trot, the handicapper as well as some terrible draws have ensure a halt in his progress. I'm expecting a big one from the draw though and he could place.
Diesel Jet - we know exactly what's going to happen here... Jump and go and then try go and go again. Not sure these tactics will win you a Summer Cup and I'm opposing.
St Tropez - Yes Marcus is going to look unhealthy while riding this as he will be itching to eat something as soon as he gets off the horse. All the hype about the horse must be good for him to sweat down is a bit much for me. Yes he has claims, but he has been a general disappointment in his racing career so far and will need to prove he is truly top class and go on from his last run. Might be too soon for him... Skip
The Captains Tune - needs great improvement to get involved.
Ahlaam - Front runner that may be able to skip the field. Not disgraced behind Deo Juvente last time and may provide the shock.
The Centenary - nice low weight but would need luck to get involved in the finish. Outclassed.
Platinum Jet - Tries his heart out but would need to step up to land the prize here.
1st - Master Sabina 2nd - Disco Al 3rd - French Navy
8th - With the scratching of Featherfoot, it looks a two horse race. Bichette beat smart call comfortably last time and I'll take her to confirm the progress as I put her up as one to follow this season.
1st - Bichette 2nd - Smart Call 3rd - Love To Sail
9th - The dreaded stayers race... Almost everything has a chance in these races but I like horses that have been the distance before. Storm Warning stays the trip and will be fresh and ready as will his stable mate Shimmering Gem. But the horse I like is Jay's outsider. He has won over the 3200m before and will be my play in a very open race. Others to consider are Cool Chardonay and the Woodruff pair of Wild Ash and Arch Rival.
10th - I'm going with Finchatton here. Last time out he got caught on the line but that can be put down to him carrying top weight of 62kgs. He is an absolute battler and terms look to be in his favor. 2 starts back he finished just behind Silver Scooter but had a wide draw and raced with no cover and was off the bit a long way from home but still plugged in and battled for 3rd. Front Rank is a decent horse and can follow Finchatton home.
11th - Thrust looks a banker in this field and his main danger could be from the returning Algueda. Mr Laird knows how to bring a horse back and if this horse is fit enough then he is the value. Isca is coming back to a sprint trip and should be seen to best effect here.
1st - Thrust 2nd - Algueda 3rd - Isca
12th - Save the Rhino looks to have the measure of his rivals here. He ran a cracker LTO under the lights as he fetched Dingaans hopeful (Jubilee Line) to get up and win. He finishes powerfully and it will take something to go with him. Samurai Blade is an improving 3yo but this may be a bit soon for the horse after a disappointing run LTO. The Big Easy could be the value as he is lightly raced and tried the trip. Seize the Throne will enjoy the step back up in distance and can be a player with the mercurial Strydom aboard.
1st - Save a the Rhino 2nd - Big Easy 3rd - Seize The Throne
Last edit: 9 years 6 months ago by TSants18.
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