KENILWORTH - TUES 14 FEBRUARY 2017

Just one bet for me today in Race 4 being Cautiontothewind.

She improved tremendously with blinkers last time out running second in a strong field that has seen 3 winners come out that formline. She beat Margylle by 1,5 lengths and has a better draw today. More importantly she beat Ashfahan by 1,3 lengths who then beat Elegancia by half a length. Another winner to come out of that formline is Bushy Park. Cautiontothewind beat Bushy Park by over 9 lengths (it does look like Bushy Park had an off day) and then Bushy Park beat Sister Soozie by 0.75 length.

In summation on the collateral form, Cautiontothewind should finish 1,5L in front of Margylle, 1,8L in front of Elegancia and a whopping 9,9L in front of Sister Soozie. My main concern is that Oswald Noach is not really used to being in the winners box but he has only had 5 of his last 60 runners start in single figures. At 8/1 Cautiontothewind looks a very nice EW bet.

Play well.

Talking of Cautiontothewind , I would advise punters to be very wary of frontrunners against strong winds expected this afternoon , horses will be coming on strongly from off the pace !

Just a gentle head wind at the moment

R1
favourite went down well
Made In Hollywood place and exacta chance

shrek wrote: Just one bet for me today in Race 4 being Cautiontothewind.

She improved tremendously with blinkers last time out running second in a strong field that has seen 3 winners come out that formline. She beat Margylle by 1,5 lengths and has a better draw today. More importantly she beat Ashfahan by 1,3 lengths who then beat Elegancia by half a length. Another winner to come out of that formline is Bushy Park. Cautiontothewind beat Bushy Park by over 9 lengths (it does look like Bushy Park had an off day) and then Bushy Park beat Sister Soozie by 0.75 length.

In summation on the collateral form, Cautiontothewind should finish 1,5L in front of Margylle, 1,8L in front of Elegancia and a whopping 9,9L in front of Sister Soozie. My main concern is that Oswald Noach is not really used to being in the winners box but he has only had 5 of his last 60 runners start in single figures. At 8/1 Cautiontothewind looks a very nice EW bet.

Play well.

Shrek, bear in mind it was Sister Soozie's "first day school", she wasn't expected to win but was not friendless in the market. Not drawn well and slow away on the day, overall that was a good effort. Hopefully that was down to being green. If she has improved from that run, collateral form will be meaningless, she's the one they will all have to beat.

Spot on Fafi , nice trifecta as well

bayern wrote:

shrek wrote: Just one bet for me today in Race 4 being Cautiontothewind.

She improved tremendously with blinkers last time out running second in a strong field that has seen 3 winners come out that formline. She beat Margylle by 1,5 lengths and has a better draw today. More importantly she beat Ashfahan by 1,3 lengths who then beat Elegancia by half a length. Another winner to come out of that formline is Bushy Park. Cautiontothewind beat Bushy Park by over 9 lengths (it does look like Bushy Park had an off day) and then Bushy Park beat Sister Soozie by 0.75 length.

In summation on the collateral form, Cautiontothewind should finish 1,5L in front of Margylle, 1,8L in front of Elegancia and a whopping 9,9L in front of Sister Soozie. My main concern is that Oswald Noach is not really used to being in the winners box but he has only had 5 of his last 60 runners start in single figures. At 8/1 Cautiontothewind looks a very nice EW bet.

Play well.

Shrek, bear in mind it was Sister Soozie's "first day school", she wasn't expected to win but was not friendless in the market. Not drawn well and slow away on the day, overall that was a good effort. Hopefully that was down to being green. If she has improved from that run, collateral form will be meaningless, she's the one they will all have to beat.

Fair enough, she does has scope and deserves to be favorite. Sister Soozie did not meet as strong a field as Cautiontothewind met last time. Cautiontothewind looked a different horse with the blinkers and a repeat of that run will see her go very close. I just feel I would rather take the 8/1 a win and 17,5/10 a place than the 5/2 a win on Sister Soozie.

winzip wrote: Looking at the 2nd race i have to choose between the Nel 1st timer(well bred) and the fav.Maybe someone knows if the 1st timer is fancied and trying to win.I can't see anything else beating the fav except this 1st timer.need to back an early winner.

Obviously Dalibhunga fancied so we have to guess a bit ,but I have Prince Alfred rated 76 on his one run and that makes him the 2nd highest rated 3yr old on the entire day,sans improvement, so have to go with him!
Not too many first timers will beat that rating ...but it is a calculated risk!

(In respect of the 4th race ,not often a maiden event causes so much interest or diversity ....so I'll add .........my value is Come On Inn at 25/2 !!! )

rob faux wrote:

winzip wrote: Looking at the 2nd race i have to choose between the Nel 1st timer(well bred) and the fav.Maybe someone knows if the 1st timer is fancied and trying to win.I can't see anything else beating the fav except this 1st timer.need to back an early winner.

Obviously Dalibhunga fancied so we have to guess a bit ,but I have Prince Alfred rated 76 on his one run and that makes him the 2nd highest rated 3yr old on the entire day,sans improvement, so have to go with him!
Not too many first timers will beat that rating ...but it is a calculated risk!

(In respect of the 4th race ,not often a maiden event causes so much interest or diversity ....so I'll add .........my value is Come On Inn at 25/2 !!! )

Come On Inn weighted to win with the apprentice allowance, I brassed her as this is her 17th attempt at breaking out the maiden ranks.

i have yet to see a horse drop from the pace in that fashion and yet come back at them so well in fourth

I like OSCA for an E/W bet

Hither green :blush: :woohoo: place