Betting World Panel Discussion

naresh wrote:

rob faux wrote: The other day I heard Neil Maurice qoute some stats supporting why he would go for the 3yr old Gold Standard.
Last night Vee repeated them (so we know where they came from)
I know some people love stats ( I am one ) but just a word of warning to anybody who is thinking of rushing out to back it ,based on those stats.
Vee says ,since 1999, 3 horses have run in the Met and 2 have won ...strike rate 67%!
What he doesn't say is when Horse Chestnut won it in 1999 ,it was the first 3 yr old in over 50 years to win it. The next year,another 3 yr old Badgers Coast also won it.
So ,the stats also say
a)only 2 3yr old winners in 70 years
b)no 3 yr old has won it since 2000
c)only MdK has managed it in those 70 years!!!!
Just another angle on the same stats. :ohmy:

Rob, its better to analyse how many 3yo's have run in the Met for the last 20 to 25 and take it from there. As you say before Horse Chestnut it was quite awhile back but how many 3yos ran during that time.

Off my head Gimmethegreenlight and Run For It both ran third in the Met and this was within the last decade.

naresh wrote: Rob, apologies. I appreciate everyone's post including yours. I don't go brandishing posts. If there is a mistake and if Im knowledgeable in that aspect and I do like to correct it as it can create a misconception. I have been corrected numerous times and Im learning everyday.

On another note, a participant in the panel implied that Bela Bela incurred a penalty by winning the Paddock Stakes. Bela Bela already incurred the penalty by winning the Woolavington in the last 18 months so she was already on a penalty. I let it be. Why ? Because in my lifetime I shall never know what he knows. Everyone is human to err...

PeeKay wrote: Guys, can anyone help me please? Is there 2 bipots and 2 jackpots as well? Where can i see what is offered and in what race each one of these bets start? When does the 2nd pick6 start? So confusing with the 13 races, so your help will be appreciated.

Doyen wrote: hi all

DM also liked the mount of Strydom in the Cape Flying Champ sprint.

nobody mentioned the cameo appearance of the GP trainer and the tip he gave to the public.
Turf race 1.

i just heard from a mate in JHB its raining there.Is that meeting in jeopardy?
horse is currently 18/10 fav.

PeeKay wrote: Rob, what are your thoughts of Gold Standard placing? I can tell you in absolute confidence that the connections are expecting a massive run from GS.

rob faux wrote:

PeeKay wrote: Rob, what are your thoughts of Gold Standard placing? I can tell you in absolute confidence that the connections are expecting a massive run from GS.

Peekay,I have raced much too long to ever say never but I follow certain "rules" based on stats or patterns....and I never touch badly handicapped horses!
Gold Standard has done nothing to show me he is even the best 3yr old in the Cape ,never mind SA and certainly no Horse Chestnut ............if it turns out he is developing into a brilliant freak then maybe....he wouldn't be the first horse to prove me wrong but I like to play with the odds!

mr hawaii wrote:

rob faux wrote:

PeeKay wrote: Rob, what are your thoughts of Gold Standard placing? I can tell you in absolute confidence that the connections are expecting a massive run from GS.

Peekay,I have raced much too long to ever say never but I follow certain "rules" based on stats or patterns....and I never touch badly handicapped horses!
Gold Standard has done nothing to show me he is even the best 3yr old in the Cape ,never mind SA and certainly no Horse Chestnut ............if it turns out he is developing into a brilliant freak then maybe....he wouldn't be the first horse to prove me wrong but I like to play with the odds!

for me Gimmethegreenlight could not win as a 3yr old rated 117 (54kg) so I'm not sure if this horse rated 108 can beat his elders so early in his Classic season(52kg)