Tri festival at the Vaal

DAMN RACE 9 IS DIFFICULT

JACKO BOY
RABIA THE REBEL
CIRCLE OF LATITUDE
INDIAN SONG
ALWAYS RED
SAMMI MOOSA

:whistle: :whistle: DON'T KNOW

Sami Moosa for me

very fit

Not sure they will race - lightning delay

NB!! Please note that Races 9 and 10 today at the Vaal Saturday 9 November 2019 have been abandoned due to inclement weather and lightning.

Frodo wrote: Will be interesting to see what the handicapper makes of this - by my calcs (using our Mickey Mouse ratings) assuuming Green Haze ran to his rating of 107, Soqrat ran to 136 :ohmy:

Highly unlikely that Soqrat ran his best ever race today with 62kg on his back . His best ever was a 134 .

If Green haze ran to his 107 rating then Soqrat ran to a 133 actually.....and if that is the case then Master Magic will be penalised 6 points and Al Mutawakel 5 points . RHE then ran 3 points less than his rating and Divine Odessey 2 points less.

My opinion is Soqrat confirmed just his 131 rating and should be used as linehorse.

Still a Mickey Mouse 133

Anything to think this guy is a better 4yo than a 3yo?

He was a great 3yo but in my opinion he would need to improve slightly to not just fall short of last years very best runners (Meaning Rainbow, DIA, Hawwaam)

Ah ... ratings - like 'beauty', very much in the eye of the beholder .....

Over 1800, I use the assumption that 0.8 kg = 1 length (over 1600, it would be 1 kg = 1 length); in my view the further the trip, the more effect weight has - so for instance over 2400, I use 0.5 kg = 1 length and over 1000, I use 2 kg = 1 length.

That would give the following for the Victory Moon:

Soqrat - 136 (5 points above his current rating)
Green Haze - 107
Master Magic - 105 (5 points above his current rating)
Roy Had Enough - 115 (3 points below his current rating)
Al Mutawakel - 104 (6 points above his current rating)
Divine Odyssey - 116

Imo the rest of the field ran too far below their ratings to take into account.

In this scenario, Green Haze, Roy Had Enough and Divine Odyssey would be the 'line horses' (even though there could be an argument to increase the ratings by a point or two to better fit RHE and DO's ratings - but this would of course mean that MM and AM ran to even higher)

The other argument would be to use Master Magic, Al Mutawakel and Soqrat as the 'line horses' - which would give the following :

Soqrat - 131
Green Haze - 102 (5 points below his official rating)
Master Magic - 100
Roy Had Enough - 110 (8 points below his official rating)
Al Mutawakel - 99
Divine Odyssey - 111 (6 points below his official rating)

I'm inclined to go with the first scenario, as the other one would mean that runners like Shenanigans and Soldier On ran 12 points and more below their ratings

Bob Brogan wrote: Still a Mickey Mouse 133

Anything to think this guy is a better 4yo than a 3yo?

He was a great 3yo but in my opinion he would need to improve slightly to not just fall short of last years very best runners (Meaning Rainbow, DIA, Hawwaam)

I think Hawwaam still needs to prove his rating as a 4 yr old - and imo Soqrat would play with him at level weights - but that's just opinion, not fact :huh:

Apologies - for some reason it seems as if the 'Lengths Behind' on Gallop has changed between when I checked on Saturday afternoon and this morning - with the effect that Soqrat by beating Green Haze by only 2.25 lengths, it would mean that Soqrat ran to 133 (Ziets you are too clever ) if Green Haze achieved 107

New ratings

Soqrat 133 got +2
Green haze 107 linehorse
Master magic 106 got +6
RHE 116 dropped 2 although running to 115
Al mutawakel 103 got +5
Divine odessey 117 although running to 115

Would have to say to you guys its a pleasure to read.

Don't really follow what you post but thanks for your contributions.

I have a neck that looks to the top of the boards and has been a bad affliction for many years .

Cheers