Vaal Tuesday

Sammy Silver wrote: Our Shining Star. Take as much of the 5-1 that you can now.

Will shorten before race time.

mr hawaii wrote: SUNSHINE SILK - clear run last time and could have won
THAT'S LIFE
CLEVER GUY - if I recall was due to run a few weeks ago but racing abandoned - Strydom was carded to ride then and again takes the saddle. E/w at 14/1
LEVI LADY will be involved
ANGELIC /OUR SHINING STAR
AL DANZA has her first run in non-feature for over a year - bad draw but no pain at 10-1
KEANAN'S ROCK (respect Helios and Darkest Hour who has an entry for the Classic)

Yeldah wrote: R2 Milesende - good support in the betting market for the first timer; give the De Kock runner a fright?

R3 That's Life

R4 Tandeva and Golden Man

R5 Levi Lady

R6 Littlewood and Angelic

R7 If Al Danza was drawn better would be my best bet for the day @ 14/1...best value...

R8 Jackman, Darkest Hour and Prince Swarovski...

bayern wrote:

Yeldah wrote: R2 Milesende - good support in the betting market for the first timer; give the De Kock runner a fright?

Yeldah, this is not an attack on you, but rather something that has always interested me. Maybe someone who works for a bookie or who has worked at a bookie can enlighten us, then I can understand the phrase "good support" for a first timer.

What is the limit (to win) on a first timer R 5 000.00 or R 10 000.00, or bigger? If (say) R 5 000.00, it's only taken over R 300.00 to halve the odds, and say double, if the limit is R 10 000.00. Unless this is an adjustment based on hear-say, or one worked at the bookmaker who laid the bet, any idea where Joe Public can see what has been traded on the horse thus far?

Here's the kicker though, why would you take (say) R 5 000 or R 10 000.00 ante post when at race time the horse might drift and you can take whatever amount you want?

Check the betting trend closer to race time.

Yeldah wrote:

bayern wrote:

Yeldah wrote: R2 Milesende - good support in the betting market for the first timer; give the De Kock runner a fright?

Yeldah, this is not an attack on you, but rather something that has always interested me. Maybe someone who works for a bookie or who has worked at a bookie can enlighten us, then I can understand the phrase "good support" for a first timer.

What is the limit (to win) on a first timer R 5 000.00 or R 10 000.00, or bigger? If (say) R 5 000.00, it's only taken over R 300.00 to halve the odds, and say double, if the limit is R 10 000.00. Unless this is an adjustment based on hear-say, or one worked at the bookmaker who laid the bet, any idea where Joe Public can see what has been traded on the horse thus far?

Here's the kicker though, why would you take (say) R 5 000 or R 10 000.00 ante post when at race time the horse might drift and you can take whatever amount you want?

Check the betting trend closer to race time.

Hi Bayern; I have always had the impression that that you either have a punter who bombs the money on late causing the price to shorten, or takes the price early and then allow the price to drift. Not exactly sure which one is the best, but have seen both happen. each strategy has it's merits and I guess it's up to the individual which one is more sneaky.

Also, I do the ante post updates in my handicapping spreadsheet, then if I am home and watching the races live, will update the betting before the exotics start so in essence I do both. not sure if that answers your question or just muddies the water even more. Would be nice to hear from an expert though. Cheers...

lushen wrote: Don't often post, here's my 2cents [aka which horses not to back :whistle: ]

Race 3 - That’s life the horse to beat but @ 15/20 about the win, rather take Crassus to place at 21/10 - don’t see it out the top 4, can’t believe 20/1! Saw some 17/10 about That's life on Sunday night, but that didn't last long at all.

Race 4 - I see the winner coming from one of two horses, with preference to Greasepaint over Cathedral county. Good value in the place at 17/20 to run top 4 looks a blinder. Include all night flight, magic and Lauren Du Var in wider perms.

Race 5 - looks to be a bit more competitive, with Macadamia and Levi lady looking to fight it out - Cals Crush and Lady of the world doing best work late.

Race 6 - looks like the older horses have the edge here - an upset can be delivered. Dawn flight, nicely in here with the claim and I thought 3/1 top 3 places looks value and realistic. Throw in Summer Wind into larger perms in case runs to best. End Game can win and Gottalottaluv must have a chance.

Race 7 - minefield. Thrown pretty much the field in exotics.

Race 8 - another open looking affair, all I can say is that I don’t like Sail for joy. Perhaps Refuge for a top 4 finish at 14/10, drawn widest but that’s striker’s problem.

P6: 1/ 5,7,11,13,14/ 2,4,5,9/ 1,2,5,10,11/ 3-7,9-13/ 1,3,6-9,12,13.....R8000.

lushen wrote: Don't often post, here's my 2cents [aka which horses not to back :whistle: ]

Race 3 - That’s life the horse to beat but @ 15/20 about the win, rather take Crassus to place at 21/10 - don’t see it out the top 4, can’t believe 20/1! Saw some 17/10 about That's life on Sunday night, but that didn't last long at all.

Race 4 - I see the winner coming from one of two horses, with preference to Greasepaint over Cathedral county. Good value in the place at 17/20 to run top 4 looks a blinder. Include all night flight, magic and Lauren Du Var in wider perms.

Race 5 - looks to be a bit more competitive, with Macadamia and Levi lady looking to fight it out - Cals Crush and Lady of the world doing best work late.

Race 6 - looks like the older horses have the edge here - an upset can be delivered. Dawn flight, nicely in here with the claim and I thought 3/1 top 3 places looks value and realistic. Throw in Summer Wind into larger perms in case runs to best. End Game can win and Gottalottaluv must have a chance.

Race 7 - minefield. Thrown pretty much the field in exotics.

Race 8 - another open looking affair, all I can say is that I don’t like Sail for joy. Perhaps Refuge for a top 4 finish at 14/10, drawn widest but that’s striker’s problem.

P6: 1/ 5,7,11,13,14/ 2,4,5,9/ 1,2,5,10,11/ 3-7,9-13/ 1,3,6-9,12,13.....R8000.