TURFFONTEIN, 26/08

R2 IMPERIAL OUNCE WIN

After an early Christmas present on Thursday, it is back to the grindstone with 5 very competitive handicaps to be solved in order to win the P6

R2: First choice for me is Polar Ice - slight doubt about the 1600 (he is a Var after all), but his form behind Alex the Great (and Purple Diamond) looks good to me; Skiminac disappointed last time and seems held by PI on form behind Purple Diamond, but is my second choice from Artax, who imo has something to find to match the other two ...

R3: Noceur looks overdue and seems hard to beat; plenty of challengers for second - of these I prefer Rolled Silver who is in form and gets pole position, of the rest, only Generosa can be excluded for the trifecta imo

R4: Weak maiden; Justify tries 2000 and looks to have the most potential from the older Moroccan Spice, who is having only his 3rd run and gets blinkers fitted, so improvement possible; should these two fail, the obvious choice is Graf Spree; Reminiscence (having his 36th try) and Young Eagle both look well held by Graf Spree, while the others also look really moderate

R5: First (and maybe the toughest one to digest) of the handicaps; Zeal and Zest and Holy Joe both are relatively lightly raced, so must be first on the list of likely winners, but most of the others could win at best - interesting that bar ZaZ and Frikkie (who won over further in Kimberley), none of these have won a race in the last 6 months ... either go with ZaZ and HJ, or load up ...

R6: 1000m sprint handicap; Cathedral County and Alpine Echo top the list of likely winners imo; both lightly raced and both look to have improvement to come; both will however probably be coming from off the pace (even with AE having the advantage of pole position), so the front running Hot August and Duke Nukem could prove hard to catch; while All Night Flight and Fidelio can't be considered no-hopers

R7: Last week my 'take a stand' horse failed dismally; this week I'm taking chance in this race withe Shortstop; he has his 3rd run after gelding and is probably most effective over 1200 - he has won at this track, has a good draw and looks very competitively handicapped; Penultimate probably the main danger, while Amber Flash (more to do), August Duke and Ladies Club (always thereabouts this track and trip, but should be held by AD on their runs behind Tell My Star) are the other dangers imo

R8: Trappy contest where I am struggling to find the winner; Flag of France is having his 100th start, and only once did he win at this track - pole position and jockey should make him very competitive though; El Bombero always come from off the pace and imo needs 1400 - so the good draw could be nullified; Gaisce Gold has come down in the ratings and one of his 3 wins was over this track and trip, so could upset; Quattro had come good and can't be ignored, and there does not seem to a lot between Minnesota and the maiden Singaswewin on their last runs behind Roman Evening; surely the other three have their work cut out

R9: Another competitive event to close; if ignoring his last run, Apple Crumble has many of these held, but he is a 7 yr old having his 14th start only, so clearly has his problems; William Nicol (better 1200 ?) Last Girl Standing (has her 6th run in 46 days ?), Tokyo Drift (not at best this track ?) and Master Boulder (3rd run after a break, so should be cherry ripe) are the obvious contenders, while Jim Cables has tumbled down the ratings and could feature

Enjoy

If you fellas are having a punt, be sure to take a few bob on this all to come

RODEO JOE (Win) X REVELATION (Place) X EL BOMBERO (Place) 20/1

There has been a lot of effort with Prosperity, and the tongue tie seems to have helped a bit. There is no hint of class from anything in the race, so the speed advantage held by prosperity, is valuable. It should make it very difficult for any first timer to beat if he is together, shaped up an almost bet at 3/1 except for the in-out performances. 2 of the last four runs been disastrous, so hhard to put money on an in and out runner -- should win this comfortably though if everything comes together.

Don't leave out Jingle

Stable comments
R3 Casino p
R5 Zeal And Zest good e/w
R6 Duke Nukem e/w
R7 Ladies Club winning chance

The Tin Man will open his account shortly, very nice run - but was always going to be a big ask.

Race 2 number 10 Skiminac.
Win Bet


Cover bet
Exacta 11 by 10

I find no edge for any of Artax, Skiminac and Imperial Ounce here, perhaps had it been at 1200m, I would have given Artax the edge. With nothing to seperate these three, one has to look elsewhere in the field.The only possibility looks like Polar Ice, still a colt , lightly raced, rested. So it looks like Polar Ice from any of the other three. Arrtax has certainly showed some pace over 1200, and current runs at longer trip may not be representative - but I could never take the odds of 8/10, given how close it seems at this trip.

I would have preferred Noceur at 1400m, at 1600m there is nothing to seperate it from Salmon Run, and in fact Rolled Silver looks stronger than both - but even that being a weak proposition.

based on that, and the obvious hints around cloud nine - I will be cloud nine for this one. Let's hope it shows on the track what it's obviously showing at home.

If one looks at the other form indicator though, in terms of money won - Noceur is head and shoulders above the field and would take a brave punter to take it on with cloud nine at 3/10 .

Should be an interesting affair - Superior Class (NOCEUR) , taking on a highly regarded sort (CLOUD NINE)

Class beats connections expectations

I am always happy to see an Alec Laird winner. True gentleman of the game. Last of a dying breed. !!