Form study techniques

Frodo wrote:

Adams wrote: is it possible to over think handicapping?

Imo ...yes .... in some races (mostly in maidens and plated races) one will find 'standout' runners - so if one is looking for the winner (JP / P6), no need to delve any further, but if one is looking for runners to place behind the winner (exacta, trifecta, quartet), of course one needs to delve a little deeper ..... in most handicap races though, due to the nature of a handicap , there will not be a lot of difference between the 'form' runners (the exception would be where the handicapper's hands are tied by some silly rule) and the result could be influenced by luck in running ... so for me it is not worth it to apply hundreds of rules to point to a winner and then find your selection baulked for a run or slow to start etc

Except if you also look at the probability of such occurrences happening ... nothing is certain but "the more you practice the luckier you get "

I have had to simultaneously switch a number of sites - Tabonline giving me numerous problems and now the demise of formgrids. I have since found the tabgold website to be quite useful - but entire handicapping strategy has had to be amended.

What I am missing is any form record service that provides the full running history of the horses, Computaform only provides a limited number of last runs, as does the form on tabgold.

Keeping in mind that the sites I am using now have helped me out during crises, I will probably remain with these services, and adapt my handicapping accordingly. What I have learn't is that one must also account for the stability and longevity prospects of the sites being used - or risk being left high and dry , so there is a danger in becoming over reliant on any specific service.

Are there any otther services ABC members are using at the moment - breeding info? Full records? etc....

www.gallop.co.za

Quite handy, give you collateral form lines, betting and race predictor

I use Formgrids to see if a winner of a race has beaten a subsequent winner. No other site offers me that.

Adams what exactly are you meaning when you say "demise of Formgrids"?

The current unavailability, of course with the understanding that it is out of your control, and with the due sympathy.

Great coz I hate the word demise used with Formgrids,,

Mac wrote: I use Formgrids to see if a winner of a race has beaten a subsequent winner. No other site offers me that.

If you click on the finishing position at the end of the horses form line on the gallop site it shows you all the finishers and subsequent run positions.

Finding Gallop quite handy, Only provides me a little extra calculation to get the runner's actual finishing time - since I have to do the lengths beaten adjustment - and on other occasions when trying to build standard times for a track - it's handy using the winners time. Gallop seems to give full runners record, if not the complete record. So having to jump between a few sites Gallop/Tabgold racecard, computaform but holding up somewhat.

Over the past few days, I have attempted to demonstrate a relatiively simple - yet complex method to handicapping.

(1) You need a toolbox full of angles,
(2) You need to identify the main actors in the cast - based on the strongest angles in play.
(3) You need to narrow down the race to no more than three probabilities,
(4) You need to evaluate the probability of each of the three events ocurring,
(5) You need to watch the market for support, non-support, and crowd frenzy,
(6) You must only take value on your already decided selection,

That's it.

Writing analysis like this is very emotionally taxing. In the past I have had to face the consequences of being wrong once in a while -- and that certainly overshadows the many times of being right

biscuit
Just wondering, as to the methods used, why all get so different results or conclusions.


One of my favourite method/pastime is to compare times of past runs with others that have run the same distance on the day
I do it for every runner and for each of their runs.Vey time consuming but some great value to be found
I am only on Formgrids and i use their carded runners as a reference and for comparision purposes

Feel free to inbox me for more details

Trying to move this topic out of graveyard.