Vaal 26 March 2020 LAST DAY before a 21 day LOCKDOWN:
ORA = Overall Ranking, GRA = GREENIE points, ERA = Exotic ranking, AT = Adjusted Time, SR = Speed Rating ; MS = Median Speed, EDMS = Exact Distance Median Speed, F = Form, S = Statistical Form, I = Intent; SR% = Super Rule % ; T = Total + BAMCurve ; BAM42 = BAMRAL 42 DAYS ; BAM84 = BAMRAL 84 DAYS; BAM168 = BAMRAL 168 DAYS; BAMC = BAMRAL CURVE 252 DAYS BAMRAL = BEST Average Merit Rating Adjusted lengths behind ; BAT = BAMRAL with AT Adjusted Time Adjustment BAT42 = last 42 days; BAT84 = Last 84 days ; BAT168 = Last 168 Days ; BATC = BATCurve 252 Days
VAAL FIBO: R1: ZULUONMYSTOEP (1.25) x R2: Mynage (2.35) x R3: Siren of Greece (1.25) x R4: GREY STREET (3.30) x R5: Bellagio King (16.00) x R6: Tahitian Orana (7.50) x R7: AKWAAN (3.30) x R8: Roger the Dodger (3.50)
EDITOR BIPOT: 4 x 8,1,2 x 11,1,7,10,5,3 x 4 x 9,14,1,2,6,11 (12,4,7,10,13,17) x 8,5,2,1,12,4,7,3
EDITOR PA: 8,1,2 x 11,1,7,10,5,3 x 4 x 9,14,1,2,6,11 (12,4,7,10,13,17) x 8,5,2,1,12,4,7,3 x 1 x 2,7
EDITOR P6: 11,1,7,10,5,3 x 4 x 9,14,1,2,6,11 (12,4,7,10,13,17) x 8,5,2,1,12,4,7,3 x 1 x 2,7,11 (8,3,1)
EDITOR JP1: 4 x 9,14,1,2,6,11 (12,4,7,10,13,17) x 8,5,2,1,12,4,7,3 x 1
EDITOR JP2: x 9,14,1,2,6,11 (12,4,7,10,13,17) x 8,5,2,1,12,4,7,3 x 1 x 2,7,11 (8,3,1)
R1: ZULUONMYSTOEP (1.25) seems the right one here with a 50% to WIN on 26 PSTAT occurrences on ORA backed up by sharing 53.85% to WIN on SR% , 42.31% on ERA, 38.46% on GRA & T and BAT168, 30.77% on AT, BAM84, BAT84. Gets Blinkers fitted over the Vaal Straight and returns from a small rest with a decent work rider with 34.78/30.43 % strike rate for Tarry and should be part of a Tarry double with R3. Nothing coming close on BAT form over 1600 on his last run 20200107 2.18 BAT84 run over CD. Pacific Dream (7.50) only had the 1 run but the 1200 VAC showed a very decent 6.25 RED BAT84 and if suited to the longer straight on only his 2nd run he may be challenging with a J/T combo of 50/25% showing intent claims. Next best over the 1600 VAL is an extreme roughy Eightintheeight (50.00) 1/3 for Zackey that could have place top 4 value and got some support from huge odds last 2 runs 33 into 25 and 12 into 10 and 20 into 9 so could compete at a nice price supported by a JT combo of 0/100% so good P4 value here. Hold Your Horses (60.00) improved with a BAT42 of 3.44 over 1400 Vaal last run and that over 1600 VAL will make him competitive here. Fort Alado (55.00) 1/2 for Chris Erasmus is dropping in trip with blinkers fitted for focus and a 14.02 BAT84 run 20200123 shows a chance to get into the back end of the quartet. Sun Giant (7.00) has been getting support but not been producing so also drops in trip but was beaten by 6 odd lengths by Fort Alado (55.00) on 20200123. Great Esteem (7.00) had a very decent 3.6 BAT42 over 1800 VAL last run and on that run he could run into the places if repeating over 1600. Bend the Knee (16.00 from the Gray stable has an intent jockey booking and his support last run 33 into 18 seems he is improving. 1st timer Wylie the Great (25.00) for only runner H van der Westhuizen should be watched for any support
