Mr H. very close thinking to a comment on SP -
John Bryant says:
7th February 2018 at 1:37 pm
So, from next month, Legal Eagle will be 127 (the 6th highest MR in the world) and Sail South (123) will be the 12th highest MR in the world! Clearly the NHRA has lost the plot.
The current MR system (and WFA scale) is a proven system worldwide (introduced 70 years ago in 1948). The bastardised MR system in South Africa has failed because the “administrators” have tied the hands of the handicappers with a set of rules that create the “official merit ratings” as opposed to the “actual merit ratings” penciled in by both the official and “amateur” handicappers (like myself).
Those who would like to see the old Race Figure system back must remember that this system has nothing to do with a horses’s ability, but only the number of wins. Maiden colts had a RF of 18 (fillies 15) and 6 points were added to the RF for each win. So before the Met, On Susanna would have had a RF of 33 and Last Winter 42. Neither would have come close to getting in to the Met!! With a RF system, many winners of the Epsom Derby and Oaks would not have qualified!! In the “old days” with the RF system, the 3YO’s had to have at least 6 wins to get into the July – horses like Sea Cottage, Naval Escort, In Full Flight etc. Many trainers were very disappointed when their champion 3YO did not get into the July because their RF was to low.
The Merit Rating system tends (globally) to produce a high level of consistency at Group/Stakes level and a low level of consistency at the bottom (look at those races in PE and DBN where the average MR is less than 70 – less than a maiden). Older horses with problems that seldom run to their MRs.
The fact that the “administrators” have made rules that keep African Night Sky at MR102, does not mean that the MR system does not work. Since winning the winter triple crown (like Pocket Power), African Night Sky has had 3 runs – a Pinnacle Stakes over 1400m (well short of this best) and based on the official MR’s of Edict of Nantes, Captain America and Sail South he ran a 111. In the Queens Plate (1600m and short of his best) he ran 6lbs below Legal Eagle and about 4lbs below Captain America, Sail South and Marinaresco – so about 113. In the Met he ran the same rating as Legal Eagle and Captain America – which based on the ratings given to Oh Susanna and Last Winter is a 116. So, as an “amateur” handicapper, I know he ran a 111 over 1400m, a 113 over 1600m and a 116 over 2000m. Everybody knows this, and so that is why he is favourite for the July carrying bottom weight off and “official” MR of 102. The NHRA rules mean that the handicappers must ignore his last 3 runs and he stays an MR102. So, what has failed – the MR system or the NHRA administrators??
I agree with Peter de Beyer. Lets have more Plate races plus MR handicaps. In that way, trainers can choose what to do with their up and coming 3YO’s. But when it comes to Group races, qualifiers are based on merit ratings. So if the handicapper does not have his hands tied by the administrators, then this does not affect Group qualification, as the horse will get the appropriate MR whether winning a MR handicap or a Plate race.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
