Race 5, if you can, include Royal Life (8/1). I see most of the money and talk is for Mountain Master (3/1 into 18/10), however it's been a long time between celebratory drinks for this horse, 659 days and counting. Whilst he is taking on weaker than he faced in his last 7 or more runs, the opposition are certainly not without a chance and honestly have more scope for improvement than Mountain Master. Does he deserve to be top of the betting boards?, on exposed form, yes, is his winning a foregone conclusion, no.
The second favourite, Never Settle (33/10), is the improver and the key for me. There is a 7.5kg swing in the weight for a 4.15 beating between Never Settle and Royal Life. Royal Life had valid excuses (for me), it was his second run after the rest, and he was found to be coughing. He was actually fancied that day, so I would put a line through that run. It should be remembered that he won his maiden over the course and distance by 6.50 lengths and either something went wrong or he was put away for over a year.
If you make Never Settle a 33/10 shot, and he should not finish ahead of Royal Life, then the value does lie with Royal Life. Third run after the rest, this horse is weighted to just about win.
Played the double with Seventh Plain, he has run to class and is well weighted. Don't be put off by the jockey booking, in that Marcus is riding Guiness. De Melo does look like the stable jockey on the day having three mounts for the Drier yard, compared to Marcus who has one.
Play well.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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Horse Guards looks a very very smart sort. Will be interesting to know how much further he ran being drawn on the outside and finished up on the inside, the runner up being flattered by the winning margin.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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