R2:very little for IPS to choose between Mynage(2.35) and Magogo (2.85) on the run on 20200229 Magogo (2.85) claimed from 12/1 into 3.5/1 and Mynage (2.35) went from 3/1 into 5/1 both on debut and Magogo (2.35) managed to win that one BUT Mynage (2.35) had a subsequent run and also has 3 kg less to carry today so a slight preference for Mynage (2.35) here to beat Magogo (2.85) This is a juveniles race and we have not seen many going the 1400 yet so there could be a surprise here as well … Zernez (3.30) went backwards on Bat figures between 1000 TUR of 7.51 and 1160 TUR of 12.54 so with the best BAT42 it is unsure whether the extra 240 will suit and low PSTAT support only 9.09% on AT and MS but best BAT84 a 26.36% to WIN Miss Elegance 920.00) is carrying only 53 on debut and could be anything as 1st timer and cloth of Ice was better than the run suggests when running against Mynage (2.35) and magogo (2.85) so could be a surprise as well. Oksana (40.00) also had a pretty decent 12.65 debut on RED BAT trying 1400 and could be a surprise as well so a race to be careful in but nothing else should be winning this
R3: Siren of Greece (1.25) shows a 54.55% to Win on SR% supported by best ORA, ERA, AT, SR, F, Tcurve and BATC BUT HAS NOT DONE THE DISTANCE. Fire and Ice (1.15) has best GRA a 36.36% to WIN supported by best MS, BAM42, BAM84, BAM168, BAMC, BAT42, BAT84, BAT168 and gets a 4kg Appie claim that will help to overcome the extra distance BUT HAS NOT DONE THE DISTANCE. Edaara (14.00) lost to Fire and Ice (1.15) on 20200222 and Siren of Greece (1.25) n 20200212 but must be noted that Edaara (14.00) was better supported in the market on those days and gets Blinkers fitted today BUT AGAIN HAS NOT DONE THE DISTANCE The Eight Lord (8.00) has the best BAT42 of 12.40 supported by having done the distance and Spies is probably the best with juveniles and ½ for J Sampson , the other one in the 8th a good prospect and is carrying 3kg less today. Both 1st timers blue Moon City (6.50) and Back to black (16.00) could be anything as best INTENT a 36.36% to WIN for Blue Moon City and Back to Black a 36.35% to win on S so may just as well run the 1st t2 positions in the bipot… tough race if Tarry does not execute his double plans here.
R4: GREY STREET (3.30) gets no less than 14/20 indicators as best rated best of those BATC at 38.46 % and 30.77% on GRA, T and Thackeray retains the ride with also best ORA, GRA, ERA, SR, EDMS, F, SR%, BAT42, BAT84, BAT168 so a like as E/W probability here. Kool Baikal (3.30) is only runner for Sage and Yeni takes the ride in a bit of form atm also best BAMC a 23.0% to WIN but his Bat from last 2 runs 1800 TFI a 16.66 and then 2000 VAL a 21.35 BAT42 does not suggest that the 2400 should suit. Abdul (0.85) is an odds on favorite but his BAT42 of 20.73 last run is worse than GREY STREET (3.30) last run and the run prior to that over 1800 VAC a 25.11 even worse so no certainty whether he will like the 2400 either. Nothing else giving any feeling of liking the 2400 so these 3 should find the winner with a liking by IPS to GREY STREET (3.30) providing value as well
R5: a TOUGH RACE with very little PSTATS support to show . Bellagio King (16.00) is value here with bling taking the ride over this CD a winner here last time with also the best BAT42 figure of 3.43 on that run 20200213 so definitely some value at that price with bling 2-1-1 on the horse it’s hit or miss so far. Serendipity (16.00) has no weight to carry 49.5 kg and seems to have improved on his last 2 runs from a 12.19 BAT84 over 1400 Val to a 6.99 last run over 1600 VAL so the extra 200 could suit as a previous 1800 TUR was a 2nd but that ride was with T Juglall that now has his only ride for the day on Theravada (7.50) ½ for Woodrufff and a 7.07 BAT84 on the 20200121 run with best SR and MS . African Adventure (6.50) is ½ for Soma and Lerena booked with best ORA, GRA, ERA, EDMS, SR%, BAT42, BAT84, BAT168 so must be considered here. Shabba Ranks (25.00) has good previous BAT form over