Turffontein Saturday-Featuring the Tony Ruffel

I can't believe the price on she's a giver running in a conditions race of a 101 MR carrying 54.5 kg has to be a 5 star bet over the mile. San dermin shud come home smoking a pipe as was the unluckiest of loses last time out. Pagoda should plain down be too good for this lot at pinnacle level. that's a top treble for me today. nice prices

MasterOfMyFate wrote: San Fermin should be tough to beat today. A let down on Summer Cup day after all the hype but she really produced a smart finish over a distance too short LTO. She's definitely going to be a filly running in graded features in time so should really be winning this.

That's my only bet on the nose in Jhb.

Yankee (3 Legs) Repeat bet
Yankee disclaimer
Leg 1
3.58
, South Africa
Turffontein
Race 10
Fixed - Win
03 Feb 2018 17:40
1 Tigerlace
Leg 2
1.82
, South Africa
Turffontein
Race 2
Fixed - Win
03 Feb 2018 13:05
1 Social Order
Leg 3
2
, South Africa
Turffontein
Race 3
Fixed - Win
03 Feb 2018 13:40
6 Shes A Giver

AND ......

Yankee (3 Legs) Repeat bet
Yankee disclaimer
Leg 1
1.82
, South Africa
Turffontein
Race 2
Fixed - Win
03 Feb 2018 13:05
1 Social Order
Leg 2
2
, South Africa
Turffontein
Race 3
Fixed - Win
03 Feb 2018 13:40
6 Shes A Giver
Leg 3
1.4
, South Africa
Turffontein
Race 4
Fixed - Place (3)
03 Feb 2018 14:15
4 Dancing Rebel

Striker's write up from the citizen:

Race 1 is a Maiden Plate where Manhattan Cocktail looks the horse we all have to beat. Admittedly he is coming back in distance but he has a good draw. He will probably have to jump out on terms this time. As some of these horses are lightly raced you have to respect the likes of Sirtain, Infamous Fox and Power Of Place.

I’m riding Coastal Torrent who is drawn a bit wide and trying the distance for the first time.

The fact Muzi Yeni is off Coastal Torrent to ride Sirtain has to tell you something. However, I would like nothing better than to show him he’s made a mistake.

Race 2 is a small but very tricky Progress Plate where the highest rated horse is Glider Pilot. I rode him last time after a long rest so he should be fitter. Unfortunately he was not comfortable around the turn and raced awkwardly throughout the race. On best form he should win but I’m not sure he is yet ready to produce his best run.

Other horses with similar form are Social Order and Being Fabulous. However, the unknown runner is Greek Fire. Even though he is not well handicapped, he is laid back and still immature so he could make huge improvement and beat all his opposition.

Race 3 is Plate race so your highest handicapped horses should come out on top. On this occasion She’s A Giver comes out way above the others and therefore she’s a banker in the Place Accumulator. The dangers are Redberry Lane and Tambalang.

Race 4 is a Maiden Plate with none of the runners having exceptionally strong form. My first choice is Rising Legend who has only had one run and has scope for improvement. He did run second on that occasion but was beaten quite a distance by Lobo’s Legend who contested a feature in Cape Town last week, so makes it a creditable performance.

To be on the safe side you will have to include Agent Kay and Ghost Rider. Those three should see you through the Pick 6.

Race 5 is another Plate race with the highest rated horses having an advantage. Therefore, the only horses who can win are Witchcraft, Patchit Up Baby and Bondiblu. They should be good enough for the Pick 6 and pick any two for the PA.

Race 6 is a handicap with many horses having winning chances. There are a group of well handicapped runners – Irish Pride, Count Tassilo, Finchatton and Secret Captain – but they are either in need of a run or have bad draws, and that could bring others into the race.

The race does not stop there. Horses like Matador Man, Unagi, Romany Prince and Starrett City also come into the equation if they produce their best efforts.

For the PA include as many as possible and for the Pick 6 the field could easily apply.

