WHAT'S YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF VALUE?

In games of pure chance, the probability of a particular outcome is known in advance- e.g. 50% chance of heads for an unbiased coin. That can be tested by spinning the coin many times. Value is thus obvious- even money is fair, anything more is value, anything less is below value. A compulsive gambler may take 8/10 and win as a once off and beat the odds. But if he does that over any extended period he will lose. Hence if you hope to win in the long term you have to bet for value. i.e. Your odds must be at least as good as the true odds implied by the probabilities of the outcomes.
In racing, while the odds may give some idea of the probability of any horse winning a particular race, the reality is that the true probabilities are unknown- they can only be estimates. We would have to run the same race under the same conditions multiple times to get the true probabilities- and that is not possible.
The skill in betting on racing (or any other event where the true probabilities are not known, like sports)
is in your ability to accurately estimate the probabilities in a race in advance, so that you can evaluate whether the odds offered on your selection are sufficient to provide the necessary value to give you a chance of winning in the long term.
The tote has the added complication that you don't know the final odds on your horse even if you wait till the last minute to place your bet.
The difficulty as we all know is that the odds offered include the bookies profit margin ( or the tote takeout) so you start at a disadvantage.
The point has been made by others that part of the value you get from betting may be the excitement or entertainment value- and whether you buy a drink or place a R20 bet is also just a decision between different leisure consumption options.
If you are betting for profit over the long term, however, you will only succeed if you are consistently taking bets that prove to be value.

There are then two fundamental questions:
1. Is it possible for anyone to do this consistently?
2. If yes, then how do you do it?

Peter D

excellent post.


and of course in games of fixed odds and fixed probability the math works out perfect and one does not need to think.....but does one?

I fully agree that racing brings itself facets that one cannot exactly pinpoint BUT that should not stop you from looking for value. Even if its only perceived value one should look for it anyway.

Most people that I talk to and meet don't look for value at all. The BIGGEST single contributor to missing out on value is LACK OF FUNDS.

The less bank you have the less value you will obtain.

Today in my local Tesco it was 500g (5 chops) of Pork for £3-00 (6-7)or 1000g for £5-00 so there you have value.

BUT if you arrive there with ONLY £5 in your pocket then you fucked and cannot get value. You end up buying 2 chops for £2.50 so that you have £80p for the potatoes and £90p for the veggies with still taking home change YET you have lost out BIG time on the value front.

The BIGGEST exploiters of "lack of vaue" are the POUND shops. Where yes you can buy 5 things for a pound BUT had you £100 in your pocket those 5 things would have only cost you £4

I think betting is the same. The guys with low balances or funds have NO chance in looking for value. They simply place their bets where they can with whom they can and accept the result.

Countrymember wrote: Apple CEO Tim Cook is claiming that the $1000 iPhone X is a good value. Cook said, “It’s the last phone you’ll ever need for the next eight months."
- Conan O'Brien, September 20, 2017

:lol: :lol: :lol:

@ Easy. A guy with low funds and balances still can find value. You don't have to be a high roller to get value. I have low funds but I don't have to accept what price is given to me and I don't have to place a bet for the sake of placing a bet. Most posters have posted about bookmakers and the price they willing to take. I know of a bet on the Tote that due to past carryover or carryovers the winning dividend is highly inflated. The other bet statistically in the long run you can make a profit. Now that's value to me.

some of the posts I just cannot understand...where is the value on a losing bet...?

firstly...your bet has to "win"...secondly you have to show a profit...then it's about the risk that you took...

my opinion...

Naresh


well done then you are one of the blessed.