Turffontein Saturday 21/10/17

Race 2 - Microbe drawn wide the last 2 and has 3rd run after rest. Place.
Race 6 - End Game i think is better than rated so if ready today would have a nice chance.

Royal Utopia in the 6th looks a division better on her kzn 2 oaks efforts. 7/1 into 27/10 last time when reported in season. Should go better today with Lerena maybe?

Looks a nice competitive card - and as my balance in the betting account has improved during the last couple of meetings, I'm looking forward to this afternoon - not least to see the Lions run circles around those Mountain Goats

Thoughts on the card:

R2: Shufoog all the rage, but still a first timer around a tricky turn, so no value at those odds imo; main danger would be Microbe, who gets blinkers and Striker after a disappointing last effort; Ultimate Shamrock from a good draw and in-form stable to finish close up as well

R3: Interesting Grad Plate for 3 yr olds; no doubt that Naafer on paper looks the right one; gets 3 kgs from his stablemate, so should be no race; the fact that he is not odds-on though, sends out warning signals; Pillaroftheearth consistent, and should hold Alfolk at least, but probably lacks the class of some of these; so runners like Boatswain and Whorly Whorly need to be considered; still if Naafer is ready after the break, I think he will win; if not it becomes open; interesting to see the 3 yr old filly making her debut in this field

R4: Pinnacle, so should be rather straightforward; however the principles are all returning from breaks. Pagoda imo probably not really suited to the track, but has obvious claims along with Crowd Pleaser. Girl on the Run is a winner over 1800 at this track, tries blinkers so also must have a chance with Bankable Teddy and I'm also giving Cool Chardonnay a chance (better over further, but really well weighted here)

R5: Ali Bon Dubai the obvious one, but his racing style could be a problem at this track - I know he won here last time, but still he would need all the right gaps to open; main danger imo is Gentleman Only who has a good draw and should be closer to the pace than the favorite; next in line for me would be West Coast Warrior (Striker sticks with him from a good draw) and Highlander, who will probably play 'catch-me-if-you-can' coming into the straight. None of the others are totally without claims.

R6: Royal Utopia a big disappointment last time, but she was found to be 'in season', so worth another chance - however the 1800 could be a problem as imo she needs more ground to show her best; I think there is plenty in the form to suggest that she could find it tough to beat End Game at the weights - also taking into account that EG will probably find the 1800 more suitable and Striker can't hurt; these two stand out for me from Miss Bulsara who imo has more to do and would prefer a longer straight; others to consider are Tiger Flame, Snowdonia and perhaps Irridium Silver

R7: Conditions Plate for fillies and mares where Bi Pot stands out; needed her last start and had some excuses as well according to the stable; would be my banker in a P6; main danger imo is Kilauea, who has her first run for a new stable and steps out with the blinkers removed; held by Bi Pot on form, but would be my clear 2nd choice. Wind Chill imo will find this too short and Fort Ember has lots to find at the weights and the Tarry coupling should all need the outing; the others are simply outclassed imo

R8: Social Order all the rage, can win, but the track could present a problem; for me the value here is Mambo Symphony, who from pole position and with the cheek pieces re-fitted is going to make them come and catch him; Whosethebossnow has something of a reputation and can throw out a challenge; nothing much between Unagi and Cashin, while Elevated and Wild Brier also have some credentials, should SC not get going in time

R9: Not the easiest race to close; Neuf de Pape unlucky last time and has won twice over 1600; has a good draw and must have a chance with Jackman, who also is often thereabouts and is a winner over this track and trip; Space Tornado now down to a realistic rating and is well handicapped, tough draw probably means he can place at best; for me Detonation only has Gavin and a good draw going for him; despite blinkers being fitted imo has a lot to over 1600

Enjoy

I agree with Frodo - Bi Pot - one bet for the day

Will take my chances with bankering artica in all exotics today as he has no doubts about his fitness will be suited to track and distance and last time besides being to sharp was racing on his own for most of the way in the worst of the going..not to mention his jockey can ride a bit in fact his rides on good emperor west coast warrior and microbe also are worth taking note of

Royal Resolution place etc

Microbe at 10/1 worth a smack in my opinion

Magi wrote: Microbe at 10/1 worth a smack in my opinion

hahaha .... took max bet 13/10 fixed place and small on the heads at 10's ...60% deduction... :evil:

most bipot tickets in the bin

mydada wrote: most bipot tickets in the bin

Only if you didn't change your ticket.Was really hoping Donovan Mansour's mount was not going to be tote favorite.No such luck.With a 4% strike rate you can never be confident.

durbs wrote:

mydada wrote: most bipot tickets in the bin

Only if you didn't change your ticket.Was really hoping Donovan Mansour's mount was not going to be tote favorite.No such luck.With a 4% strike rate you can never be confident.

Sorry to show my ignorance SIr, but how do you change your ticket if taken online at Tab? Sorry never figured it out?

Sorry for my ignorance.

durbs wrote:

mydada wrote: most bipot tickets in the bin

Only if you didn't change your ticket.Was really hoping Donovan Mansour's mount was not going to be tote favorite.No such luck.With a 4% strike rate you can never be confident.

never liked it going down