I ride Kings Archer who has a good draw but looks held by the weight turnover by Arctica who in turn is held by other horses. It will be difficult for Kings Archer to place but as he is fit and well, hopefully he can surprise.

Race 7 is the Tony Ruffel Stakes and we have young, up-and-coming, lightly raced colts who are hoping to make it in the upcoming features. This is a Plate race in which higher rated horses should come out on top but because of their rate of improvement that could change completely over the next couple of months.

The highest rated horse is Ideal Secret who has an undeniable chance. Seerite has beaten Ideal Secret but was withdrawn from a race last time and could need the run. The horse we might all have to beat is Yakeen who has a great draw over this course and distance.

Others to include are Pietro Mascagni, Wonderwall and my ride, Surcharge.

Surcharge is a top horse but 1400m is not his right distance as he struggles to keep up with the pace and gets going late. That means his class is getting him through but once he starts racing over further you will see the best of him.

For the PA include a few of these mentioned and for the Pick 6 include all those mentioned as well as Sir David Baird and Purple Diamond.

Race 8 is the Three Troikas Stakes for fillies and the same rule applies and they can make huge improvement. For the PA San Fermin could have been a PA banker but from a wide draw it could be worth adding in Fish River. For the Pick 6 consider Takingthepiece and No More Words.

However, the choice does not end there. You could quite easily go for the field.

I ride Dame Kelly. She’s not the best handicapped but could quite easily win this as well.

Race 9 is another Plate race. The best-weighted runner is Pagoda but unfortunately his last run was not that good. However, he has run in feature races against some of the best in the country.

If you look past him the other contenders are Cool Chardonnay, The Elmo Effect, Sheet Weaver and Dromedaris.

Include as many of those for the PA but there are other possibilities for the Pick 6 like Kilrain, Dawn Assault and Smart Mart.

Race 10 is a Maiden Plate with Mambo Model my first selection as she finished third in her only start. Her dangers should be Sunshine Silk and Tigerlace. I ride Written who has not finished far behind Tigerlace so we must have a winning change.

The dark horse is Babe Paley who found some support on debut.

Well on the whole I agree with Striker

I do think that Glider Pilot will improve a lot today and at best will take a lot of beating - even not at best should give Greek Fire and Social Order a lot to think about

Both She's a Giver and to a lessor extent Redberry Lane may be better over 1400, so a runner like Tambalang could run them down late

Can't really find anything on the 4th apart from Agent Kay and The Rising Legend

Agreed the 5th lie between the 3 mentioned

In the 6th I think Secret Captain is better than an 86 (won the Guineas in Durban last year) - in an open handicap looks attractively priced for an each-way stab

The Tony Ruffel is complicated my many that will be using this as a prep for the Guineas, so maybe one of the runners down at the bottom of the card who will be trying their utmost to qualify could upset

Saint Fermin does look the right one in the Three Troikas, the de Kock pair the obvious back-up

Pagoda well weighted in the Pinnacle, not sure what happened, but hos previous form does point to him being hard to beat; The Elmo Effect looks good value in an otherwise open-looking contest

Enjoy

Steckenpferd wrote: Planning to have a few quid E/W on Imperial Ounce in the first if I can get 11/1 or better in the UK. Ran very well last Saturday and won't mind if the ground is on the soft side.

