Fortune will never ride for Goosen Yard again

Craig Pienaar wrote: Just a really daft question , if TT had a hoof problem , why was it in the race?

rob faux wrote: The one thing that that is being missed in this debate is that,much to some's dismay ,the arithmetic is still, consistently(but not infallibly) the most accurate guide.
Doing it for Dan did not win because it improved (according to the arithmetic) but because Trip Tease ran below its ability,which was explained by Louis and the hoof problem!
So anybody who found DifD as a good thing, pre-race ,either knew that Triptease was not at best ,or was guessing!

Craig Pienaar wrote: Just a really daft question , if TT had a hoof problem , why was it in the race?

Magi wrote:

rob faux wrote: The one thing that that is being missed in this debate is that,much to some's dismay ,the arithmetic is still, consistently(but not infallibly) the most accurate guide.
Doing it for Dan did not win because it improved (according to the arithmetic) but because Trip Tease ran below its ability,which was explained by Louis and the hoof problem!
So anybody who found DifD as a good thing, pre-race ,either knew that Triptease was not at best ,or was guessing!

What arithmetic Rob? Subjective merit Rating?

johnnycomelately wrote: I guessed a good double yesterday
Penteliko and King of the Corn :lol:

So guessing is good...sometimes

rob faux wrote:

Magi wrote:

rob faux wrote: The one thing that that is being missed in this debate is that,much to some's dismay ,the arithmetic is still, consistently(but not infallibly) the most accurate guide.
Doing it for Dan did not win because it improved (according to the arithmetic) but because Trip Tease ran below its ability,which was explained by Louis and the hoof problem!
So anybody who found DifD as a good thing, pre-race ,either knew that Triptease was not at best ,or was guessing!

What arithmetic Rob? Subjective merit Rating?

Not at all ..I do my own arithmetic,unfettered by rules,and which are not quite as subjective as your suggestion you can achieve a 20-30% strike rate using the guess system

heinrich wrote: Went and looked for my notes on that race now...so let me try and HELP those who didn't even give DIFD the slightest of chances...Allow me to be an 'after the race merchant'

When it comes to 'finding winners' I 1st determine WHAT FACTORS WILL DETERMINE the outcome of the races today!I'm sure everybody does this to an certain extent,some less than others!

2 FACTORS I rate above all...

1)
First on the agenda is the Pen reading,track condition and WIND!!! Once this is established I know to a certain degree FROM WHERE horses will win today!!!

2)
We all have heard the saying...'PACE MAKES THE RACE'. In combination with the above,these 2 factors can be used with much success to determine from a where the horses will win on any given day/track!!!!

In that race...

MOD BARLEY/GREASEPAINT/VIKING HERO can all be considered FRONTRUNNERS based on recent runs...

TRIP TEASE and VICTORIOUS are 'UP WITH THE PACE NAGS'...horses who likes to sit 1-2 lengths off the pace!

DOING IT FOR DAN was the only BACKMARKER in the race.

With a Decent headwind blowing on the day and the Pen reading the way it was I determined that horses will win from midfield today! This race was always gonna be a 'HOT' run race with those 3 Cars in there...Anybody who is serious abt punting knows ...

Good/Fast pace + Head wind = Horses stopping and winners coming from behind!!!!

Barring DIFDs last 3 runs where there were excuses...his runs before that...in BiG fields where conditions DIDNT suite(where there was tailwinds blowing and horses were winning from the front those were credible runs,running on well ). On this certain day...everything was in his favour...Aswell as getting aboard a jock who is a SIT and POUNCE MASTER!!!!
To be honest...I had TT as my 1st selection(due to the fact that I always try and tip a straight line PA in my selections) but DIFD was my 2nd pick and I did tell the gang to have an EW on at what I thought was a crazy price!!!!!

1 more thing...about DIFDs recent 'bad' form before that...horses run their best races at CERTAIN TIMES DURING their 'current cycle' ...Example: some horses love to win 1st run after a rest...some love to win 3rd run after a rest! DIFD had his 8th run after a rest..and the only other time that happened he WON!!! TRIP TEASE had his 4th run after a rest...happened 2* before that and both times he won...hence me making him a PA banker and my 1st pick! If it wasn't for the Tongue Tie issue...I would've been much more confident in DIFD than I was. So before people talk abt guessing and bitching abt this and that...DO YOUR HOMEWORK correctly...it makes it so much more easier! I can make a similar cases for CIGAR BOY and LE CLOS yesterday..although they didn't win,they ran cracking races!!! SMALL FIELDS normally are an 'easy' race to SPOT SOME VALUE!!!

Now,before you crucify me and tell me abt the amount of kak I'm talking,ect ect...let me say this...rather than being an critic...use the above INDICATORS and use them next time out.Learn how the pen reading ,wind and track condition affects the running...Learn the PACE of the race...than put this to good use and make some money.

Happy punting peoples