Kenilworth & Turffontein Saturday 9/7/16

heavenly Blue x Tommy Waterdevil x Tandana

18/1

Race 7: We have Sun at Midnight running. I assumed she would be suited to a mile, but my trainer has convinced me that she is a sprinter ( like her dam). She ran a nice race last time, and has a winning chance today. Quine could be anything after a good debut win. Quite a few with chances in this one.
Race 8: An interesting contest between the 2yos and the older horses. Glorious Goodwood looks the best of the younger set, and is the outright selection. Logan looks useful, but Van Niekerk is on the first timer, Come on Sonny which is owned by his sponsor. New Caledonia brings good Gauteng form, but may need this run. Rock on Geordies comes back to the sprints, but has been disappointing. Finn's Rebel, Marvan and Quarllo could improve on fair debuts.

preshen0406 wrote: Hi Bob.did beat absolutely nothing by 0.35 lengths...blocked around 5x last 300m...lotus elan should've won by 10lengths+.....made up ground last 50m like an ill-fated concorde

I know times cannot be always used at face value but Lotus Elan's win time was 2 seconds slower the Outshine's average from last 3 runs over the 1160m. Therefore, Outshine running to his average time would have finished 10 lenghts in front. Just an example, not saying back Outshine. Just my 2 cents

Turffies:
Race2: Safe Harbour
Race 4: Sail for Joy
Race 6: Elusive Flyer
Race 8: Tandana

BiggySmall wrote:

preshen0406 wrote: Hi Bob.did beat absolutely nothing by 0.35 lengths...blocked around 5x last 300m...lotus elan should've won by 10lengths+.....made up ground last 50m like an ill-fated concorde

I know times cannot be always used at face value but Lotus Elan's win time was 2 seconds slower the Outshine's average from last 3 runs over the 1160m. Therefore, Outshine running to his average time would have finished 10 lenghts in front. Just an example, not saying back Outshine. Just my 2 cents

Lotus Elan must be quite highly thought of ...was nominated for the 2yr old feature on July day!....must be a good e/w bet

Imperial dancer and waiting for rain double

Big T

R1 Seventh Apostle e/w
R4 Sail For Joy w
R5 Pivotal Pursuit w
R6 Coby e/w
R7 Captainofmyheart e/w
r9 Blue Light Convoy e/w

Back to bread and butter racing - and hopefully a change of fortune for me :huh:

R1: Amber Flash showed good speed over the 1160 - should really doddle this if the work rider can stay aboard - much too short at evens though imo (but I did include him in my multiple at 18/10) - Wanted Man does not have to be anything special to give AF a go - Seventh Apostle, Vargo and Afgas best of the rest

R2: Safe Harbour another who looks hard to beat after almost holding Santiburi off last time - did finish in front of Open Road who did take her place in the Golden Slipper last week - but SF also too short at odds-on imo; Shebang a definite danger imo; Oh My Darling gets a weight advantage and Brave Queen not that far behind Group placed Myfunnyvalentine - more open than first appears imo

R3: Heavenly Blue all the rage after a good debut win - not sure about the quality of the field though and is another that for me is no value at odds-on; as pointed out by others, Lotus Elan was very impressive in his maiden win and there is not a lot between Chili Con Carne and Outshine on their runs behind Cloth of Cloud, so at 10's the value here is Outshine

R4: Not the strongest of maidens imo; Sail for Joy looked all over a winner last time and did beat West Rand easily in the run behind Le Tigre; Just a Gigolo has had many chances and the rest look very moderate; so SfJ definitely needs to be considered as a banker in the PS imo

R5: Pinnacle Stakes but not cut and dried by any means; in fact not too many without a chance imo; from a PA point of view Pivotal Pursuit should not miss the first 3, but for the P6 I'd go wide - both Easy Lover and especially Tiger's Retreat have come plummeting down in the ratings and both could be much better in here than would appear at first glance

R6: Another Pinnacle over ground this time and this does look much less competitive; Coby best in on official ratings, but the 2450 may just be a touch beyond her optimal trip; not a lot between Fortune Fella and Elusive Flyer , but FF has the Striker advantage; High Drama always running on, so if he does get the extra ground, he will probably be tough to beat - those 4 stand out

R7: Back to the handicaps, but looking at the form, I think Tommy Waterdevil must have a huge chance; has Last Battle well held and there is not a lot between LB and Captainofmyheart (who may have improvement to come though); Scar Tissue an interesting runner at the weights, but according the Azzie jnr will need the run after a very long injury enforced break - I'd still not exclude him from the places along with Reef of Fortune

R8: Many younger fillies take on their elders - Tandana looks a worthy favorite courtesy of her 2nd behind Last Chirp - however Pool Party (just a neck behind T could only finish 2nd next time out) so the form not as good as it would first appear; Lily Love did beat Artemesia by 4 lengths who in turn came out to win beating Gabby's Jet by 4 lengths; so I'm backing up Tandana with Lily Love

R9: Load up and watch the rugby

Enjoy

Turf 1 - Weak field and a roughie that could improve is Prince of Savoy. Last 2 starts against winners and might place at a big price.

Good one Tim

TURFFONTEIN-3-PA-3,2,WT,11,WT,1,3,5,WT,1,5,WT,3,8,WT,1,16,WT,4,7,10-1+0.00%-Cost:144.00

my PA

other than that small trebles including this:

Craig Pienaar wrote: Treble for weekend
Tvl Race 2: Safe Harbour
Tvl Race 3: Heavenly Blue
Cape race 3: Imperial Dancer

I nearly put 1k on this , 1000/13000 it was paying last night. but going big on trebles hasn't been working out for me as of late. but my biggest trebles have been at turffies, i will prob regret not pulling the trigger on the big bet.

tryna keep my bet sizes consistent though...

Turf 3 - exacta 2 by 1