Just had a bit ew at 13/2 without the favourite,,Betway Sports

INFAMOUS FOX - cut 2 days after stopping late over 1160m - now draws 1 - might need a run but at 14-1 i'll go e/w
GLIDER PILOT(trainer put in 2 others I presume to let the race stand and hopefully make a strong pace) - let's see if that last run was wrong - I respect Social Order(might be a little far but small field so depends on pace) and Greek Fire(not sure if he was entered for the Tony Ruffel)
TAMBALANG - going against the best handicapped She's A giver just because this filly has run her best race over this C/D with some give in the ground.
THE RISING LEGEND - looks the right one as he was not pushed on debut after a slow start
PATCHIT UP BABY - This race depends on pace - there are at least 3 or 4 that like to go handy - I think they might go too fast and compound which would suite Patchit and Bondiblu - One who could upset if it rains before the race is Seal My Fate as long as she does not do the donkey work and sits just behind the leaders
ROMANY PRINCE e/w- i'm forgiving him that last run but very open race
SEERITE - too open a race but from draw 3 he can slot in behind the De Kock pair(perhaps Sir David Baird will go around to set the pace for the other 2?) and possibly outsprint them late but I'm going a few in my exotics.
GREEN TOP - was hopelessly placed 300m to go last start (2nd last) passed most but too late - I'll go e/w at 16-1.
PAGODA - ran the race of his life over 2450m but needs a strong dose of Ritalin as he seems not to concentrate :evil: - Who knows what he'll do today... lots of others with chances
WRITTEN - amazing to think that she has faced horses like Pagoda, Tilbury Fort and Orchid Islands in the Maidens but still remains winless - She has some soundness issues but the signs are there that a win is around the corner.

Lovely Turf Card..... looks like a quality card. My PA play minimum horses for the day...

Race 3: Redberry Lane
Race 4: The Rising Legend
Race 5: Bondiblu
Race 6: Matador Man
Race 7: Yakeen
Race 8: San Fermin
Race 9: Pagoda

I will take this straight line and work around a few legs....Redberry Lane is running with no weight off the 3 good seconds. The Rising Legend ran 2nd to Lobo's Legend and the form is good. Yakeen beat Alshibaa by 5 lengths and that is a half good horse. San Fermin comes with all the hype in the world....has to win this if he wants to confirm those thoughts.

Race 1 ~ Respect Manhattan Cocktail as stable think he is very good and his first run didn't go his way. No value though, Infamous Fox a big price at 14s though.

Race 2 ~ Greek Fire expected to be smart and was giving chunks to Pietro last time. Think he shows great improvement here and gets up. Respect for Glider Pilot but he needs to prove he is as classy as first touted. Social Order a good yard stick but a bit flat for me of late.

Race 3 ~ Redberry Lane is a smart horse on her day, hopefully today is one of those days. If you got the 5/2 you are in the pound seat, if not then its a watching brief.

Race 4 ~ The Rising Legend looks the right one, decent horse who bumped one first up. Agent Kay has been racing quite a bit of late and would rather take the fresher horse here.

Race 5 ~ Witchcraft is classy. Tarry slowly coming right and she gets her favoured 2400m trip. 33/10 possibly the bet of the day for me. Danger is Patchitup Baby.

Race 6 ~ Wide Wide open this. Secret Captain is preferred as given a proper prep last time. Finchatton the big e/w stab with a good draw and a stable slowly coming together for the season.

Race 7 ~ Have always been a big Seerite fan and hoping he can be a lot closer to the pace today. Pietro Mascagni seemed a lot more impressive than Yakeen when comparing last runs and think the pricing may be wrong. Last horse to mention is Ideal Secret who has shown some serious class and may be suited to the 7f better than others.

Race 8 ~ No More Words did finish close to San Fermin last time but when comparing performances, San Fermin comes out tops. Think she will love the 7f and will take a ton of beating. MDK horses the dangers.

Race 9 ~ Pagoda the right one on ratings but will take some value on Wild Brier. Seems unexposed at this distance and 14/1 is a fair e/w play. Smart Mart gets Murray back and on the right mark could be dangerous here.

Race 10 ~ Mambo Model the one on form, should improve and looks a huge runner. Tigerlace will not have my money in the maidens. Sunshine Silk the danger, Babe Paley needs respect.

Infamous Fox...places and sw/ex with Manhattan Cocktail to win

davetheflower wrote:

Steckenpferd wrote: Planning to have a few quid E/W on Imperial Ounce in the first if I can get 11/1 or better in the UK. Ran very well last Saturday and won't mind if the ground is on the soft side.

Just had a bit ew at 13/2 without the favourite,,Betway Sports

Cheers Steck

i wonder how greek fire and ideal secret go back home ...the key for the second race