the CD and best BAM84 run on 20200104. Tough Choice(8.00) this race is indeed with Penny only ride this race and a 2nd the previous time she ran. Canquari (33.00) last run a Bat of 6.43 very good improving 46 lengths from previous Bat run so could be improving more. RockStar Child (14.00) only runner for Janse Van Vuuren has a 4th last 1800 run and a 3rd last C Habib ride over 2000 20200118. CapeTown Affair has best BATC and BAM168 here ½ for Fortune and Yeni riding Kings Cup last run with Simons was a godo run and he retains the ride Gentleman Only last run a 2nd and retains the ride with appie claim Anagram (12.00) is improving and Murray gets the ride.. .. the list goes on and on .. USE A PIN but field for exotics for IPS
R6:Tahitian Orana (7.50) gets Bl fitted again today and with khumalo that has a 4-2-1 record on him as well as best GRA, Tcurve, BAM42, BAM84, BAM168 and BATC he has a say in yet another OPEN AFFAIR. Rabia The Rebel (14.00) has best ORA, F, I and Webber in form with Yeni booked. Jive Express (4.50) WON his last 1800 race and with best SR, EDMS, SR% and decent BATS also has a shout. Heart of a Legend 97.00) best MS, best BAT42, BAT84, BAT168 with Lerena Booked another with a chance Tombola (12.00) carries only 53.5 and a 1 draw for an in form stable with good last Bat run another chance. Now you see me (8.00) has a 1,2,2,1,2,6 record last runs and good BAT supports with a jock change so can pop up .. GO WIDE IN EXOTICS AGAIN as many as you can
R7: AKWAAN (3.30) look a decent prospect with a 52.94% chance to Win on Tcurve and after the scratching of Opening Gambit now superior on BAT42 by 8.25 to next best War Jewel (7.50) as well as bolt consistency so must take a chance somewhere and this seems a good place for exotics. Category Four (12.00) has been below form of late but the change to Khumalo may fix that since his BATS is not far off all the time and previously consistent 2,3,3,3,2 and now coming back last 3 runs from 12,4,3 this may nbe a strike run again . War Jewel (10.00) last run as discussed with Syster was 2nd best BAT in the field and that could make him compete again and Father Time (16.00) only runner Nieuwenhuizen has a 10/60% JT combo with Maujean on a runner trying the distance so must be respected to like the 1600. City Dancer has an ok BAT 1600 run and only ride for Lerena to make bread money and Liberado (12.00) has ok BAT form CD too and a recent CD win for Schwartz from 25/1 so could pop up as well Waquaas now gets the services of Lerena and best SR% a 17.65% to w so IPS takes a chance with the 52.94% to Win on Tcurve and 14/20 TOP indicators on AKWAAN on his last run claiming all of those back from the rest .. 2nd RR But too tough a nut to crack at the Vaal otherwise.
R8:Roger the Dodger (3.50) had a very impressive debut and gets supported with PSTATS a 58.33% to WIN on ORA as well as best GRA, AT, SR, MS, F, Tcurve 33% to Win , BAM42, BAT42, BAT84, BAT168 Grindelwald (3.50) has Lerena booked and best ERA a 41.67% to WIN with EDMS 33% to Win and best STAT and Intent as well as Super Rule % and 2nd best BATS behind Roger. StrikeitlikeaMatch (10.00) has kjhumalo ooked and best BATC so must be included on exotics and Bridge of Spies (12.00) seems a decent enough outsider ½ for Binda on BATS as well . Mr Hugo (25.00) can be anything on BAMS best and returning from a rest and undisclosed is another that could pop up but time running out to say more… have a GREAT LOCKDOWN guys and enjoy the break and STAY SAFE OUT THERE.. REMEMBER
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